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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well if you buy that, then this incoming supposed good pattern is gonna be REALLY short lived..like maybe 5 days long..if you buy that.  Cuz that says late Jan to late Feb. And by the time the good pattern sets in..it’s gonna be close to Late Jan. 

10 days of really favorable period.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't mean it can't snow in February....just not as good of a pattern. If blocking remains, its serviceable...if not, then we will need alot of luck. 

True.  But I don’t think I’m buying that look that was posted...but that’s just me.  Very low skill at that type of range imo. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well if you buy that, then this incoming supposed good pattern is gonna be REALLY short lived..like maybe 5 days long..if you buy that.  Cuz that says late Jan to late Feb. And by the time the good pattern sets in..it’s gonna be Late Jan. 

It's not ending late Jan. If anything the rush to a more Nina Feb is just that...rushed.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't mean it can't snow in February....just not as good of a pattern. If blocking remains, its serviceable...if not, then we will need alot of luck. 

There’s a lot of that type of mentality though when we’ve gone a while without snow. Everyone starts looking for the perfect pattern. 

Then everyone assumes once the ideal pattern breaks down, it means it is hostile and cannot produce snowstorms. That’s a false assumption but easy to fall into when there’s been a snow drought. 

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a lot of that type of mentality though when we’ve gone a while without snow. Everyone starts looking for the perfect pattern. 

Then everyone assumes once the ideal pattern breaks down, it means it is hostile and cannot produce snowstorms. That’s a false assumption but easy to fall into when there’s been a snow drought. 

 

Very good points..agreed. 
 

But that map was being posted by that service to say no more winter...so they were pushing their idea and grandstanding on social media imo. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not ending late Jan. If anything the rush to a more Nina Feb is just that...rushed.

Whatever...early Feb. I have said before, I could even see a phase change event in the early days of Feb. My point is the pattern should start breaking down early in Feb. Probably EPO before the NAO....arctic may put up a fight.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a lot of that type of mentality though when we’ve gone a while without snow. Everyone starts looking for the perfect pattern. 

Then everyone assumes once the ideal pattern breaks down, it means it is hostile and cannot produce snowstorms. That’s a false assumption but easy to fall into when there’s been a snow drought. 

 

It actually never seems to snow when the "epic pattern" arrives and instead storms sneak up on everyone...

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5 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

When do the new 30 year averages start? 

I assume they already have so are all these anomaly maps now using 1991-2020 average temps to measure against? 

Those won’t get implemented until next season I don’t think. They calculate them this year but all the data has to go through QC I’d assume before they finalize it. 

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, testy in his responses to others comments on Twitter. 

I do see a path to a serviceable Feb if blocking hangs in....I don't mean to go Bamwx and be a dick. That is the main concern w my Feb forecast, but I am confident EPO goes bye bye. Think blocking does wane, but depends on how much of a fight it puts up.

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It actually never seems to snow when the "epic pattern" arrives and instead storms sneak up on everyone...

I wouldn’t say never. Often times it’s “delayed but not denied” as referenced in here by some of us when we make fun of the melts in January 2015 and 2013. 

But you are right that often the best storms or even the start of a good snow run sneaks up on people. I’ve seen people obsess over day 8 or 9 threats and then something sneaks up inside of 4 days and gives us warning criteria snowfall. 

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3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Let’s be honest, nobody in here has any idea what the weather will be for the month of February. I’m not saying we shouldn’t try to advance the science, but your guess and mine right now are as good as a coin flip.

No, I think my call is better than the avg person's guess , and is better than a coin flip.. just being honest. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I think my guess is better than the avg person, and is better than a coin flip.. just being honest. 

Not a knock on you or anyone, it’s just that there are too many variables that can change or come out of the blue to make anything longer than a few weeks to a month lead time much better than guesswork. Educated guesswork, yes, maybe, but the proof is in the pudding of seasonal forecasts which in my experience have never been all that great (not saying you specifically). 

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Just now, greenmtnwx said:

Not a knock on you or anyone, it’s just that there are too many variables that can change or come out of the blue to make anything longer than a few weeks to a month lead time much better than guesswork. Educated guesswork, yes, maybe, but the proof is in the pudding of seasonal forecasts which in my experience have never been all that great (not saying you specifically). 

Yea, not a huge diff....but just saying hours of research do make a bit of a diff. Don't take that the wrong way, I don't mean it in an arrogant way...

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, not a huge diff....but just saying hours of research do make a bit of a diff. Don't take that the wrong way, I don't mean it in an arrogant way...

And I don’t mean it as a knock on science or research to stop trying, maybe one day it will come. It’s just so damn variable. Who knew in mid December after the big one that we’d have an all time cutter followed by a month of partly cloudy marine type boring cool days bootleg nights with nary a drop. 

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12 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

And I don’t mean it as a knock on science or research to stop trying, maybe one day it will come. It’s just so damn variable. Who knew in mid December after the big one that we’d have an all time cutter followed by a month of partly cloudy marine type boring cool days bootleg nights with nary a drop. 

Yea, I thought the second half of Dec would have had at least one more event....but I honestly called for a boring January. Composite was dry.. also saw some SWFE, which has worked out. Been warmer than I thought due to mins, but that should cool off second half of month.

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19 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

And I don’t mean it as a knock on science or research to stop trying, maybe one day it will come. It’s just so damn variable. Who knew in mid December after the big one that we’d have an all time cutter followed by a month of partly cloudy marine type boring cool days bootleg nights with nary a drop. 

Everyone, because it snowed in October. 

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I could def see pattern the first week or two in Feb like the one we are about to come out of, with a +EPO and neg NAO.....not great, but serviceable. And it may work out better w a little luck bc the pattern will reset. Probably less likely to see suppression at that point in the season w peak snowfall climo.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could def see pattern the first week or two in Feb like the one we are about to come out of, with a +EPO and neg NAO.....not great, but serviceable. And it may work out better w a little luck bc the pattern will reset.

I think we just need more chances, it’s been a dry stretch and a few weeks of climo without a good run of shortwaves producing weather.  I think you’re right, get the flow “excited” and see what happens.  Anything other than dry and boring from a weather enthusiast perspective.

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