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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think I cracked into the 40s on Jan 2nd....since then all the highs have been between 31-39. Lows have been a little more variable...a couple times we snuck to 18-19F but mostly lows are in the 25F range.

About as stale and dull of a pattern as you can get.....though it makes sense if you dive deeper. We've just been stuck under the NAO blocking and an unfavorable PAC. Usually we would get a shortwave to develop into it and shake up the monotony with a decent snow event at least once in a 10-12 day period, but that hasn't happened. It's unfortunate as we didn't have a lack of shortwaves....they just never aligned correctly and we had a bunch of destructive interference. So we're left with this.

Hopefully the increased baroclinicity will make it easier to pop something. Hell, even a couple of 2-4" clippers mixed in would be nice at this point.

Clippers lol.......we don't get those anymore 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you have any theory on why every, single SW this season has attenuated on approach to the region?

I've noticed that too... It's been everywhere ( time and spaces, and all models tho - all year... 

I am not sure if this was doing so last year ...year(s) before and so on...but, the mid and particular extended range features have tended to significantly attenuate nearing the 96 and 120 hour range.  Some siggy bombs have ended up clippery sliders too, when once deeply wound - it's been pretty pronounced. 

I don't know..I've mused before that it's like the full foreboding moon coming over the horizon a very clear evening... IT looks absolutely ginormous - 

It's like a metaphor... The models seem to magnify these things, and in more practical terms, there's something about the physical handling in the models that is over assessing matters out in time. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... I was too impressed frankly ...seeing as my opinion matters lol

no, but that flow is too fast and the waves are interfering with one-another too much to be very confident that much will evolve of that parade of loudness and not actually impact -

From not enough gradient, to too much.

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