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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Loop this. It's the Canadian, but see how the s/w at hr 204 in the Gulf goes poof. In this case the PV in Canada and lack of a decent ridge out west (for now on this model) just can't allow for things to buckle and take off. 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2021011212&fh=120

Isn't the ridge centered over Cuba another turd in the punchbowl?  It seems to keep the height fields over the eastern US highly compressed.  Edit: I am focusing at the hour 210 failure.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, totally....it gets provides the impetus for the entire pattern change....well, enhances it, anyway.

If the 16th keeps shifting a bit east, I think it will make the likely hood of something around the 18th miss east, Those two are pretty close together as modeled.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The 12/23 event would be right up Rays alley. Blows its load well SW of us over the ocean and we are left with scraps and an advisory event. The fish south of Long Island would probably pound 2-3” an hour, though.

1/23?

Doesn't matter at this range, but this is not a SW blow pattern.....nor does that solution look like it to me.

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I have to admit, I'm not admitting defeat, but all of these different models had portrayed such a pattern change. Even better than last year oh, and nothing has happened. I'm not sure why these models even exist if they can't get anything right. I'm disappointed to say the least. Looks like things just aren't working out how we thought, it's deja vu from last year. I hold out hope because we still have two weeks left in this month all of February and even the first two to three weeks of March. But, I'm disappointed so far

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Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I have to admit, I'm not admitting defeat, but all of these different models had portrayed such a pattern change. Even better than last year oh, and nothing has happened. I'm not sure why these models even exist if they can't get anything right. I'm disappointed to say the least. Looks like things just aren't working out how we thought, it's deja vu from last year. I hold out hope because we still have two weeks left in this month all of February and even the first two to three weeks of March. But, I'm disappointed so far

You have to be kidding....you fight me tooth and nail for being pessimistic in a flawed pattern, then bail on the eve of the legit pattern. :lol:

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14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I have to admit, I'm not admitting defeat, but all of these different models had portrayed such a pattern change. Even better than last year oh, and nothing has happened. I'm not sure why these models even exist if they can't get anything right. I'm disappointed to say the least. Looks like things just aren't working out how we thought, it's deja vu from last year. I hold out hope because we still have two weeks left in this month all of February and even the first two to three weeks of March. But, I'm disappointed so far

Really....when things were looking pretty bleak, you’re telling everybody to stay positive(which I agreed with you on).  Now it’s looking quite promising(the pattern anyway) and things could be lining up, and you’re going the other way?   
 

You kind of just took away any shred of credibility/believability/and seriousness to your posting abilities.  

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What happened?  I remember a big widespread event.  Local subby zone?

8C10FDB1-8EEE-495A-BDDD-58CD4817ECE4.gif.45abd9a95aef573bf69d18e7198cf561.gif

Yea, as is prone to happening in my area, I got caught between intense low level fonto JUST to my south and east, and some mid level goodies back over ORH CO (where else?). The coastal frontogenesis was particularly intense, and augmented by OES assist bc it was a very cold storm. What also compounded the mesoscale nature of the snowfall was that cyclogenesis was fairly middling. Perfect recipe for subby screwgie.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Really....when things were looking pretty bleak, you’re telling everybody to stay positive(which I agreed with you on).  Now it’s looking quite promising(the pattern anyway) and things could be lining up, and you’re going the other way?   
 

You kind of just took away any shred of credibility/believability/and seriousness to your posting abilities.  

And you wonder why I can melt. Weenies are frustrating. 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, as is prone to happening in my area, I got caught between intense low level fonto JUST to me south and east, and some mid level goodies back over ORH CO (where else?). The coastal fronto genesis was particularly intense, and augmented by OES assist. What also compounded the mesoscale nature of the snowfall was that cyclogenesis was fairly middling. Perfect recipe for subby screwgie.

Thinking back, I feel like my college girlfriends parents house got like 36” in that one.  They were in Topsfield.  The photos looked legit 36”, I remember being blown away by the pics and thinking all of NE Mass must’ve gotten smoked.  Made 20” in BTV feel lackluster ha.

Edit: I may be thinking of 2005 actually.  There was a while there they seemed to get 24+ on the north shore in a bunch of events in that Beverly, Topsfield, Danvers, Peabody area.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Meh on superstorm 93. Dec 05 was better. 

Storm was not meh for me....maybe because you are used to wind and drifts, but I have never seen anything  like the drifts in my area. 15" front end dump, but like 5' drifts....never seen that before here...to this day.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Storm was not meh for me....maybe because you are used to wind and drifts, but I have never seen anything  like the drifts in my area. 15" front end dump, but like 5' drifts....never seen that before here...to this day.

I felt like it was over and done in like 3 hrs. I will say the uber height of it was good. 

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I jacked in 12/9/2005, but I have to say that I would rather do the superstorm over again...comparable amounts of snowfall, but that wind and drifting was/is unprecedented for me....distant comps probably Boxing day and Feb 2013....little flash freeze event in March 2005 was impressive, too, but March super storm in league of its own for wind and drifting.

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