Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Loop this. It's the Canadian, but see how the s/w at hr 204 in the Gulf goes poof. In this case the PV in Canada and lack of a decent ridge out west (for now on this model) just can't allow for things to buckle and take off. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=atl&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2021011212&fh=120 Isn't the ridge centered over Cuba another turd in the punchbowl? It seems to keep the height fields over the eastern US highly compressed. Edit: I am focusing at the hour 210 failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh, totally....it gets provides the impetus for the entire pattern change....well, enhances it, anyway. If the 16th keeps shifting a bit east, I think it will make the likely hood of something around the 18th miss east, Those two are pretty close together as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The 12/23 event would be right up Rays alley. Blows its load well SW of us over the ocean and we are left with scraps and an advisory event. The fish south of Long Island would probably pound 2-3” an hour, though. 1/23? Doesn't matter at this range, but this is not a SW blow pattern.....nor does that solution look like it to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I have to admit, I'm not admitting defeat, but all of these different models had portrayed such a pattern change. Even better than last year oh, and nothing has happened. I'm not sure why these models even exist if they can't get anything right. I'm disappointed to say the least. Looks like things just aren't working out how we thought, it's deja vu from last year. I hold out hope because we still have two weeks left in this month all of February and even the first two to three weeks of March. But, I'm disappointed so far 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: I have to admit, I'm not admitting defeat, but all of these different models had portrayed such a pattern change. Even better than last year oh, and nothing has happened. I'm not sure why these models even exist if they can't get anything right. I'm disappointed to say the least. Looks like things just aren't working out how we thought, it's deja vu from last year. I hold out hope because we still have two weeks left in this month all of February and even the first two to three weeks of March. But, I'm disappointed so far You have to be kidding....you fight me tooth and nail for being pessimistic in a flawed pattern, then bail on the eve of the legit pattern. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You have to be kidding....you fight me tooth and nail for being pessimistic in a flawed pattern, then bail on the eve of the legit pattern. LOL, I was about to say that. I don't get it. The was the best op run in days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Try being me in in 12/5/03....11", my dad 8 miles away had 26"....10 miles east of me had about 38". Try being me missing 2/6/78; 3/13/93; 12/5/03; 12/9/05. Scarred for life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, I was about to say that. I don't get it. The was the best op run in days. Poster child for 5 PPD if I have ever seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: Try being me missing 2/6/78; 3/13/93; 12/5/03; 12/9/05. Scarred for life. I wish i had missed 12/5/03....I feel violated by ole' man winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 At least we will have cold air near by coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wish i had missed 12/5/03....I feel violated by ole' man winter. I get that but where I lived it was 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Dec 5, 2003 is def. my worst winter memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbydoppler Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 GFS dangling the proverbial carrots in the long range. Is there any chance, or say what's the probability of a switch being flipped here in the next couple of weeks and we go below normal temps for an extended period of time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wish i had missed 12/5/03....I feel violated by ole' man winter. Mother nature walked in and said bend over...with old man winter right behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, UnitedWx said: Mother nature walked in and said bend over...with old man winter right behind Synoptic incest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I have to admit, I'm not admitting defeat, but all of these different models had portrayed such a pattern change. Even better than last year oh, and nothing has happened. I'm not sure why these models even exist if they can't get anything right. I'm disappointed to say the least. Looks like things just aren't working out how we thought, it's deja vu from last year. I hold out hope because we still have two weeks left in this month all of February and even the first two to three weeks of March. But, I'm disappointed so far Really....when things were looking pretty bleak, you’re telling everybody to stay positive(which I agreed with you on). Now it’s looking quite promising(the pattern anyway) and things could be lining up, and you’re going the other way? You kind of just took away any shred of credibility/believability/and seriousness to your posting abilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dec 5, 2003 is def. my worst winter memory. What happened? I remember a big widespread event. Local subby zone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Isn't the ridge centered over Cuba another turd in the punchbowl? It seems to keep the height fields over the eastern US highly compressed. Edit: I am focusing at the hour 210 failure. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What happened? I remember a big widespread event. Local subby zone? Yea, as is prone to happening in my area, I got caught between intense low level fonto JUST to my south and east, and some mid level goodies back over ORH CO (where else?). The coastal frontogenesis was particularly intense, and augmented by OES assist bc it was a very cold storm. What also compounded the mesoscale nature of the snowfall was that cyclogenesis was fairly middling. Perfect recipe for subby screwgie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Really....when things were looking pretty bleak, you’re telling everybody to stay positive(which I agreed with you on). Now it’s looking quite promising(the pattern anyway) and things could be lining up, and you’re going the other way? You kind of just took away any shred of credibility/believability/and seriousness to your posting abilities. And you wonder why I can melt. Weenies are frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What happened? I remember a big widespread event. Local subby zone? Tremendous storm with 3 to 5 feet drifts , one of my favorites 20 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: I get that but where I lived it was 2 feet Meh on superstorm 93. Dec 05 was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, as is prone to happening in my area, I got caught between intense low level fonto JUST to me south and east, and some mid level goodies back over ORH CO (where else?). The coastal fronto genesis was particularly intense, and augmented by OES assist. What also compounded the mesoscale nature of the snowfall was that cyclogenesis was fairly middling. Perfect recipe for subby screwgie. Thinking back, I feel like my college girlfriends parents house got like 36” in that one. They were in Topsfield. The photos looked legit 36”, I remember being blown away by the pics and thinking all of NE Mass must’ve gotten smoked. Made 20” in BTV feel lackluster ha. Edit: I may be thinking of 2005 actually. There was a while there they seemed to get 24+ on the north shore in a bunch of events in that Beverly, Topsfield, Danvers, Peabody area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Meh on superstorm 93. Dec 05 was better. Storm was not meh for me....maybe because you are used to wind and drifts, but I have never seen anything like the drifts in my area. 15" front end dump, but like 5' drifts....never seen that before here...to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And you wonder why I can melt. Weenies are frustrating. Agree with you on that. Ya that post was just ridiculous. What’s he looking at?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Tremendous storm with 3 to 5 feet drifts , one of my favorites 20 inches here I am amazed you pulled 5' drifts in that....I don't recall much wind, as it was a fairly weak low. Not doubting you, just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Storm was not meh for me....maybe because you are used to wind and drifts, but I have never seen anything like the drifts in my area. 15" front end dump, but like 5' drifts....never seen that before here...to this day. I felt like it was over and done in like 3 hrs. I will say the uber height of it was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Incredible run, 2 shortwaves closing off south of LI and a third storm to follow. Shows the upside of the pattern one would think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 I jacked in 12/9/2005, but I have to say that I would rather do the superstorm over again...comparable amounts of snowfall, but that wind and drifting was/is unprecedented for me....distant comps probably Boxing day and Feb 2013....little flash freeze event in March 2005 was impressive, too, but March super storm in league of its own for wind and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I felt like it was over and done in like 3 hrs. I will say the uber height of it was good. Well, it was a mega SWFE...the snow was, whatever....but the drifting was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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