MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Weenie gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Weenie gfs run Should be more to come with this look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, I would be pumped and starting a thread if I were you. LOL I am not falling for your trap. That's the kiss of death. Keep those salty tears coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: LOL I am not falling for your trap. That's the kiss of death. Keep those salty tears coming. I don't want it to fall apart...I honestly couldn't care any less, which is why I can't wait for the 4 of you to move to a CJ thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Do you have any theory on why every, single SW this season has attenuated on approach to the region? We have had a lot of Pacific flow. Fast flow that doesn't really allow any S/W to amp up and buckle. I thought the 18th took a step in a good direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: LOL I am not falling for your trap. That's the kiss of death. Keep those salty tears coming. This is when 40/70 shines. Very close to some Mooseknuckle, NH comment. Though the best are after dark. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 We have not had a lot of meridional flow. You'll have something briefly favorable, and then a ridge buckles and breaks off into the west and you're left with a weak + tilted trough from NM to WV. That should change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: We have had a lot of Pacific flow. Fast flow that doesn't really allow any S/W to amp up and buckle. I thought the 18th took a step in a good direction. I know that, but I mean relative to the life cycle of the SW...they are always at their nadir as they pass our longitude. Its like a longwave defect in the pattern for us this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: We have not had a lot of meridional flow. You'll have something briefly favorable, and then a ridge buckles and breaks off into the west and you're left with a weak + tilted trough from NM to WV. That should change. I agree it will change, but it seems they always deamplify as they approach us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know that, but I mean relative to the life cycle of the SW...they are always at their nadir as they pass our longitude. Its like a longwave defect in the pattern for us this season. I think more in my post above. Just need the flow to buckle, and we have not had that. The flow in Canada has remained progressive in a way and the height field cannot buckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This is when 40/70 shines. Very close to some Mooseknuckle, NH comment. Though the best are after dark. You won't get my best material because we are on the verge of a good pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree it will change, but it seems they always deamplify as they approach us. Also, no baroclinicity. That is the fuel. No real fuel, no s/w energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think more in my post above. Just need the flow to buckle, and we have not had that. The flow in Canada has remained progressive in a way and the height field cannot buckle. I know, but you would expect the timing of these nuances to change, and it has not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Also, no baroclinicity. That is the fuel. No real fuel, no s/w energy. Yea, but you would think out of sheer luck one would wax as it nears....no breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Obviously clown range, but that is a completely viable solution on the GFS IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, but you would think out of sheer luck one would wax as it nears....no breaks. Sometimes it is hard to quantify. Things aren't linear. IOW, maybe one slight thing is off and the whole thing just can't get together in time, or blows up way offshore. You just remove that one feature making it hard on s/w's to amplify and boom..it would come up the coast. It's almost the opposite of 2015. We had everything perfectly in place to go well for us. Move something or change a feature ever so slightly and our snowfall could have been cut in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I don't know if that helps to understand, Ray. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 50 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Was one of them on a Saturday night and the Pats played with the snow still in the stands? I remember the fans throwing snow up in the air to one of the songs, it was pretty cool and they won the Super Bowl that year. As 40/70 responded, that was 2003. That's been my avatar for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Sometimes it is hard to quantify. Things aren't linear. IOW, maybe one slight thing is off and the whole thing just can't get together in time, or blows up way offshore. You just remove that one feature making it hard on s/w's to amplify and boom..it would come up the coast. It's almost the opposite of 2015. We had everything perfectly in place to go well for us. Move something or change a feature ever so slightly and our snowfall could have been cut in half. This is what I mean.....some timing nuance in the longwave pattern is just off. Was also thinking 2015 inverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You won't get my best material because we are on the verge of a good pattern. Until it doesn't perform because of "bad luck" then we get an all time rant out of you, Would hate to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Until it doesn't perform because of "bad luck" then we get an all time rant out of you, Would hate to see it. I wouldn't hold your breath, and I see you haven't, as evidenced by the crickets chirping after the bet proposal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is what I mean.....some timing nuance in the longwave pattern is just off. Was also thinking 2015 inverse. Loop this. It's the Canadian, but see how the s/w at hr 204 in the Gulf goes poof. In this case the PV in Canada and lack of a decent ridge out west (for now on this model) just can't allow for things to buckle and take off. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=atl&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2021011212&fh=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I think Will mentioned it yesterday, but 1/18 one to watch as stated earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't hold your breath, and I see you haven't, as evidenced by the crickets after the bet proposal. That would be a fools bet, Odds are something "should" fall in that period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 storms on the gfs We track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think Will mentioned it yesterday, but 1/18 one to watch as stated earlier. Eh.....sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: 3 storms on the gfs We track Yea, I'm just tempered by the lead time, at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1/16 will play a roll in what happens or not around 1/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 1/16 will play a roll in what happens or not around 1/18. Oh, totally....it gets provides the impetus for the entire pattern change....well, enhances it, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 The 12/23 event would be right up Rays alley. Blows its load well SW of us over the ocean and we are left with scraps and an advisory event. The fish south of Long Island would probably pound 2-3” an hour, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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