Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 35 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Jan 2015 will always haunt me here in NYC. I know you guys got smoked but the fact that 2’-3’ was expected and only got 11” hurts. That and only a mere 25 miles made the difference between 1’ totals to 2’ totals Wasn't that the giant Euro bust of all timers ?? I think that was the one when the Euro came in at like 60 or 72 hours out, ...well inside it's theoretical 'unbeatable' performance windoe of less than 4 days too ..., and put up 30" inside of a 72 mph CCB low-level cryo jet! Sending NWS scrambling to get blizzard warnings up for an event that by virtue of population/demographics would mean probably a NESDIS ( using K.U. for instance ) of 6~! ... Phew...just got it in with barely enough time to get the homeless into shelters and the Nat Guard on stand-by and just then, the 24 hour models were snow showers - ... Gotta be a burp run, right? Sort of... the 11" was made to be flurries in the specter of all that dramatic shit show - Thing that's interesting about that is the bust was prooobably - I'm wondering ... - worse for the weather 'com-con' community and the forecasters then it was for the public in an interesting psycho-babble twist. I wonder that because 11" toted along sideways in 55 mph gusts at 15 F is ferocious enough and to the J.Q. Public, which is the real 99th percentile bio-mass ( lol ) ...that may have been plenty severe enough to have warranted said drama... or at least closed the interpretive gap on a busting vs realization toward the latter.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Try being me in in 12/5/03....11", my dad 8 miles away had 26"....10 miles east of me had about 38". Was that the one that had a 50+" in Maine or New Hampshire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Was that the one that had a 50+" in Maine or New Hampshire? You are thinking of March 2001....it was 40"+ around Lee, NH.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You are thinking of March 2001....it was 40"+ around Lee, NH.... Now Im going to have to look it up. I think I was right December 2003 nor'easter - Wikipedia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Dec '03 had a 40"+ report in Farmington Maine that Tamarack likes to call out as likely bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, DavisStraight said: Now Im going to have to look it up. I think I was right December 2003 nor'easter - Wikipedia Well, both did....the 2001 one is legit, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Okay ... cool - so... the SSW does appear to actually be propagating. I did post a graphic and that concern late yesterday. The impetus being, if the propagation does not take place there is no physical exertion in the pV domain and so that as a forcing mechanism for pV break-down and ...blah blah blocking is likely being achieved via other pathways ( such as standard planetary wave dispersion ) at high latitudes. That's when WAA ends up at high latitudes after robust mid level cyclonic graveyard migrations ..etc... Anyway, this morning, there is a new node materializing on the graphs at GDAS, down toward the 50-70 sigma levels...; that tells us that the main (previous) emerged 5-10 sigma lobe of heat is in fact, moving down in the atmosphere ... That needs another weak to entangle in the tropopausal depths, however... which is about right on time for the total 20 day average lag correlation. Meanwhile, ...the funny aspect is the AO has been greatly depressed lower than 0 SD for a month already anyway. And no...it is not related to the presently tracking SSW/propagation - because if one knows how to read ...we need to succeed said lag ... It also lends to the discussion aspects Will and Scott and I were having regarding the futility versus usefulness of that factorization on the hemisphere ... if/when circumstances are interfering with it in a constructive version destructive sense... It's not a silver bullet into the heard of the winter vampire that saves children of winter doe-eyeds dreams and fairies... no. It's conditionally accessible as a help. If the ongoing AO is neggie already ( like now...) it's questionable if/when it's modulation is either detectable...or if so, if it means much of physical difference anyway. Other aspects ... like, it could be arriving in a +AO winter...and force the index neutral or negative, and the cold could spill out of Eurasia ... It's all around an aggrandized factor that needs to wane in popularity just like the NAO from the 1990s over-assumption of utility too -... wah wah wahhhhh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 45 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Jan 2015 will always haunt me here in NYC. I know you guys got smoked but the fact that 2’-3’ was expected and only got 11” hurts. That and only a mere 25 miles made the difference between 1’ totals to 2’ totals And the grandkids in SNJ were overjoyed at the 12-16" forecast, until it verified at 1.5" which was gone 3-4 hours after final flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wasn't that the giant Euro bust of all timers ?? I think that was the one when the Euro came in at like 60 or 72 hours out, ...well inside it's theoretical 'unbeatable' performance windoe of less than 4 days too ..., and put up 30" inside of a 72 mph CCB low-level cryo jet! Sending NWS scrambling to get blizzard warnings up for an event that by virtue of population/demographics would mean probably a NESDIS ( using K.U. for instance ) of 6~! ... Phew...just got it in with barely enough time to get the homeless into shelters and the Nat Guard on stand-by and just then, the 24 hour models were snow showers - ... Gotta be a burp run, right? Sort of... the 11" was made to be flurries in the specter of all that dramatic shit show - Yeah it definitely was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, both did....the 2001 one is legit, IMO. Was one of them on a Saturday night and the Pats played with the snow still in the stands? I remember the fans throwing snow up in the air to one of the songs, it was pretty cool and they won the Super Bowl that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, tamarack said: And the grandkids in SNJ were overjoyed at the 12-16" forecast, until it verified at 1.5" which was gone 3-4 hours after final flakes. Ouch that hurts even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, DavisStraight said: Was one of them on a Saturday night and the Pats played with the snow still in the stands? I remember the fans throwing snow up in the air to one of the songs, it was pretty cool and they won the Super Bowl that year. Dec 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 15 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What's amazing is that they still have payphones in Japan. Of all of the places that I would think that the payphone would be out dated Japan would be number one on the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Dec '03 had a 40"+ report in Farmington Maine that Tamarack likes to call out as likely bogus. Farmington (midnight obs) 6-7: 14"/26" This is the strange number. My place (9 PM obs) 6-7: 6"/18". Had S+ at 9 so prob. 12" by midnight, 12" after. New Sharon co-op (7 AM obs): 23" on 12/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 probably oversize iphone! what snow!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Ouch that hurts even more We were visiting at the time so I shared their disappointment. Then found out we'd had a 20" blizzard at home, best January snowstorm of my life, had I been there. (Got home about 12 hr after final flakes, then to do all the snow removal.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 GFS trying for 1/18-1/19? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS trying for 1/18-1/19? H5 looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just destroyed this weekend. 12z GFS takes it to the house. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS trying for 1/18-1/19? Do you have any theory on why every, single SW this season has attenuated on approach to the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Looks like 00z, just a hair more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 ICON going big too. Widespread 1-3” QPF event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just destroyed this weekend. 12z GFS takes it to the house. Outside shot hear on the coastal plain, But the 12z v16 and the 12z GFS get the trough further east with the vort @H5 tracking a bit further south too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Outside shot hear on the coastal plain, But the 12z v16 and the 12z GFS get the trough further east with the vort @H5 tracking a bit further south too. Yeah it’s definitely something to track. Plenty of juice on these runs. Going to be timing as that wave rides the frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: ICON going big too. Widespread 1-3” QPF event. That run is silly for here. The low comes right over my house and just dumps paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah it’s definitely something to track. Plenty of juice on these runs. Going to be timing as that wave rides the frontal boundary. H5 dampens out a bit as its moving ENE as the trough stays a hair more progressive before it goes negative, SLP is now either overhead or just to the east, Wouldn't take much more then another 50 miles or so east to bring the rain/snow line SE as well, At least its something to watch and not out in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Gassing up car . My combined climo between ASH and Chasing is somewhere in the 100-150” range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just destroyed this weekend. 12z GFS takes it to the house. I’m in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 The vort around the 23rd would be quite the nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: That run is silly for here. The low comes right over my house and just dumps paste. Man, I would be pumped and starting a thread if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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