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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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I honestly still think the 29th system comes northwest last second.  Short range are not as robust with the PV lobe in Ontario as the global models are and they show more amplification in the flow then the ICON, GFS and GEM models.  The NAM 3km, 12km, RGEM, all like a more amplified slower southern stream system that emerges off the NC coast, while ICON is all the way in SC!  There are three camps still, little to no interaction with the PV lobe, little interaction, and major interaction.  We will have to see what happens if anything once the energy off the West Coast settles in the Desert Southwest.  Once that is situated we will have a better idea as it will get the first shortwave out of the picture.  Severe threat looks to have two pulses in the next seven days across the Deep South.

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55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If the gfs is right I would think it’s better near the pike area and even N and E. 925-850 actually gets mild in SW CT whereas you have a better WF signature to the northeast. I’d imagine that would help. But then again gfs may be wrong. 

For us SW CT folks we need Canadian suite to be correct with the 4 to 5. American and Ukmet only 1 to 2 down here.

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Disagree with what ?

..." Is it likely probably not. .."

- the point was just not to do this 86 autopilot act that's really based upon emotion - not you per se but it's palpable and equally annoying.

Boxing Day was a significant cyclone that was routinely taken E much in the same way and corrected N in the last 48 hours ...sending NWS scrambling to get blizzard warnings out to a non-suspecting demography ...and the regulars in here rushing to make up for the 5 dayls worth of 'model cinema heroin' they missed out on...

Granted, there's been modeling upgrades along these tail-end of Moore's Law in technological advancement years since, ... in theory, improving the A.I. engine of the models...But, not joining in with that faithful congregation inside that temple of our electronic gods, in an era that's inherently got almost N/S in the mid ranges ..might just be a healthy degree if incredulity and skepticism - 

So, if you disagree with that?  Okay - I got no problem with disagreeing  LOL...

Look, I'm not a meat ball either.  This winter is a donkey dong boning for the snow enthusiasts.  I am a sympathetic, empathically aware human - unlike the girl of my dreams that recently turned out to be a sociopath ...but I digress - 

 

I disagree that:

1) Ridge axis over the plains is optimal, as I would prefer INVO the Rockies.

2) I disagree that there is still a realistic chance that this significsntly impacts us. Is this judgement at least partially biased by frustration...maybe.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This is the period when the NAO relaxes. Might be the best chance.

Yup... PNA rise, too - 

That featuring fits inside the Jan 28 - Feb 5th ( ~ ) window of fairly classic teleconnector signaling...  In this case, the latter of which may be more trustworthy because of the 'telecon convergence'  - ... Think of that as having two disparate statistical inference regions ... coming to the same conclusion at point X ... in this case, we be point X, and the disparate regions are the PNA and the NAO.   Either has a correlation to exciting/preceding a NE storm in their own right -

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree that:

1) Ridge axis over the plains is optimal, as I would prefer INVO the Rockies.

2) I disagree that there is still a realistic chance that this significsntly impacts us. Is this judgement at least partially biased by frustration...maybe.

Ok, well you're disagreeing with the 'straw man' then, because I was just outlining ( like I said, ...) the less likely means to a better outcome.

Also, the Dakotas ridge longitude is statistically clad - sorry

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