MJO812 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I know it’s hard to get excited for Lr events this year, but last nights runs definitely added intrigue for the 1st-2nd. 00z euro: Eps, cmc ens, and gefs all look favorable for that time period as well. This is the period when the NAO relaxes. Might be the best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Woah RGEM is warning level for NW CT. 24 hours of snow here with 2 to 4. Huge differences with the NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I personally don’t feel the NAO is going anywhere this year. It might briefly do so in a week to 10 days but I think it’s going to mostly remain negative the rest of the winter. The shortening wave lengths coupled with changes probably happening over on the PAC side I think would create a window well into March possibly. May not be a bad presumption ...no - We've seen "-NAO winters" do something like this in the past often enough, where just when we think the -NAO is gone... it just starts festering back into the future guidance. Personally, I've stopped looking at the NAO ...because I firmly believe the NAO is a manifestation of non-linear forcing downstream of the Pacific wave dispersion shit ...anyway, and the directive to focus on that region really should be just used to show that said processes are taking place - In other words...the forcing is coming from the Pacific in the latter wave function - it's really the type of concept and understanding that will resonate clearly in this social-media bubble, sure ... Anyway, for storm enthusiasts, ... pulsing the -NAO back to nuetral or modestly positive, rinse repeat .. probably situates events when it is rising... Then, limiting the realization going back the other way. It doesn't mean there can't be events and interesting stuff to track on the off-cycles of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 NAM is just eating it away with the sfc high nosing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Woah RGEM is warning level for NW CT. 24 hours of snow here with 2 to 4. Huge differences with the NAM RGEM has maintained the shortwave integrity better than the NAM which is why it’s liking the precip further northeast and more robust amounts where it falls. ICON does this to an even more extreme...which we can probably toss since it’s getting a few inches well into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Woah RGEM is warning level for NW CT. 24 hours of snow here with 2 to 4. Huge differences with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1-3 Tuesday night. This is how we start getting out of the slump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS looking pretty nice actually. Even better than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Rgem leading the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS looking pretty nice actually. Even better than 06z Was just going to post that. Think v16 might be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Whining paying off. Congrats pike region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Maybe an inch or two here if that is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Rgem leading the way? since we cant have the 29th, lets squeeze out as much as we can from the 26th before the cold air locks in for a bit....better than bare ground at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Spanks45 said: since we cant have the 29th, lets squeeze out as much as we can from the 26th before the cold air locks in for a bit....better than bare ground at least Another 48hr of runs and we’ll be raining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Please please please snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Serenity now, insanity later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Days and days on the gfs though as the inverted just hangs around until the 28th goes to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Another 48hr of runs and we’ll be raining. ugghhh, do not mention that, it has been trending north....probably end up with periods of freezing drizzle or snizzle for 24 hours or so after the initial "snow event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: As a blockbuster, sure. But we can move the blues 75 miles in four days and get the season's second best event for the south coast. I like the enthusiasm but if im struggling to get more than flakes down here I dont see how this would push much more north the only thing we are hoping for is a close to the coast start up but that floods a lot of areas along the coast with warmth until it bombs and flips it for locals. Track has been fairly solid with this one for the past ~2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Spanks45 said: ugghhh, do not mention that, it has been trending north....probably end up with periods of freezing drizzle or snizzle for 24 hours or so after the initial "snow event" At least it will feel like winter all week if the gfs is right. On and off Flakes in the air all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Quite unlikely considering that is the most favorable piece of guidance and the block isn’t going anywhere. Euro is significantly southeast of that. After looking at the 12z GFS...it's on to February. Edit, it's on to Tuesday, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: At least it will feel like winter all week if the gfs is right. On and off Flakes in the air all week. we might get our days and days of snow....might only add up to 2-4 inches, but I will take that any day in a season like this. Currently 25 under bright sun and it is freezing outside, at least give us some flakes in the air if it is going to be cold like this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Days and days on the gfs though as the inverted just hangs around until the 28th goes to our south. Norluns and norluns and norluns of snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Norluns and norluns and norluns of snows Ray approves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM has maintained the shortwave integrity better than the NAM which is why it’s liking the precip further northeast and more robust amounts where it falls. ICON does this to an even more extreme...which we can probably toss since it’s getting a few inches well into NNE. Said that many days ago, we’d want that shortwave to be a nuke to cut into the block some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Icon and gfs would argue for 1-3 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 If the gfs is right I would think it’s better near the pike area and even N and E. 925-850 actually gets mild in SW CT whereas you have a better WF signature to the northeast. I’d imagine that would help. But then again gfs may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GGEM is pretty decent too. Maintains that shortwave integrity longer and gets the steadier snows into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is pretty decent too. Maintains that shortwave integrity longer and gets the steadier snows into SNE. at least 24hrs of snow on that model too.....lots of light snow flying around if these models have a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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