ice1972 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 6:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow...that's deep. Expand Deeper than most want to go....we deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 7:11 AM, ice1972 said: Deeper than most want to go....we deep Expand Yea, probably about 12 deep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 EPS trended a hair better...looks like the GEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 06z GFS and its ensemble mean got better overnight, while the EURO was garbage and the UKMET was garbage. The biggest difference in the models is the lobe of PV vorticity/vortex that hangs around the GRT Lakes on the UKMET AND EURO guidance while the GFS and ensemble mean pushes the vortex to the north and has no impact. My best guess is lean the GFS and ensembles with this situation. I am guessing that the PV low does not phase with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Interesting developments last night. Looks like storm 1 just fizzles out. Storm 2 crushes the mid Atlantic on the gfs. Kind of meh on the euro, but doesn’t matter much at this stage. That was a big move on the gfs. Maybe it ends up as a blue balls scraper, but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Not much there for the 29th to climb the coast. Gfs seems like the max/best solution and that’s never a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:05 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not much there for the 29th to climb the coast. Gfs seems like the max/best solution and that’s never a good thing. Expand Ya know... That's what we've been saying about the last several storms. They have either fizzled or scooted off to our south. Doesn't look like we are getting any of these. Might it push north.... Slightest of possibilities. Although I do appreciate your enthusiasm in this horrible pattern ( which was supposed to be so good for us ). Totally like last year... I can't believe I'm saying this. Uugghh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:05 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not much there for the 29th to climb the coast. Gfs seems like the max/best solution and that’s never a good thing. Expand Just not our year it seems...I was just looking at my FB memories plastered with the 2016 blizzard stuff, maybe the 29th could be similar placement? One things for certain we might not know the answer to the 29th until we are past the 26th ordeal .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks like the arctic express coming down near the end of that GFS run. Daytime high of -30F in ND and -40F at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:09 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: Ya know... That's what we've been saying about the last several storms. They have either fizzled or scooted off to our south. Doesn't look like we are getting any of these. Might it push north.... Slightest of possibilities. Although I do appreciate your enthusiasm in this horrible pattern ( which was supposed to be so good for us ). Totally like last year... I can't believe I'm saying this. Uugghh. Expand I’ve been trying to keep the spirits up. Whining doesn’t accomplish anything...I tell that to my kids so gotta practice what I preach myself. It’s been an awful stretch, no doubt, but it’s not like it’s been 2012ish bad. There’s been some ill timed stuff that has boned us. I still like pur chances moving forward, yea I know that line has been on repeat since Jan 1st it seems but there is no way we get shutout next 30 days, no way. I’ll quit the board for a full calendar year if we do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:05 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not much there for the 29th to climb the coast. Gfs seems like the max/best solution and that’s never a good thing. Expand I kind of like seeing the GFS make these moves. In any case, that was a big shift. It wouldn't take much for a good band to scrape the S coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 At least the op runs are more active into Feb. I see all sorts of types from redevelopers to cutters. For those who said they wanted to take their chances, looks like you might. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:23 PM, CoastalWx said: I kind of like seeing the GFS make these moves. In any case, that was a big shift. It wouldn't take much for a good band to scrape the S coast. Expand Especially since the deformation bands seem to be further northwest then modeled in these large nor'easters. The 06z EURO seemed to push the vortex over Central Southern Canada towards Central Hudson Bay instead of towards eastern Ontario. That is a good sign and if the trend continues into the 12z runs, this is what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:12 PM, Spanks45 said: Just not our year it seems...I was just looking at my FB memories plastered with the 2016 blizzard stuff, maybe the 29th could be similar placement? One things for certain we might not know the answer to the 29th until we are past the 26th ordeal .. Expand Funny you mention that because I told my brother last night it has that vibe. A Roanoke to Philly special for 5 days then it makes a little climb north inside d2 to get it to the south coast of sne. These southern vorts tend to trend nw so we’ll watch it closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Sell everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:23 PM, CoastalWx said: I kind of like seeing the GFS make these moves. In any case, that was a big shift. It wouldn't take much for a good band to scrape the S coast. Expand You right. Not like it’s D3 either so we still have time to will it north. But it would be nice if Dr No became a little friendlier The UK not even having the system isn’t helping either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:14 PM, 78Blizzard said: Looks like the arctic express coming down near the end of that GFS run. Daytime high of -30F in ND and -40F at night. Expand -32 at KMSP is pushing into record territory there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:30 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You right. Not like it’s D3 either so we still have time to will it north. But it would be nice if Dr No became a little friendlier The UK not even having the system isn’t helping either. Expand Ukie blows this far out and I could care less what it shows. Euro op too. EPS is more stable and I don’t like seeing that, but we’ll see if the 6z eps makes any changes. In the end it’s probably blue balls, but even the gfs was a few inches here, mostly OES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 South coast specials and OES. Great .. that helps most of the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:46 PM, Damage In Tolland said: South coast specials and OES. Great .. that helps most of the forum Expand Might not be anything though. But, I'll gladly take a few inches if it were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 7:11 AM, ice1972 said: Deeper than most want to go....we deep Expand On 1/23/2021 at 12:48 PM, CoastalWx said: Might not be anything though. But, I'll gladly take a few inches if it were to happen. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Sell everything Expand Yep, with you there. That deal on the 29th especially leaps out as one of those systems that tantalizes for a few runs and then ends up with the deform kissing the south coast of Long Island. Not buying in to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:22 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ve been trying to keep the spirits up. Whining doesn’t accomplish anything...I tell that to my kids so gotta practice what I preach myself. It’s been an awful stretch, no doubt, but it’s not like it’s been 2012ish bad. There’s been some ill timed stuff that has boned us. I still like pur chances moving forward, yea I know that line has been on repeat since Jan 1st it seems but there is no way we get shutout next 30 days, no way. I’ll quit the board for a full calendar year if we do. Expand Man, I know you're right. I'm a dad too, I'm very optimistic 95% of the time. Just been having my doubts as of late. But, if you noticed at the end of my host that I threw a teeny bit of optimism in there LOL. I'm always the first one to say to everybody else stop being so pessimistic, my bad from my post. You're right and I know that something will break which will make us all happy. Thanks for the slap back down to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:54 PM, Hoth said: Yep, with you there. That deal on the 29th especially leaps out as one of those systems that tantalizes for a few runs and then ends up with the deform kissing the south coast of Long Island. Not buying in to this. Expand Just like the previous 5.Theres zero to track or look forward to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Picked up an inch overnight along 93 from here to MHT in a squall 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Nice flizzard happening here. 7 straight days of snow in the air with only around an inch to measure total. Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:55 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: Man, I know you're right. I'm a dad too, I'm very optimistic 95% of the time. Just been having my doubts as of late. But, if you noticed at the end of my host that I threw a teeny bit of optimism in there LOL. I'm always the first one to say to everybody else stop being so pessimistic, my bad from my post. You're right and I know that something will break which will make us all happy. Thanks for the slap back down to reality Expand Oh. I Didn’t think you were whining. I was making a generalized statement pointing to the vibe in here over the past couple weeks. Peeps are frustrated, understandably...but we have a long ways to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 1:18 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Oh. I Didn’t think you were whining. I was making a generalized statement pointing to the vibe in here over the past couple weeks. Peeps are frustrated, understandably...but we have a long ways to go. Expand Unlike the op runs back near New Years, the recent runs are much more active. Yeah maybe not everything is snow, but it certainly looks more active. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Everything coated up again. Looks and feels like winter at least 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Well looking at the EPS, she’s certainly not letting us out. Almost -EPOish with some Greenland ridging perhaps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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