40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 3:48 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It likely is, it always has been a bias of the models Expand The blocking is already here, though....that is a medium to long range issue. It's not a verification bias lol if anything, they will break it down too fast. Tell the dawn to go back to sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gfs is meh but it’s looking healthier for the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I would kill for the LR modeled QPF in the summer months. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Yeah Ray, maybe I meant the confluence streak north of Maine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Incoming 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:08 AM, MJO812 said: Incoming 2nd wave Expand An absolute beast. Come on, get up here dammit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFS was marginally better for 1/26 too even if it was still a crap result....it’s getting that shortwave pretty far north off to our west now. That’s a trend we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 DC to PHL crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Broad circulation for the 1/29 deal reminiscent of 2/8/13 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:12 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: DC to PHL crushed. Expand Actually scrapes SNE now. I was surprised to see how far north H5 was just looking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:14 AM, ORH_wxman said: Actually scrapes SNE now. I was surprised to see how far north H5 was just looking now. Expand Looks like the confluence northeast of Maine eased off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:12 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: DC to PHL crushed. Expand There is still time to bring the scraps North. Your hood definitely more favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:15 AM, RDRY said: Looks like the confluence northeast of Maine eased off a bit. Expand That's kind of the wild card in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Even gets a high end advisory up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:21 AM, 78Blizzard said: Even gets a high end advisory up here. Expand Is this the 29th ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:14 AM, ORH_wxman said: Actually scrapes SNE now. I was surprised to see how far north H5 was just looking now. Expand That would have some mid level magic from nyc to boston as is but regardless it’s d7...I like the southern vorts be south to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:22 AM, 8611Blizz said: Is this the 29th ? Expand Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The 29th system is the one we all want, not the crap system on the 26th. I would greatly sacrifice that 1-3" potential over a 976mb low at the benchmark potentially. Remember, we do not need a massive sub 970mb low at the benchmark for a widespread historic event, the Jan 05 blizzard and Jan 15 blizzards were both between 980 and 976mb as they approached the benchmark. Also the large circulation reminds me of the FEB 08, 2016 snow event, coastal blizzard! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Cmc is south for the 26th, bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The 00z GFS and CMC already disagree with that random vortex north of the Great Lakes, the GFS does not have it that far south and the CMC is trying to get the vortex involved and shunt the storm out to sea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:26 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cmc is south for the 26th, bone dry. Expand Totally different than other guidance and the 12z run up north. Amazing how it changes from run to run. Prob irrelevant north of the pike but for your area it matters a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:26 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cmc is south for the 26th, bone dry. Expand I’m not sold we even see anything on that storm down here. I think that one won’t get much north of southern CT if that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Too bad the crap gfs is drunk with the 29th though. Nothing else shows the confluence easing off to that extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:29 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Too bad the crap gfs is drunk with the 29th though. Nothing else shows the confluence easing off to that extent. Expand It is a new run, you need to watch the other guidance unfold and none of them are out far enough! Take it easy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:26 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cmc is south for the 26th, bone dry. Expand Dry bones are unhealthy bones. You want dense marrow to produce strong blood! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:30 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is a new run, you need to watch the other guidance unfold and none of them are out far enough! Take it easy! Expand You need to watch this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GGEM making a run at 1/29 as well. Not quite enough but that’s interesting at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:32 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You need to watch this: Expand Oh I am, I mean blizzard conditions but with a few inches of snow is on the table too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:29 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I’m not sold we even see anything on that storm down here. I think that one won’t get much north of southern CT if that Expand It's an interestingly dry winter pattern considering how warm it has been. Cold and dry is a thing but you don't see warm and dry January's too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 4:33 AM, ORH_wxman said: GGEM making a run at 1/29 as well. Not quite enough but that’s interesting at least. Expand Yea. It did. Pretty good effort from the second string lineup tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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