CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, HimoorWx said: This was our backyard in Randolph after the last storm. Our 42" fence is nowhere to be seen back there. The lower hook for the bird feeder is over 6' above ground. Yeah, I mean my neighbors above ground pool was getting buried over. LOL. I'm not gonna pollute this thread with 2015 debates though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEM streams 1/26 under us, then 1/29 cuts off off of the Delmarva and slides east OTS. LOL Also 100 miles North of 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 12z GFS looks good If you enjoyed the last two weeks That is not what I wanted to hear... This blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Almost there ladies. Just a little more patience is required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Persistence forecasting continues to be the best . Until something changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well gee, Ray ... I'm impressed - Yeah, okay - if you wanna play the general appreciator of weather-related anomalies card, absolutely. We do not, under those auspices, disagree at all. Folks should know me - if a comet is whizzing by, that takes precedence. It's just that in here, this is not an appreciation for weather-related anomalies ... It's a psycho-tropic stimulus addiction ...one that is rooted in the sentiment of snow. That's the audience I was directing the previous post too - I'm being a little sardonic there but seriously, I agree that 2011-2012 has its own quirky charm and fascination. No disagreement from me. I mean, John....ifs not going to snow, I'd prefer that the atmosphere let it be known very clearly, and then proceed to shower me in sensible comfort. Having an ostensibly favorable long wave pattern that meticulously plots to utilize atmospheric chaos as a vehicle for deconstructive interference, as it relates to local snowfall is beyond sadistic. All the while maniacally sinister enough to engineer the "warm" anomalies via a lengthy aggregation of mild nights. Yea, fu** me, you and every last one of us- 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Persistence forecasting continues to be the best . Until something changes And whomever nails the 'whence' that occurs gets the parade and the ladies - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Also 100 miles North of 0Z Let me melt, will ya. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Also 100 miles North of 0Z Also OP runs 7 days out...? I know let’s discuss them for sure, but to get all bent out of shape because an op run 7 and 10 days out shows something you don’t like is just silly imo. Do I think that could happen to us this season...sure. But to get upset a week out is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Hoping models get a handle on this soon and save us some sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: And whomever nails the 'whence' that occurs gets the parade and the ladies - One would think the late January partial PNA recovery would be the ultimate smoking gun....but gotta see it to believe it, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Also OP runs 7 days out...? I know let’s discuss them for sure, but to get all bent out of shape because an op run 7 and 10 days out shows something you don’t like is just silly imo. Do I think that could happen to us this season...sure. But to get upset a week out is crazy. All ensembles have also been consistently south. The amped OP runs that try to cut do not bother me in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Hoping models get a handle on this soon and save us some sleep. Who stays up at night for models? I’ve never understood that. Go to bed and see what they show in the morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Last thing we should want is a whiff....if it hugged, at least it would snow, first before any flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who stays up at night for models? I’ve never understood that. Go to bed and see what they show in the morning I should do that. I would have more hair if I did... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, 8611Blizz said: I should do that. I would have more hair if I did... Generally they are going to show bad or not desired results and you end up angry and pissed off. I’ve just never gotten why folks sacrifice hours of sleep over something they can see in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Generally they are going to show bad or not desired results and you end up angry and pissed off. I’ve just never gotten why folks sacrifice hours of sleep over something they can see in the morning. I never understood people who sleep through overnight blizzards 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Almost there ladies. Just a little more patience is required. For spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Let me melt, will ya. A Ray melt is a good start, but in my opinion we still need Scott to throw a full on DEFCON 1 thermonuclear smiting before this winter can rise reborn from the ashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I never understood people who sleep through overnight blizzards Like why stay awake until 3:00 am for a model knowing you have to be up at 6:00 am? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, John....ifs not going to snow, I'd prefer that the atmosphere let it be known very clearly, and then proceed to shower me in sensible comfort. Having an ostensibly favorable long wave pattern that meticulously plots to utilize atmospheric chaos as a vehicle for deconstructive interference, as it relates to local snowfall is beyond sadistic. All the while maniacally sinister enough to engineer the "warm" anomalies via a lengthy aggregation of mild nights. Yea, fu** me, you and every last one of us- Ah -hahahahahahahaha! Yeah ...sometimes when in lost fortunes are replaced by frustration in such elegant proportion ... it becomes difficult not to consider the super-agency theory - lol. The atmosphere does this, you know? It's like when it's got it in for a region it just doesn't relent - it hammers ...and when the region is dead and defeated, THEN, its' starts hammering ... Nature is cruel ... like an Orca (this winter) flipping a seal pup ... ah, we'd be the seal pup in that metaphor Like 2015 February - it's like Will said ( I think it was ...), we were merely mid way in the month having already shattered every 30 day snow record there is between here and Utqiagvik Alaska ... Yet, we were looking at 4th period blizzard watch, and a D8 high probability for successful verification just beyond.. It goes in both directions. The Earth makes sure ... And of course, we don't notice it when 80 or 90 some-odd % of the ballast times anomalies actually dole out in equaller proportions. In this case...we are being hammered by negatives .. that's just it. In philosophy that's basically it, the unrelenting form of plight. Question is, does it relent in time ? Back in 1956 ('57?), there was a March that racked up some 60+ inches from N. Philly to PWM after a pretty sandy serious of winter months prior. Seems harder to do that as this new climate paradigm is doing whack-a-doo things with Springs ( separate discussion vector ..lol - ) in general. But, the point is... it's academic to say, it's January f'um 19 .... You know, while on the subject, it occurs to me that all we need is +PNAP even just a little... whole aspect changes. Obviously we are in 'put up or shut up' scorched attitudes now, but we really are still in a subsume regime...Whenever we see blocking in the 60th N latitudes pearled, that is inherently slowing that W --> E coordinate relative to the 40 N. That is an "implied" cyclonic motion...and that's the initial state to get SPV's to crash in and fuse with S /stream features. We are not seeing that because the flow / PNA et al is just not allowing ANY western heights...so there's nothing to trigger those interactions - bypass prevail. But you know...? That's playing with matches there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One would think the late January partial PNA recovery would be the ultimate smoking gun....but gotta see it to believe it, at this point. 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah -hahahahahahahaha! Yeah ...sometimes when in lost fortunes replaced by frustration in elegant proportion ... it becomes difficult not to consider the super-agency theory - lol. The atmosphere does this, you know? It's like when it's got it in for a region it just doesn't relent - it hammers ...and when the region is dead and defeat. THEN, its' starts hammering ... Nature is crewel ... like an Orca (this winter) flipping a seal pup ... ah, we'd be the seal pup in that metaphor Like 2015 February - it's like Will said ( I think it was ...), we were mid way on the month already having shattered every 30 day record between here and Utqiagvik Alaska ... and we were looking at 4th period blizzard watches, and a D8 high probability for successful verification just beyond.. It goes in both directions. The Earth makes sure ... And of course, we don't notice it when 80 or 90 some-odd % of the ballast times anomalies seem to dole out in equaller proportions. In this case...we are being hammered by negatives .. that's just it. In philosophy that's basically an unrelenting plight. Question is, does it relent in time ? Back in 1956 ('57?), there was a March that racked up some 60+ inches from N. Philly to PWM after a pretty sandy serious of winter months prior. Seems harder to do that as this new climate paradigm is doing whack-a-doo things with Springs ( separate discussion vector ..lol - ) in general. But, the point is... it's academic to say, it's January f'um 19 .... You know, while on the subject, it occurs to me that all we need is +PNAP even just a little... whole aspect changes. Obviously we are in 'put up or shut up' scorched attitudes now, but we really are still in a subsume regime...Whenever we see blocking in the 60th N latitudes pearled, that is inherently slowing that W --> E coordinate relative to the 40 N. That is an "implied" cyclonic motion...and that's the initial state to get SPV's to crash in and fuse with S /stream features. We are not seeing that because the flow / PNA et al is just not allowing ANY western heights...so there's nothing to trigger those interactions - bypass prevail. But you know...? That's playing with matches there... Absolute agreement..1956, BTW...Will and I discussed it this AM. Only big second half on record for a mod or stronger la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I never understood people who sleep through overnight blizzards I've done it for everyone I've been through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: A Ray melt is a good start, but in my opinion we still need Scott to throw a full on DEFCON 1 thermonuclear smiting before this winter can rise reborn from the ashes. I won’t. After the last few seasons, I just make peace with it. I’ll probably mini melt with some wise ass comments from time to time. It’s a bit of a pressure release valve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 January has been interesting. Much warmer than average in the Lowell area. If the ground is frozen, it's only the top inch or so. The temp gradient also seems greater than normal. While it's been warmer than average up north, it's not by much. I'm seeing the typical temp difference of often more than 10 degrees at any given time between Lowell and Thornton which is much higher than usual. I feel for the folks in SNE. This month has sucked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, MarkO said: January has been interesting. Much warmer than average in the Lowell area. If the ground is frozen, it's only the top inch or so. The temp gradient also seems greater than normal. While it's been warmer than average up north, it's not by much. I'm seeing the typical temp difference of often more than 10 degrees at any given time between Lowell and Thornton which is much higher than usual. I feel for the folks in SNE. This month has sucked! I feel the exact opposite actually....the temp gradient between NNE and SNE has been very low....hence the +9 to +10 anomalies up north and the +6 to +7 anomalies in ORH and BOS. We've lacked good baroclinicity most of the month. Thought he last 2 or 3 days that hasn't been the case as there was a frontal boundary that cooled off NNE while we were still torching a bit down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I feel the exact opposite actually....the temp gradient between NNE and SNE has been very low....hence the +9 to +10 anomalies up north and the +6 to +7 anomalies in ORH and BOS. We've lacked good baroclinicity most of the month. Thought he last 2 or 3 days that hasn't been the case as there was a frontal boundary that cooled off NNE while we were still torching a bit down here. Holy shit are you kidding ... +6+ in ORH ... ? ho man... Ray's right. This is a helluva way to collect any gratification for witnessing interesting phenomenon when it feels shitty outside yet it's that "warm" - Yeah, Neptune is an inferno compared to Pluto - why choke my chicken! how riveting ...that's deliciously boring.haha making me laugh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I won’t. After the last few seasons, I just make peace with it. I’ll probably mini melt with some wise ass comments from time to time. It’s a bit of a pressure release valve. I find as I get older I care less and less about these long boring stretches. They used to eat away at me; it felt like a personal affront to not get snow, but now I can rationalize it. Now it takes a large bust inside 24 hours to send me over the edge. We had two events in 2018 that sent me into towering paroxysms of rage, but that was the last time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Holy shit are you kidding ... +6+ in ORH ... ? ho man... Ray's right. This is a helluva way to collect any gratification for witnessing interesting phenomenon when it feels shitty outside yet it's that "warm" - Yeah, Neptune is an inferno compared to Pluto - why choke my chicken! how riveting ...that's deliciously boring.haha making me laugh Here's the high temps for ORH....the only day that remotel sniffed 50F was the 47F high in the warm sector briefly on Saturday thi past weekend. Otherwise......total snoozefest way to run a torch month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 It has been a very odd stretch in terms of warmth. No really high max temps... lots of high min temps. ORH is +7.8 for the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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