mahk_webstah Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks like we’re just a little behind schedule, that’s all. That's what I think. I think it is going to get real good. All of this access to information, every model run warps perception. We have a stretch of real winter coming soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Good idea. Just as things may be waking up..or at least something to track he drops crap like that This is the complete opposite of last winter. Looking at h5, you’d think we’re snowing often but as Will said, we’ve been ‘unlucky’. I think that changes as we close out the month and into Feb, fwiw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Remember when models showed a snowstorm for today just 1 week ago? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 So 26th and 28thish or so have legs. The risk for both is suppression, but anything goes this far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So 26th and 28thish or so have legs. The risk for both is suppression, but anything goes this far out. Yes I hate to say this but I am getting a Feb 94 vibe. Some will hold me to it. I blew the 10 11 vibe, looked similar in early Jan but alas. Anyways I fully expect a lot of chances coming up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So 26th and 28thish or so have legs. The risk for both is suppression, but anything goes this far out. Completely agree. The random OP cutter runs are fraudulent. For the folks like @Damage In Tolland who are frustrated, and favor persistence.....you need a smoking gun to buy into change. I think the elevating PNA next week is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes I hate to say this but I am getting a Feb 94 vibe. Some will hold me to it. I blew the 10 11 vibe, looked similar in early Jan but alas. Anyways I fully expect a lot of chances coming up. I am a lot more optimistic for the first week or two of Feb, so hopefully our original ideas can meet in the middle and salvage a decent winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 We've been lacking a solid baroclinic zone. Maybe this upcoming period can give us that which would present better chances of frozen precip in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes I hate to say this but I am getting a Feb 94 vibe. Some will hold me to it. I blew the 10 11 vibe, looked similar in early Jan but alas. Anyways I fully expect a lot of chances coming up. You can run back the same Jan next season and with suttle nuances like spacing of vorts, etc, we’d be pretty snowy. I think your home run call was ballsy (which I like) but it also was not that far off from a big picture perspective. I know the Icey1929 types would laugh but us vets know it to be true. Anyway, I agree...good times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can run back the same Jan next season and with suttle nuances like spacing of vorts, etc, we’d be pretty snowy. I think your home run call was ballsy (which I like) but it also was not that far off. I know the Icey1929 types would laugh but us vets know it to be true. Anyway, I agree...good times ahead. I get what you mean, but I think Steve would tell you himself that if you call for a top 5 snowy month, and its nearly snowless.....its a whiff. Some busted calls are more egregious than others, and he certainly correctly identified a decent look this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Only diff with Feb 94 is that I think it was more Pacific driven....its the Atlantic that would save us this Feb IMO. I still think the month will go to crap, but it we kill it for a week or two, no one will care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 I feel like one of those two events (26 and 29) will be a mid atl special....that was a notable element in my analogs, which is why I didn't go ratter for them in a mod nina...Jan or Feb mid atl special. Hopefully they take the 26th, and leave us the follow up big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 50mb vortex splits again. Similar to this recent one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 50mb vortex splits again. Similar to this recent one. You seem to have a better mastery of the strat stuff than I do...theoretically, given the 20 day lag, etc...that could protract blocking through all of Feb, no? That would likely take an exotically warm Feb off of the table...worst case is probably like December, given the EPO should still crap out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You seem to have a better mastery of the strat stuff than I do...theoretically, given the 20 day lag, etc...that could protract blocking through all of Feb, no? That would likely take an exotically warm Feb off of the table...worst case is probably like December, given the EPO should still crap out. This is what the weeklies were showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You seem to have a better mastery of the strat stuff than I do...theoretically, given the 20 day lag, etc...that could protract blocking through all of Feb, no? That would take an exotically warm Feb off of the table. Ha, you are probably too kind with that, just posting the EPS. If the model is correct and there isn't some sort of MUO destructive interference, maybe it does make more of a fun Feb? Perhaps that is what the weeklies were trying to say. It's something I'll keep an eye on going forward. I'm not really sure what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: This is what the weeklies were showing I would bet the remaining uncompromised 3 hair follicles on the top of Kev's head that a repeat of that Dec pattern would fare better in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would bet the remaining uncompromised 3 hair follicles on the top of Kev's head that a repeat of that Dec pattern would fare better in February. Maybe we will all get lucky in March when the wavelengths change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, you are probably too kind with that, just posting the EPS. If the model is correct and there isn't some sort of MUO destructive interference, maybe it does make more of a fun Feb? Perhaps that is what the weeklies were trying to say. It's something I'll keep an eye on going forward. I'm not really sure what to think. One thing I have noticed about SSW is that they tend to stagnate the MJO in whatever phases it was in at the onset....this is what ruined 2018-2019, and made that season look like a la nina during what should have been a prime time of a prolific, weak, modoki el nino season. That has also happened this season with the first SSW, however, I think the MJO is finally staggering into more favorable phases should this SSW succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would bet the remaining uncompromised 3 hair follicles on the top of Kev's head that a repeat of that Dec pattern would fare better in February. If true we go deep into March with favorable chances 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would bet the remaining uncompromised 3 hair follicles on the top of Kev's head that a repeat of that Dec pattern would fare better in February. When was the last time you saw my “head”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If true we go deep into March with favorable chances March has always been a wild card in my mind....my composite had tremendous March blocking, but I wussed out in the narrative partly because of both the magnitude of la nina/QBO, and the recent propensity for blocking to wait until spring to (re)emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When was the last time you saw my “head”? Been a few years, but to my knowledge, male pattern baldness usually doesn't reverse course without some aggressive intervention. I guess we can surmise what took place if we see head a full of curly cues on your grape once we all gtg after the pandemic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just shave it off. It’s just hair. Women can tell when you are trying to save the little you have left, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Everyone knows my stance on these meteorological unicorns, but all three major ensemble clusters look as though they are trying to signal some type of norlun/inverted trough like feature over eastern MA extending from that 1/26 graze job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Just shave it off. It’s just hair. Women can tell when you are trying to save the little you have left, BTW. Just a receding hairline. It’s been buzzed since high school . Party on top , runways on sides 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Its like the folks from Gulfport, MS being interviewed post Katrina...."eh, just a little beach erosion". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Everyone knows my stance on these meteorological unicorns, but all three major ensemble clusters look as though they are trying to signal some type of norlun/inverted trough like feature over eastern MA extending from that 1/26 graze job. This demands a Jimmy post. We here at AMWX.com believe Jimmy is the Norlun expert and look forward to his analysis of the upcoming grave situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Remember when models showed a snowstorm for today just 1 week ago? Remember right after Christmas people were excited for the next few weeks because there was "weather to track", even if snow was not in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 All guidance is pretty suppressed with everything, right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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