January 2021

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re in it this week. I mean, this isn’t a model phantom like last January. It’s going to occur.

Here is the D3, D5, D8 and D11 N Hemisphere map H5 anomalies. You can see smaller scale problems on the closer maps inside of a week...smaller scale is obviously unpredictable at longer time ranges...but the -EPO/-NAO pattern is happening  

 

 

 

It’s not a good pattern though unless it snows. Maybe on paper the hemisphere looks good, but it’s not favorable unless it delivers . 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Doubt that will ever happen, I'm married....lol, I'm heading north this weekend but i hear its a shi tshow because your putting a lot of people in a small area because of lack of snow statewide so everyone and his brother are flocking NW.

Head for the county...never seems crowded up there..cuz nobody wants to drive that far lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not a good pattern though unless it snows. Maybe on paper the hemisphere looks good, but it’s not favorable unless it delivers . 

There’s the longwave pattern and there’s the shortwaves embedded in it. 

We know what favorable longwave patterns look like. We have a good history of them. Longwave patterns are more predictable in advance. We have no idea what shortwaves will do until  we get closer. There are examples of favorable longwave patterns that didn’t deliver (See January 1985). There are also examples of unfavorable longwave patterns that did. (See January 2006 for interior SNE) 

When meta discuss the “pattern”, they are almost always talking about the hemispheric long wave pattern. Usually we will specify when we’re talking scales smaller than that. 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re in it this week. I mean, this isn’t a model phantom like last January. It’s going to occur.

Here is the D3, D5, D8 and D11 N Hemisphere map H5 anomalies. You can see smaller scale problems on the closer maps inside of a week...smaller scale is obviously unpredictable at longer time ranges...but the -EPO/-NAO pattern is happening  

 

 

 

Good illustration of how these little s/w features just mucking things up. That cutoff near CA is effing us in the near term. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not a good pattern though unless it snows. Maybe on paper the hemisphere looks good, but it’s not favorable unless it delivers . 

But all we have is paper when you’re over 10 days out. We don’t have the skill to break down those that produce and those that don’t. 

[CoastalWx]

Just be happy we had some big events even in lackluster winters. Imagine being a kid when you had 3-4 subpar winters in a row where your largest storm was 6-8”. 

[Fozz]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re in it this week. I mean, this isn’t a model phantom like last January. It’s going to occur.

Here is the D3, D5, D8 and D11 N Hemisphere map H5 anomalies. You can see smaller scale problems on the closer maps inside of a week...smaller scale is obviously unpredictable at longer time ranges...but the -EPO/-NAO pattern is happening  

But going into February, it seems like the EPO craps out badly based on nearly all the latest ensembles means. Meanwhile the NAO seems surprisingly persistent, but I don't know how much that helps with the MJO at the very worst phase.

[78Blizzard]

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January .

Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin  models can't even get a storm snowstorm right a week out.

But they can get a rainer right 8-10 days out.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

But they can get a rainer right 8-10 days out.

Grinch was locked in for 2 weeks straight. Barely wavered. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But all we have is paper when you’re over 10 days out. We don’t have the skill to break down those that produce and those that don’t. 

You would think models or at least ensembles would at least get one correct. If they can model the hemisphere correctly they should be able to forecast a snow event.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

And...... we have a couple soakers showing up on guidance. La la la lock it up!

[dendrite]

Yeah we’re finally hitting some longwave line drives, but they’re right at someone. The other extreme is a bloop hit in a lousy pattern. Yeah, we’d rather get a hit than an out, but going forward you’d rather take your chances with Ortiz liners over Cesar Crespo weak flares.

[Clavinet]

3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

And...... we have a couple soakers showing up on guidance. La la la lock it up!

I love your profile picture! That one was easy to recognize.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You would think models or at least ensembles would at least get one correct. If they can model the hemisphere correctly they should be able to forecast a snow event.

The whole pattern is modeled correctly. But within large scale patterns are details you can just really narrow down. Especially with models that have 30-50 members in them. They will smooth out those details. I will say the gfs op runs have shown the details fairly accurately, but I would Never weigh op runs much past a week out. 

[MJO812]

Gfs coming in further south for the 26th

[Modfan2]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s the longwave pattern and there’s the shortwaves embedded in it. 

We know what favorable longwave patterns look like. We have a good history of them. Longwave patterns are more predictable in advance. We have no idea what shortwaves will do until  we get closer. There are examples of favorable longwave patterns that didn’t deliver (See January 1985). There are also examples of unfavorable longwave patterns that did. (See January 2006 for interior SNE) 

When meta discuss the “pattern”, they are almost always talking about the hemispheric long wave pattern. Usually we will specify when we’re talking scales smaller than that. 

I try to rationalize weather conditions down here in S FL to see if there are any correlation to weather in New England. In 7 years this is by far the coldest winter I have had so not sure how a cold SE impacts weather for New England?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January .

Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin  models can't even get a storm right a week out.

Any Meteorologist that called for an epic January based upon an SSW that didn't materialize until the first week of January ... does/did not understand thetotal model of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming gestation -

TIME LAG!   20 days ( as illustrated in the annotation farther below )

For the general user/reader of this weather-related hobby/social media: You could do yourself a favor if you understanding that lag. If you had back in December, might have known better and been protected from the beguiling turns excitement-intending phrases by Twits 

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

Will and I mused about this a month ago ...and yup, that's been the best prediction leveled this winter thus far.  We literally discussed in no uncertain terms how the -AO (erstwhile) would be mistaken and falsely connected to the advent of the SSW.  

Here we are ...... NAILED it... lol,.  Heh, wasn't exactly a tricky foresight, no. 

Having displayed this and explain that ...

Yeah, it's even possible that a -AO won't pay cold and snowy dividends, either.   This one didn't - why should any future -AO be required to. 

So, part of the problem with the Twit toxicology of the Sociological dilemma is that no way does a Twit stupified dumb down idiocracy have enough space to elucidate a complex field of study and environmental problem solving required to understand the SSW...

So, no Met should even push any vision of what one should mean to weather patterns and storm this or cold that - ... Maybe advertise one as imminent ? sure - but then direct the reader to a real study.  Irresponsible informatica is going to doom Humanity. 

 

 

 

 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

13 minutes ago, Clavinet said:

I love your profile picture! That one was easy to recognize.

Best storm of my weenie life.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Any Meteorologist that called for an epic January based upon an SSW that didn't materialize until the first week of January ... does/did not understand thetotal model of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming gestation -

TIME LAG!   20 days ( as illustrated in the annotation farther below )

For the general user/reader of this weather-related hobby/social media: You could do yourself a favor if you understanding that lag. If you had back in December, might have known better and been protected from the beguiling turns excitement-intending phrases by Twits 

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet

Will and I mused about this a month ago ...and yup, that's been the best prediction leveled this winter thus far.  We literally discussed in no uncertain terms how the -AO (erstwhile) would be mistaken and falsely connected to the advent of the SSW.  

Here we are ...... NAILED it... lol,.  Heh, wasn't exactly a tricky foresight, no. 

 

This is actually what keeps me somewhat skeptical of the resignation by many that February will be bad for snow lovers. Sure, I admit it might, but this SSW hasn’t manifested yet in the troposphere and it still could throw a wrench into February. Some of the longer term guidance shows the AO/NAO region starting to act a bit stubborn as we head deeper into February so maybe we we get something like a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA/-NAO/-AO pattern....those can be good (See February 1969) or they could still suck but I think we still have to wait and see what happens with that SSW impact. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is actually what keeps me somewhat skeptical of the resignation by many that February will be bad for snow lovers. Sure, I admit it might, but this SSW hasn’t manifested yet in the troposphere and it still could throw a wrench into February. Some of the longer term guidance shows the AO/NAO region starting to act a bit stubborn as we head deeper into February so maybe we we get something like a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA/-NAO/-AO pattern....those can be good (See February 1969) or they could still suck but I think we still have to wait and see what happens with that SSW impact. 

This should be a required banner at the top of all log -ins for the next two weeks, just like the "no politics" reminder -

 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I try to rationalize weather conditions down here in S FL to see if there are any correlation to weather in New England. In 7 years this is by far the coldest winter I have had so not sure how a cold SE impacts weather for New England?

Usually cold FL happens in El Niño though there are exceptions like 2010-2011. We talked about how much this past 6 weeks has looked like El Niño and not La Niña so the cold FL makes sense in that regard. 

 

[Henry's Weather]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Usually cold FL happens in El Niño though there are exceptions like 2010-2011. We talked about how much this past 6 weeks has looked like El Niño and not La Niña so the cold FL makes sense in that regard. 

 

I thought it was a nina thing to get strewn-out shortwaves, no?

[Ginx snewx]

36 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

And...... we have a couple soakers showing up on guidance. La la la lock it up!

 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 

Another run, another result... 

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Taken with a grain of salt obviously at this range, but would that low being so far southeast, really throw a swath of snow like that back this way into SNE? 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

How about just stop looking at Twitter?

Thats possible? 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Thats possible? 

I do. 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

NYC is  at 10.5 inches

I just want to at least reach 20 inches .

Mother nature doesn't care

[TalcottWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I do. 

I'm poking fun at myself and my nine billion hours spent on twitter

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This should be a required banner at the top of all log -ins for the next two weeks, just like the "no politics" reminder -

 

That’s why I haven’t been down on the first half of Feb. It looks like we may have festering -NAO for a time. Also, another 50mb warm nose punch develops near the dateline and side swings on the vortex from the dateline.