BrianW Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s all on the other side of the pole. And with no snow cover, it won’t be getting cold unless things change. More and more things are starting to awake in terms of plant life. We’ve had zero bitter cold this winter when even our warmest winters at least have a brief shot or two. It’s been a sneaky torch. At this point, it’s good to start getting outdoor stuff done. Already cleaned up my backyard again. Onto the front soon. It's over. Nature has always been a solid indicator of what's coming.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, BrianW said: It's over. Nature has always been a solid indicator of what's coming.... Not necessarily lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I miss the cold and snowy winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: How did Jan69 end in your memory bank? One of the least snowiest Januarys on record....pattern wasn’t even that bad either kind of like this year. It wasn’t as torchy but slightly above average temps. Of course we all know that things turned around in Feb ‘69. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I don't see Feb69 walking in the door, And this is going to go down as one of if not the most anemic Jan for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 January 26th looks pretty good to me on the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't see Feb69 walking in the door, And this is going to go down as one of if not the most anemic Jan for snow. In ‘69 they didn’t see it coming either lol. Nobody sees that coming. It just lines up and happens ever once in a great while. Of course I’m not predicting that to happen this year...but I think you know what I mean. But Ya, it sucks currently..big time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Not necessarily lol... It's full on spring down here on the shoreline. Tulips are coming up... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Turned over my garden yesterday, hardly any frost in the soil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January . Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin models can't even get a storm right a week out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 ORH Jan snows and Feb snows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January . Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin models can't even get a storm right a week out. I don't know how long you've been around here, but you should know to not pay Twitter Mets any attention anyway. Also watching the SSW for a pattern change is usually useless as tits on a bull as far as I've seen since its been a thing talked about on this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. I’d ask this question first....how many times have you had 3 subpar seasons in a row? I’ll bet the answer is very few. For ORH I can only think of 4 times going back to 1950. (Btw I defined “subpar” as anything below the 40th percentile...so if ORH had 64” in a season, that is considered “normal” in my classification...even though technically it is slightly below the long term mean of 69”) 1. ‘97-98 through ‘99-‘00 2 ‘88-89 through ‘91-‘92 (this is 4 consecutive...the only time) 4. ‘78-‘79 through ‘80-‘81 3. ‘52-‘53 through ‘54-‘55 So our sample size here is actually 4. If you took it at face value, that means we’d have a 1 in 4 chance of getting 4 in a row. However, we know small sample sizes aren’t representative of the longer term probability, and the chances of getting 4 in a row are actually close to 50/50 unless there is some meteorological reason to believe that the 4th season is biased toward above normal snowfall after 3 subpar seasons. I certainly cannot come to that conclusion statistically with a mere sample size of 4 trials. We first need to reach 3 seasons in a row. That’s far from a done deal considering many spots are actually above normal still. Yes, and while keeping in mind that in a hockey-sticking CC world ( for those who embrace reality ) it is logical to consider the coin as steadily more weighted on one side. I realize your just conveying a statistical concept there ... but, applying this to the real world now requires a deeper look. Reiterating a talking point from autumn ... our 'flop directions' seem to less and less be favoring frozen verification types. Best to describe 'flop direction' via a description. Suppose one is looking at a middle -range modeled cyclone with +1 C swathed amid the NW quadrant of it's QPF layout: In 1995, that's a blue snow; in 2021, that's cat paws. And analyzing the two events may not demonstratively reveal very many differences - its part of the insidiously slow nature in which CC expresses. I do critique that idea, however ... advances in modeling over the last 25 years could certainly atone for that. Yet, climate migration is real - that paragon is sensitive to decimal-worth of change, because of the quantum nature of molecular phase-change physics. Because we are in fact in a polar migration wrt the climate banding around the hemisphere, that brings these disparate explanations into competition. It's subtle... It's insidious, but CC could very well be claiming these events. We are also event wealthy in recent decades. So, we are getting more snow in the aggregate purely by virtue of having more opportunities. That obfuscates and buries truths ... So the governing point of this example is that ...maybe just maybe stringing 3 or 4 years of "bad" winters while, say, every half decade we get a Feb 2015 ... is more common now. ... All of which is also buried in 'virtual climate' provided by the cinema age of weather modeling and the Internet engagement aspect - there's that too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I dunno, the fabled 26th potential and short window beyond, before February hostility could settle in, isn’t all that inspiring ATM from about the MA/VT border on south. Looks good for ski country and NNE sword fights, but not so much for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January . Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin models can't even get a storm right a week out. How about just stop looking at Twitter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't see Feb69 walking in the door, And this is going to go down as one of if not the most anemic Jan for snow. As soon as Jan 69 was mentioned, I thought of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How about just stop looking at Twitter? There were some awful calls on other forums by some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: There were some awful calls on other forums by some people. Been some awful calls here too by a bunch of weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Fat lady is warming up, that is undeniable.... regardless of faux 10 day “threats” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Been some awful calls here too by a bunch of weenies. NYC is at 10.5 inches I just want to at least reach 20 inches . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yes, and while keeping in mind that in a hockey-sticking CC world ( for those who embrace reality ) it is logical to consider the coin as steadily more weighted on one side. I realize your just conveying a statistical concept there ... but, applying this to the real world now requires another a deeper look. Reiterating a talking point from autumn ... our 'flop directions' seem to less and less favoring frozen verification types. Best to describe 'flop direction' via a description. Suppose one is looking at a middle -range modeled cyclone with +1 C swathed amid the NW quadrant of it's QPF layout: In 1995, that's a blue snow; in 2021, that's cat paws. And analyzing the two events may not demonstratively any differences - its part of the insidiously slow nature in which CC expresses. I do critique that idea, however ... advances in modeling over the last 25 years could certainly atone for that. Yet, climate migration is real - that paragon is sensitive to decimal because of the phase-change physics. Because we are at in a polar migration in the climate banding around the hemisphere, that brings these explanations into competition. It's subtle... It's insidious, but CC could very well be claiming these events. We are also event wealthy in recent decades. So, we are getting more snow in the aggregate purely by virtue of having more opportunities. Agreed that we’re not static, however I’d push back on assuming that CC means less snow here, at least in terms of where we are now on the timeline. The empirical evidence thus far actually points to the opposite conclusion. Eventually the warming would reach a point where it becomes more dominant than the “higher precipitation” signal which is driving the increased snowfall in the past couple decades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: NYC is at 10.5 inches I just want to at least reach 20 inches . Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Twitter meteorologists need to stop hyping the stupid SSW. Alot of calls were for an epic January . Long range forecasts are also stupid . The friggin models can't even get a storm right a week out. Stop listening to twitter weenie mets like JB, Henry Margusity, etc., and unfollow Eric Webb. He’s an arrogant, know it all little shit. Epic bust after epic bust from him since November. Dude sucks and he’s pompous as hell, hasn’t gotten a damn thing right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Been some awful calls here too by a bunch of weenies. I would be happy if I was you looking long term. As far as the rest of the SNE forum goes, everyone here is a 2 hour drive from deep snow. You need an immediate fix take a ride. I just last night was able to read the Dec snow thread. Obvious some people here will never be happy. Hopefully some day you will be able to relocate to a region high in elevation that has snow OTG November to May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Stop listening to twitter weenie mets like JB, Henry Margusity, etc., and unfollow Eric Webb. He’s an arrogant, know it all little shit. Epic bust after epic bust from him since November. Dude sucks and he’s pompous as hell, hasn’t gotten a damn thing right He does hype alot. Even DT was calling for a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Starting to wonder if this is the third year in a row where the best "winter" pattern for the reach doesn't emerge until March/April. I'm remembering correctly that March/April last two years were best pattern of respective season right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Starting to wonder if this is the third year in a row where the best "winter" pattern for the reach doesn't emerge until March/April. I'm remembering correctly that March/April last two years were best pattern of respective season right? We’re in it this week. I mean, this isn’t a model phantom like last January. It’s going to occur. Here is the D3, D5, D8 and D11 N Hemisphere map H5 anomalies. You can see smaller scale problems on the closer maps inside of a week...smaller scale is obviously unpredictable at longer time ranges...but the -EPO/-NAO pattern is happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I would be happy if I was you looking long term. As far as the rest of the SNE forum goes, everyone here is a 2 hour drive from deep snow. You need aN immediate fix take a ride. I just last night was able to read the Dec snow thread. Obvious some people here will never be happy. Hopefully some day you will be able to relocate to a region high in elevation that has snow OTG November to May Doubt that will ever happen, I'm married....lol, I'm heading north this weekend but i hear its a shi tshow because your putting a lot of people in a small area because of lack of snow statewide so everyone and his brother are flocking NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He does hype alot. Even DT was calling for a good pattern. Nobody can say...they’ve all been wrong. Just wait and see. It’s really that simple. Why would anybody believe any long term modeling this year...cuz as you’ve stated they can’t get anything right outside 5-7 days. At some point you’d have to think something has to break favorable...being were only two days past mid January, right? Or it’ll be worse than ‘12 and go down in infamy. That’d be extreme, just not in the way we’d all like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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