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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm wondering if the EPS carries it or at least some -

The GEFs actually have several members with blizzards.  Sort of imagine "PD1" but a further N. track compared to that one - Will would be the better one to reference but I'm pretty sure that first variation of the straight E Miller B boning on northern extent scenario had milk cirrus and flurries to the Pike with CCB blizzard conditions in PHL-DCA...  Digress -

Another aspect that's interesting is that 2/3rds of those members have a storm and of those, they're all snow really... Usually at this range, they are all rain - not sure if that means anything but.

Anyway, point is ... I wonder if the operational Euro is a rare weaker outlier

You're sounding like a weenie...just pooh pooh any model that doesn't produce snow.   j/k  :lol:

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3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

You're sounding like a weenie...just pooh pooh any model that doesn't produce snow.   j/k  :lol:

What - your post does not logically follow - I'm not 'pooh pooh' ing anything - the model could certainly be a weak outlier.

I'm asking - and it matters quite analytically -

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1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Come on, man, lighten up.  Didn't you see the "j/k"?

No, I did not - ha ...

Truth be told ...I spend a goodly amount of recent energy explaining to folks that there's no use in prediction beyond 5 days in this overall circumstance, so at risk of being a hypocrite.  Trying to make a little chicken salad out of a chicken shit pattern is tough. 

 

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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm wondering if the EPS carries it or at least some -

The GEFs actually have several members with blizzards.  Sort of imagine "PD1" but a further N. track compared to that one - Will would be the better one to reference but I'm pretty sure that first variation of the straight E Miller B boning on northern extent scenario had milk cirrus and flurries to the Pike with CCB blizzard conditions in PHL-DCA...  Digress -

Another aspect that's interesting is that 2/3rds of those members have a storm and of those, they're all snow really... Usually at this range, they are all rain - not sure if that means anything but.

Anyway, point is ... I wonder if the operational Euro is a rare weaker outlier

I think what you're describing is something like Feb 2, 2015?

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Curious did any MET predicted a poor snowfall season with great blocking? If so kudos. 

I predicted blocking (often east-based) from Dec into a portion of January,  and slightly below avg snowfall....blocking will likely persist a bit longer than I had thought, though.

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Curious did any MET predicted a poor snowfall season with great blocking? If so kudos. 

Just a cautionary note...I would not be issuing kudos to anyone, right now, just as I was puzzled why some where high-fiving the Jan 2011 vibe back near New Year....the tenor of the season changes so fast. There remains a path to a season altering event as we near peak climo.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just a cautionary note...I would not be issuing kudos to anyone, right now, just as I was puzzled why some where high-fiving the Jan 2011 vibe back near New Year....the tenor of the season changes so fast. There remains a path to a season altering event as we near peak climo.

True dat.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I don’t think we/anybody can tell where the next few weeks may go..good or bad. It seems very uncertain currently. 

The NAO block could completely break down, and we could still get a decent event(s) in Feb...hell, I remember we stole a mod event in Feb 2018, while I was in Uganda. Look at Feb 2006...

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I missed feb 06 in Philly, was at Pitt at the time for school. Still pissed I missed this...

 

9D6B4CA7-F3C2-4AA5-B432-91D49C35E314.gif

Broke the NYC all-time record for single snowstorm thanks to that fat 300 mile long band.

I remember the Jeff Beradelli write-up after the storm basically explaining and emphasizing that band is what justified the Central Park measurement when many were questioning it.

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