January 2021

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder what causes it to bury into the SW like that? Maybe the EPO ridge...

Could that be more euro bias? 

But it's a pretty solid looking rex block and that high to the north there is looking pretty strong so there really isn't much wiggle room for the low to move. I think too if the s/w was actually going to continue to strengthen it may have a better shot at ejecting, but looks like it reaches maturity very quickly and then rapidly weakens.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think he's assuming no phase....like the 00z run...it's close enough to be an annoying piece of shit and pumping the SE ridge to put the northern stream into the meat grinder.....while the 12z run being further west with it gives a more relaxed gradient in the east for the northern stream to dig in.

Yeah that might be our best chance. Keep that offshore so the nrn stream can dig as you said.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Could that be more euro bias? 

But it's a pretty solid looking rex block and that high to the north there is looking pretty strong so there really isn't much wiggle room for the low to move. I think too if the s/w was actually going to continue to strengthen it may have a better shot at ejecting, but looks like it reaches maturity very quickly and then rapidly weakens.

Nah...I think that's real. Everything else is trending same.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that might be our best chance. Keep that offshore so the nrn stream can dig as you said.

Legit arctic antecedent airmass ahead of it too....there's plenty of baroclinicity to work with. There's good potential on that one if it can dig.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wow, that clipper does really detonate...dig that N stream a bit more...

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah...I think that's real. Everything else is trending same.

The model-to-model consistency regarding the evolution of the energy is pretty strong so that certainly yields confidence that it is real. It's just some drastic differences regarding placement which as has just been mentioned will have a big impact for the clipper

[Ginx snewx]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where did you get this notion that I'm not invested in the season? I never implied that. You got butt hurt bc I said I'm not invested in NNE snow this wknd.

You've been confused a bit of late...

When did I mention your name? Talk about confused

[DavisStraight]

Should be a good snow game in Buffalo this weekend.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Heh....s stream does end up sending something that almost phases w N stream 1/22.

I find it hard to believe we won't end up with something decent this week.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, that clipper does really detonate...dig that N stream a bit more...

Lets just do a repeat of Jan '05....we get the 2-4" clipper appetizer 2 days before the next clipper detonates into a nuke that forever lives in James Nichols' lore.

[Baroclinic Zone]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup all this posting about sunny and mild lol. It’s a frozen wasteland out there 

46F currently.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Should be a good snow game in Buffalo this weekend.

Tug hill going to get smoked

[Typhoon Tip]

It's funny the '80's vibe came up back there... 

Firstly, that image posted looks more 1977 to me... but I get it with the mullet hair-do.  But then again, the cultural variance between 1972 and 1988 ( say...) is less than 2002 and 2018, just do to the fact that society's et al evolve much faster in recent modernity, because of high tech modulation is a powerful force/feedback.  Interesting... 

Anyway, I was just thinking about that 'big' event in January 1986. It was dubbed, 'The SYZYGY' storm ... done so for landing near or on the calendar date of the planetary alignment that goes by that name. I recall there was bus-stop speculation, even heard it on TWC by someone in passing, about the tides in that thing possibly being exaggerated because of Jupiter ...  hahaha - soooo 1980s. Right. 

But two nights before that storm, I was planning to trip to Rockport, Mass... I had a handful of snow storm desire in one hand, versus tide carnage in the other - hmm... Which do I choose? My family ( I was but a boy then...) had moved from Rockport to Acton, MA ... two years prior, a time in which I barely held up against the gale force exaggeration by these inland yokes .. exultations over the so-called, 'snow belt' of Middlesex and Worcester MA  ... Meanwhile, I was looking left and right down the street for two years running; we had received pretty much no winter 1983 - 1985.  I think that was the deciding factor; I had even given up. I decided to go back to Rockport for that storm for some hyper geek-out tide and wave drama, Seemed the better gamble.   It was everything billed, but not quite the same as February 1978 as Frank Johnson, childhood chum who ended up with an amazing life as an camera Met for a NC station ...amazing family ...seems idelic ..  At least one of us found heaven.   Me? still waiting for SYZYGY I suppose -    

I walked outdoors that same night ... 38 F on the typical suburban kitchen window side thermometer that always read 111 F on sunny May days around 11:35 AMs.  The air did not actually smelled like snow, rather rain. Just like the aroma on a humid day in June surrounding a thunderstorm's B.O.  

The air today ...January 15 2021 feels that way.  It doesn't smell of it... but you know how that does that?  Temperature and smell, they take you to setting in the past - like that favorite song. I came back home and wonder if anyone had happened upon any salacious 12z material to offset the noir emptiness of the forlorning winter .. but instead that was some dork in a mullet - I'm like, that is weird.  

Rockport was amazing that storm.  30 hours and four or so tide cycle's-worth.  Boulders upwards of 100 lb herald onto shore roads.  The cacophony of olive green walls curled and it was as though you could feel the Earth move seismically if not by the sound of their power alone.  Their white wash tsunamis' easily overtook the higher beach... where in the summer towels, blankets and lawn chairs festooned laisse-faire folk clad in that which bares. This? This stuff would steal their souls for the cold alone.  And as the leading edge of the tumulted torrents smashed into the granite slabs beneath the roads, towering explosions like mini thunder clouds rose above and just like anvils ripping asunder, their canopies laid down wind ..sometimes enveloping over nearby neighborhood rooftops.   One physical aspect that was interesting ... the rain was white - this was before the vernacular had denoted that sort of phenomenon as cat paws, but I'm sure those were.  But every once in a while ...one giant, single, solitary gulf ball sided aggregate would go by nearly parallel to the ground.  You had to look for them, they were so fare ...' but there's one - just there'   While that was happening, back home in Acton piled on 18"

That event, to me .. was the crowning achievement of the 1980s.  For I don't - for some reason - recall 1984 April. Otherwise, in 2nd place was that positive bust in late January or early February of 1987. That one was similar to December 1997, in that it was forecast 1-3 of glop ending as light rain.  We ended up with 10" crusted over with sleet and ZDZ ... have received 7 inches of it with lightning and thunder.   The whole decade of the 1980s to me had that one, singular crowning achievement.  

Since 2010.. I think I can count eight storms that exceeded 16", and countless over a foot.

[dryslot]

I think its going to be one or the other 20th or 22nd.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

Music!

Deff love me some 80s freestyle.

Euro making steps towards a great stretch...Hang in there weenies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/13/2021 at 1:31 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Ray with a hundred posts in 2 days, for someone not invested....

 

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

When did I mention your name? Talk about confused

Meds getting to you?

[Typhoon Tip]

Nah... this Euro run typifies support for the talking point - there's very little/nill predictive skill right now. 

That flow might very well be the fastest I've seen in the last 10 years...right through those five days right there.   Incredible 100+ kt base-line trajectory speeds over the top of a flat ridges... 120 in trough nadirs... ( as a separate matter, it's negative interference between that base-line state and S/W embedded in the flow, as there's nothing remaining/differentiating the S/W from that canvas = ...new hobby )

Beyond the capacity of the technology really - features in space and time, as depicted, not worth commenting on.  

There's equal probability the next cycle focuses on the 24th and brings the 20th back...  as there is, nothing happens of any of those ... They are like one those pop-up games at an arcade center, where you have to hammer the one that pops up and get a prize if you nail one of them. 

[Cold Miser]

53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Grab 1-3” Sat night and another couple early week and it’ll look wintry 

Grab this...

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's funny the '80's vibe came up back there... 

Firstly, that image posted looks more 1977 to me... but I get it with the mullet hair-do.  But then again, the cultural variance between 1972 and 1988 ( say...) is less than 2002 and 2018, just do to the fact that society's et al evolve much faster in recent modernity, because of high tech modulation is a powerful force/feedback.  Interesting... 

Anyway, I was just thinking about that 'big' event in January 1986. It was dubbed, 'The SYZYGY' storm ... done so for landing near or on the calendar date of the planetary alignment that goes by that name. I recall there was bus-stop speculation, even heard it on TWC by someone in passing, about the tides in that thing possibly being exaggerated because of Jupiter ...  hahaha - soooo 1980s. Right. 

But two nights before that storm, I was planning to trip to Rockport, Mass... I had a handful of snow storm desire in one hand, versus tide carnage in the other - hmm... Which do I choose? My family ( I was but a boy then...) had moved from Rockport to Acton, MA ... two years prior, a time in which I barely held up against the gale force exaggeration by these inland yokes .. exultations over the so-called, 'snow belt' of Middlesex and Worcester MA  ... Meanwhile, I was looking left and right down the street for two years running; we had received pretty much no winter 1983 - 1985.  I think that was the deciding factor; I had even given up. I decided to go back to Rockport for that storm for some hyper geek-out tide and wave drama, Seemed the better gamble.   It was everything billed, but not quite the same as February 1978 as Frank Johnson, childhood chum who ended up with an amazing life as an camera Met for a NC station ...amazing family ...seems idelic ..  At least one of us found heaven.   Me? still waiting for SYZYGY I suppose -    

I walked outdoors that same night ... 38 F on the typical suburban kitchen window side thermometer that always read 111 F on sunny May days around 11:35 AMs.  The air did not actually smelled like snow, rather rain. Just like the aroma on a humid day in June surrounding a thunderstorm's B.O.  

The air today ...January 15 2021 feels that way.  It doesn't smell of it... but you know how that does that?  Temperature and smell, they take you to setting in the past - like that favorite song. I came back home and wonder if anyone had happened upon any salacious 12z material to offset the noir emptiness of the forlorning winter .. but instead that was some dork in a mullet - I'm like, that is weird.  

Rockport was amazing that storm.  30 hours and four or so tide cycle's-worth.  Boulders upwards of 100 lb herald onto shore roads.  The cacophony of olive green walls curled and it was as though you could feel the Earth move seismically if not by the sound of their power alone.  Their white wash tsunamis' easily overtook the higher beach... where in the summer towels, blankets and lawn chairs festooned laisse-faire folk clad in that which bares. This? This stuff would steal their souls for the cold alone.  And as the leading edge of the tumulted torrents smashed into the granite slabs beneath the roads, towering explosions like mini thunder clouds rose above and just like anvils ripping asunder, their canopies laid down wind ..sometimes enveloping over nearby neighborhood rooftops.   One physical aspect that was interesting ... the rain was white - this was before the vernacular had denoted that sort of phenomenon as cat paws, but I'm sure those were.  But every once in a while ...one giant, single, solitary gulf ball sided aggregate would go by nearly parallel to the ground.  You had to look for them, they were so fare ...' but there's one - just there'   While that was happening, back home in Acton piled on 18"

That event, to me .. was the crowning achievement of the 1980s.  For I don't - for some reason - recall 1984 April. Otherwise, in 2nd place was that positive bust in late January or early February of 1987. That one was similar to December 1997, in that it was forecast 1-3 of glop ending as light rain.  We ended up with 10" crusted over with sleet and ZDZ ... have received 7 inches of it with lightning and thunder.   The whole decade of the 1980s to me had that one, singular crowning achievement.  

Since 2010.. I think I can count eight storms that exceeded 16", and countless over a foot.

Not to nitpick, but I think the storm you are referring to was 1987. It was 1/2/87. That storm matches your description of both being during SYZGZY and also a 1-2 foot paste bomb back in the 495 belt.

I do think you have also mentioned a "little critter" from earlier that winter on several occasions. November 19, 1986 had a fast moving clipper-esque system that redeveloped off NJ and blasted us with 6-10" when the forecast was for only an inch or two.

[RedSky]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah... this Euro run typifies support for the talking point - there's very little/nill predictive skill right now. 

That flow might very well be the fastest I've seen in the last 10 years...right through those five days right there.   Incredible 100+ kt base-line trajectory speeds over the top of a flat ridges... 120 in trough nadirs... ( as a separate matter, it's negative interference between that base-line state and S/W embedded in the flow, as there's nothing remaining/differentiating the S/W from that canvas = ...new hobby )

Beyond the capacity of the technology really - features in space and time, as depicted, not worth commenting on.  

There's equal probability the next cycle focuses on the 24th and brings the 20th back...  as there is, nothing happens of any of those ... They are like one those pop-up games at an arcade center, where you have to hammer the one that pops up and get a prize if you nail one of them. 

2020-2021 the Whack-a-mole winter I like it

 

[weatherwiz]

WTF is SZGYGYGYG

[ORH_wxman]

EPS showing the miller B potential on Jan 21-22....they are liking Jan 25-26 too.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

WTF is SZGYGYGYG

Read my mind...

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

WTF is SZGYGYGYG

SYZYGY is when you have celestial bodies lining up....most common is Sun/earth/moon but other planets can be included in that. It makes the tides pretty extreme.

[Cold Miser]

37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Tug hill going to get smoked

Our lake house is just on the fringe of tug hill weather.  May get close to a foot there over the next few days.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not to nitpick, but I think the storm you are referring to was 1987. It was 1/2/87. That storm matches your description of both being during SYZGZY and also a 1-2 foot paste bomb back in the 495 belt.

I do think you have also mentioned a "little critter" from earlier that winter on several occasions. November 19, 1986 had a fast moving clipper-esque system that redeveloped off NJ and blasted us with 6-10" when the forecast was for only an inch or two.

Of course you have that storm saved on your mental hard drive.

[Cold Miser]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course you have that storm saved your mental hard drive.

Will has EVERY storm saved in his mental hard drive.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

SYZYGY is when you have celestial bodies lining up....most common is Sun/earth/moon but other planets can be included in that. It makes the tides pretty extreme.

ohhhh I gotcha...I vaguely remember that from my astronomy class I took. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

Will has EVERY storm saved in his mental hard drive.

It’s insane. He’s like a weenie Rainman. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

Will has EVERY storm saved in his mental hard drive.

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