RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:32 PM, MJO812 said: We finally have blocking and nothing to show for it. Unbelieveable. Expand Nothing yet but stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:33 PM, 512high said: Pope say something! Help us! Expand Legit not posted in these threads since he called that December system a whiff for SNE, and it dropped 40" in NNE. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:33 PM, 512high said: Pope say something! Help us! Expand That’s the last person who will save you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:33 PM, CoastalWx said: Can tell a lot by the tabs. Looks like he's paying Belchertown a visit? Expand Either he’s secretly looking to forecast for CMA tomorrow or he’s looking for a family getaway before he ruins Valentine’s Day if the upcoming pattern shits the bed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 LC just made a post on FB that he expects that SW energy to eject....tend to agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 1:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: N Stream dominant pattern is like an assembly line of of Canadian snipers...you never know which one will strike and when. Usually we end up focusing on the wrong wave/time frame, and before you know it....WHAM. 00z EPS was definitely more intrigued by the clipper. Expand I'll take these all day everyday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:53 PM, dryslot said: I'll take these all day everyday. Expand Same here. Lot less risk with these at our latitude....I hate s streamers....its not a matter of whether or not there out limiting factors, but how many. Sky is the limit for us with N stream, though the likelihood is tempered some by the lack of a PNA. I may feel differently from about central CT on down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 If the 20th doesn't clip us, Maybe the 22nd will right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 3:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same here. Lot less risk with these at our latitude....I hate s streamers....its not a matter of whether or not there out limiting factors, but how many. Sky is the limit for us with N stream, though the likelihood is tempered some by the lack of a PNA. I may feel differently from about central CT on down the coast. Expand If a southern bowling ball comes along and phases with it, Then that works too, But relying on just the southern stream to save us, Well, We have seen how that goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:25 PM, Ginx snewx said: Ray and you in NNE threads, so sad you 2 are so broken Expand I would put a well placed 9mm bullet right thru the block of that rig. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: Heh...that's kind of what happened in the 1/26-27/15 blizzard. Thing was cooked and in Bermuda at 72h lead. Expand Yeah ...I recall that week pretty clearly ... that's what I call "wave masking" ? It's not a formal nothing so don't the average user now go beady eyed flipping through the AMS catalogue. But, I remember there was a SW trough injection through Texas ... not appreciably deep, but, the flow was temporarily split around the Dakotas ... circa the 20-23rd... That TX S/ stream wave "looked" like the headliner show for the week. It moved to roughly the longitude of the TV, whence the N /stream threatened to dump in/phase. But when the N /stream aligned neutral with the S/stream, the whole structure had already made WV's longitude ...so it was getting a bit late to get it done. Plus, the flow was overall still a bit progressive, too, which didn't lend to slowing things down and giving the phase time to evolve/maximize. Nevertheless, a wave does develop on the MA and deepens moderate relative to EC cyclone climo ...and rockets by for a moderate impact .. so not a total loss, done deal - right. Wrong. While all that was playing out... upstream over the E. Pac/west ... there was already a follow-up wave injected into the mid stream latitudes. Typically, when the models handling two waves in spacing contention - they'll start focusing on the lead wave ... (the sojourn is for the general reader - ) Those of us trial-and-true for years of hardened experience know this to be true... Though, perhaps with recent tech advancing ...parsing while maintaining coherent structure and amplitude identities is actually getting better. Who knows? Anyway, right behind the 24th result astride the East Coast, there was a +PNAP spike bulging in the ridge out west, and between ... comes said potent mid-stream wave. That sucker stole the show for the week really. It got a huge mangus structural boost ( super position kinematics...blah blah) as it was coming together ...sort of "blind" to the models... They seemed to just simply not recover the wave spacing, nor the nearby EC baroclinic gradients behind the moderate Nor'easter's departure. SO, in so far as that handling that week, the models were NOT very good at parsing out coherent structure and amplitude identities ... no. So...I've seen that before...? Really going all the way back to the 1990s modeling standards. I remember back in the day, when there were two waves in the stream... that lead wave sometimes does 'steal' the show,... but, there were times when the models did that, but it seemed to hide the system behind - 1996 December did this... Those back to back relative bombs were like this. The models had them interfering all week and the tussle kept them flat... but while the models were arguing in that fight, reality had other plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: LC just made a post on FB that he expects that SW energy to eject....tend to agree. Expand models do tend to hold back energy in the SW too long...although there seems to have been some improvement with this with updates over the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 2:32 PM, MJO812 said: We finally have blocking and nothing to show for it. Unbelieveable. Expand Oh so now you’re gonna melt on the Eve of a pattern change? C’mon You’re better than that. Blocking is not the holy grail some of you think it is, as you’ve seen over the last few weeks. Need a lot more than just pretty orange colors over/west of Greenland to get good snow. It can definitely help when other things are in play, but need those other things too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 3:17 PM, weatherwiz said: models do tend to hold back energy in the SW too long...although there seems to have been some improvement with this with updates over the past several years. Expand Not the GFS ..heh Euro ... GGEM ... UKMET in that order of relative egregiousness, sure ..but the GFS? It takes anything physically conceived in the fluid medium of space and time, and immediately moves it along a 1.1C ... violating the General Theory of Relativity by 10% the speed of light - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 3:27 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Not the GFS ..heh Euro ... GGEM ... UKMET in that order of relative egregiousness, sure ..but the GFS? It takes anything physically conceived in the fluid medium of space and time, and immediately moves it along a 1.1C ... violating the General Theory of Relativity by 10% the speed of light - Expand Yes...true...it really is the Euro and others that have a tendency to hold energy back in the SW too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 3:06 PM, dryslot said: I would put a well placed 9mm bullet right thru the block of that rig. Expand Better be AP. Anyway, we have Grinches to perform that task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 ICON just misses on the 22nd.. blows up too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I wonder if the Lakes not being frozen over could play into our favor for the 20th...especially if the energy does amplify a bit more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 February thread ready to be fired up? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 3:47 PM, weatherwiz said: I wonder if the Lakes not being frozen over could play into our favor for the 20th...especially if the energy does amplify a bit more. Expand LES stream on roids into Windsor Locks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 3:54 PM, Cold Miser said: February thread ready to be fired up? Expand Bit early IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 3:47 PM, weatherwiz said: I wonder if the Lakes not being frozen over could play into our favor for the 20th...especially if the energy does amplify a bit more. Expand Mm not likely very factorable - never zero, of course... but just not weighted heavily enough to be substantial in the integration of all forces guiding the outcomes .. Like, the last 2,000 years of isolated fossil fuel profligate consumption in combustion and the conversion of it's exhaust into atmospheric gaseous and aerosol fluxing - now THAT is a major player ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 3:47 PM, weatherwiz said: I wonder if the Lakes not being frozen over could play into our favor for the 20th...especially if the energy does amplify a bit more. Expand It’s been rare lately for a big lake freeze. We’re heading to Chicago today...should get there by tomorrow evening. Looks wintry there as well for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 What a mess. That ridge folding into MT from what was once a tall ridge and the ULL off of srn CA really screw the potential for the 20th on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 3:54 PM, Cold Miser said: February thread ready to be fired up? Expand Might as well skip Feb and go straight to March? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Euro has a bit better of a setup on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 4:00 PM, CoastalWx said: What a mess. That ridge folding into MT from what was once a tall ridge and the ULL off of srn CA really screw the potential for the 20th on the GFS. Expand The SW energy will pork the 20th just by existing, then the 23rd by not ejecting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 4:01 PM, CoastalWx said: Euro has a bit better of a setup on the 00z run. Expand I thought the 00z run sucked....oh, you mean the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 So much worry and consternation from posters today. Hate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 4:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought the 00z run sucked....oh, you mean the clipper? Expand Yeah the 1/20 clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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