40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: There has been something modeled and on ensembles in the 16-18th period for several days if not a week or so, Won't get sorted out for a while longer as the pattern over CONUS @H5 is different every model run. Yea, the mid month deal looks like a frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The pattern looks to continue to favor the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast for now...if the degree of colder air in place was much more they would probably see a near historic stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the mid month deal looks like a frontal passage. maybe the LES machine can crank for a few days behind it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty spectacular phasing over the maritimes on the long range GFS at like day 11 (lol)....too bad that PV node is so lethargic in joining the fray. Little less energy out west may expedite that. 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That event, as modeled there, has left a significant amount on the table, too.....by like....half. Look to N ME for widespread 30"+ from that. This is illustrated via the snowfall algorithm.....as is, that solution has more bark than bite for SNE, as the PV phase is too late: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The pattern looks to continue to favor the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast for now...if the degree of colder air in place was much more they would probably see a near historic stretch. I know that this is a running joke, but I really think this drought period ends in about 10 days.....doesn't have to mean a HECS and probably will not, but that potential is there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rains to Maine’s is better than dry and 36 Absolutely not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 39 minutes ago, dendrite said: Bring on rains to Maine because my well went dry. The shaft on the pump went, but there's like no water even with a new one. 2020 sucked, but at least it didn't hit my bank account. Really? It’s been pretty wet overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Absolutely not I would completely sign for a 960mb low over Buffalo....a nice wave break would end this, one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would completely sign for a 960mb low over Buffalo....a nice wave break would end this, one way or another. Well yes id love a pattern breaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know that this is a running joke, but I really think this drought period ends in about 10 days.....doesn't have to mean a HECS and probably will not, but that potential is there. The potential is certainly there. Like you said, it doesn't have to be a HECS or some major storm...but there should be some window for some type of event. I'm wondering if we see some sort of SWFE type event...or an inland runner and we get help from blocking or a high to the north. This might stand a better chance than hoping for a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 That 12z Euro would just add salt in the wound on the 16th as the low cuts west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: That 12z Euro would just add salt in the wound on the 16th as the low cuts west. Awful model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Awful model Link? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Awful model Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Awful model Eyeroll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would not be the least bit surprised if the end of this lull period is marked by a pretty hellacious storm. Some sort of break from ennui/quiescence, whether 'hellacious' or just in general, yup. Pretty substantial regime changes typically do spawn. You can see a 'velocity flashing' passes through the entire medium from west to east over the period going from D4-5 ... The western ridge, eastern trough scaffolding is well underway during ... just sort of spontaneously emerges, and at the other side... that is beyond the temporal boundary of the pattern switch - I'm wondering if the non-linearity of making that progression is 'masking' or hiding any 'corrective' event of that nature out there... and that event could be this signal for the 18th. It's been there in the GEFs for days ... The 00z GFS missed a mega subsume bomb because it bullied in a Pac wave at 180 to 192 hours...Otherwise, the ridge in the west would have have completed the R-wave mechanics and driven that SPV S to meet up with that S/Stream ... and well - boom. It's a volatile time between D6 and 11 or 12 ...so I don't buy it that we should "punt" through D10... It depends what people are punting I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 49 minutes ago, dryslot said: That 12z Euro would just add salt in the wound on the 16th as the low cuts west. I mentioned a few days ago that it was possible. Either way, that was the hand that flushes the meteorological feces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I mentioned a few days ago that it was possible. Either way, that was the hand that flushes the meteorological feces. Couple of potential S/Ws behind that. One for like 1/18 and another for 1/20. Of course, shortwaves can disappear and show up more than 3-4 days out so that caveat applies. People are sick of hearing it, but that’s a great look. We didn’t cash in on the “decent” pattern which stinks (unless we see a miracle inside of 5 days here), but now we reload into a great pattern after 1/16ish. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: That 12z Euro would just add salt in the wound on the 16th as the low cuts west. I'm expecting that to do that... chapter one in a new story. It seems the models and forecaster efforts are struggling to parse out what is what from the 12th to the 17th ...that is the regime change modulation in that range, and it may come in a couple of trough progression amid a flow that is vastly speeding up ... (that being near the front side). In the wake we establishing a more gradient saturation from midriff Canada to the Gulf o/ Mex ... What we see happening after the 15th is there is a subtle flow bifurcation/ .. not quite a full-on split in the conventional sense, ...but there is a vestigial tendency for the PNA to neutralize ..that wants to pull the at first Rockies ridge orientation closer to the WC proper of N/A ...that tends to calve the flow east of the Rockies... the 18th event the GEFs are fiddling with ( and some of those are bombs!) ...is actually interesting because that is Pac wave that ends up in that quasi S/ branch... and east of MV that may yet still be a subsume favorable environment because there's semblances of retrograde tendency still going on at 60 N... so the hemispheric counter-clockwise/ ..relative rotation is still there. This time it may work out better because what screwed the pooch over the last 10 days was that no one or the models really pegged a nebular pattern of lax gradient in a -NAO pulse. That's a weird form of that... Best to just not include this recent week in any trend factorization - imho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 37 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Eyeroll Its the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Unfortunately it looks dry as far as the eye can see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Couple of potential S/Ws behind that. One for like 1/18 and another for 1/20. Of course, shortwaves can disappear and show up more than 3-4 days out so that caveat applies. People are sick of hearing it, but that’s a great look. We didn’t cash in on the “decent” pattern which stinks (unless we see a miracle inside of 5 days here), but now we reload into a great pattern after 1/16ish. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 New England should watch the precip along the front. Eps shows this possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: That 12z Euro would just add salt in the wound on the 16th as the low cuts west. I buy that, then N stream fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Some sort of break from ennui/quiescence, whether 'hellacious' or just in general, yup. Pretty substantial regime changes typically do spawn. You can see a 'velocity flashing' passes through the entire medium from west to east over the period going from D4-5 ... The western ridge, eastern trough scaffolding is well underway during ... just sort of spontaneously emerges, and at the other side... that is beyond the temporal boundary of the pattern switch - I'm wondering if the non-linearity of making that progression is 'masking' or hiding any 'corrective' event of that nature out there... and that event could be this signal for the 18th. It's been there in the GEFs for days ... The 00z GFS missed a mega subsume bomb because it bullied in a Pac wave at 180 to 192 hours...Otherwise, the ridge in the west would have have completed the R-wave mechanics and driven that SPV S to meet up with that S/Stream ... and well - boom. It's a volatile time between D6 and 11 or 12 ...so I don't buy it that we should "punt" through D10... It depends what people are punting I suppose. I agree 100%. I was saying in my post that the western energy diving in prevented a pretty historic even for us about day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: New England should watch the precip along the front. Eps shows this possibility. Puff, puff, pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Couple of potential S/Ws behind that. One for like 1/18 and another for 1/20. Of course, shortwaves can disappear and show up more than 3-4 days out so that caveat applies. People are sick of hearing it, but that’s a great look. We didn’t cash in on the “decent” pattern which stinks (unless we see a miracle inside of 5 days here), but now we reload into a great pattern after 1/16ish. Absolutely. There is no understating how frustrating it has been, but as history has proven, the script can flip very quickly...this is an ideal look to pull that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 People know how much I love to address the elephant in the room with storms, and harp on the limitations of potential, but a prominent northern stream really provides limited opportunity for such an endeavor. That is how our ceiling is reached. I smell a blog in rather short order- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 A bit on the stability of the current pattern. Since 1/1 at KBOS: hi 42, low 24, range: 18 Previous lowest range: 23. Average 40, max 60, stdev 10. So this is the most anomalous year (since KBOS kept records) in either direction. Overall min/max -4/74. The kind of crazy thing is that … it is going to stay just as stable for the next week per most modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would completely sign for a 960mb low over Buffalo....a nice wave break would end this, one way or another. Truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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