January 2021

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yep.  44.6F.  What was you high today?

Not cold , but wintry esque. Highest this week was yesterday at 38 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not cold , but wintry esque. Highest this week was yesterday at 38 

Does not include todays

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Does not include todays

You can’t run as high as the airport. I bet you run 2-3 cooler for highs. Don’t you have a thermo?

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

This is almost noose worthy, Talk about depression.

November temperatures were 4 to 6 degrees above normal and this
warmth continued into early December. The rest of December featured
large swings in temperatures with significant early season snowfall
followed by a warm rain system towards the end of the month. This
rain system depleted the early season snowpack and caused
widespread river flooding across western Maine and New Hampshire
with rivers still running above normal. December ended with
temperatures running 2 to 6 degrees above normal with above normal
precipitation.

After a modest snow and mixed precipitation event to start
January there has been a notable pattern shift with the storm
track suppressed well to our south. This shift in the storm track
can be attributed to a strong upper level ridge and blocking to
our north thanks to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
This dry pattern is expected to continue through mid-January with
storminess suppressed to our south. Generally, in negative NAO
patterns temperatures are favored to run below normal, but medium
range guidance indicates that temperatures will run near to above
normal. There are signs that by mid-January the blocking
associated with the negative NAO will shift further northward,
which would allow the storm track to shift closer to northern New
England and more active weather going into the second half of the
month.

The Climate Prediction Center`s 6 to 10 day outlook calls for
above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. The 8 to
14 day outlook calls for temperatures to be above normal with
near normal precipitation.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

Snow depths across New Hampshire are mostly 10 inches or less with
bare ground near the seacoast. Only across the high elevations in
northern New Hampshire do snow depths exceed 1 foot. Snow depths
are below to much below normal across all areas of New Hampshire.

An inch or less of water equivalent is contained in the snow pack
across areas below 1000 feet. Above 1000 feet...snow water
equivalents increase marginally between 1 and 3 inches. Snow water
equivalents are below to much below normal across all areas of
New Hampshire.

...WESTERN MAINE...

Snow depths across western Maine are below 5 inches near the
coast with bare ground in extreme southern Maine. Across the
interior snow depths are mostly under 10 inches and the only
locations with depths that exceed a foot are locally confined to
elevations above 1000 feet. Snow depths are below normal across
all of western Maine.

Snow water equivalent is well below normal for the time of year
and ranges from little if any in southern York county to 1 to 2
inches near the Canadian border.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

Although New Hampshire and western Maine were experiencing
drought conditions through the Fall of 2020...above normal
precipitation in November and December have led to significant
improvement in drought conditions. Soil moisture anomaly maps from
January 6 indicate near normal soil moisture across Maine and
slightly below normal soil moisture across extreme western Maine
through much of New hampshire. The latest Palmer Drought Severity
Index from 2 January 2021 shows near normal conditions across New
Hampshire and western Maine. The Palmer Index looks at conditions
over the range of weeks to months.

Reservoirs in the Androscoggin River basin are 75.3 percent full
which is 15.8 percent above normal. Reservoirs in the Kennebec
River basin are 77.1 percent full which is 20.2 percent above
normal.

Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire is running just slightly above
normal for early January.

Groundwater levels courtesy of the USGS are mostly in the normal
range with the exception of below normal being in Northern New
Hampshire.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

River flows across New Hampshire are near to above normal and
above to well above normal across Maine. In fact...flows at the
head waters of the Kennebec River basin are at record high flow
levels.

The very warm start to winter combined with the rain at the end of
December has led to much of the ice in place to be flushed out.

Stick a fork in it.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You can’t run as high as the airport. I bet you run 2-3 cooler for highs. Don’t you have a thermo?

Just waiting on delivery of my Davis and I’ll be up and running hopefully in short order after.  Ordered it this past Sunday.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Just waiting on delivery of my Davis and I’ll be up and running hopefully in short order after.  Ordered it this past Sunday.

Nice. Did you order weather link too? Gotta have that 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice. Did you order weather link too? Gotta have that 

Yep.  Vantage Wireless Pro2 W/FARS.

[Lava Rock]

Yep.  Vantage Wireless Pro2 W/FARS.

FYI, you can interface the davis to weather display. I know you're getting weather link, but take a look at using this software. Been using it for years. Lots of station analysis, noaa style reports and uploading to cwop, etc and your own website if you choose. I use the latter option for my website.
https://www.weather-display.com/


Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

 Nice Bob. I think KTAN is a little warm During the day. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 Nice Bob. I think KTAN is a little warm During the day. 

We quality check.

[Heisy]

sorry for all the images in this post, but they do a better job at explaining than I do...anyway...

Interesting development happened on 18z runs probably no one noticed but my sicko brain. Yesterday I noticed this on the Ukie but didnt think much about it at the time, but this “could” be a pretty interesting development. I also think this wave also helped create the mega bomb on last nights CMC...We’ve been talking about the propensity for NS storms to sneak up on guidance. That is true, but sometimes you also need the southern branch to play along. Well, take a look at the 18z icon progression today at the end of the run. The fail storm that we’ve been tracking is getting sheered out and leaving an elongated frontal boundary in its wake. The icon has this energy kind of meander in the south, but then the NS dives down and it looks like a phase is about to take place. 
 

18z euro at the end of the run was elongating that energy more than the 12. 
 

why does this matter? Having that wave there offers a slim hope to kind of phase something. I’m pretty interested to see if 00z runs pick this up again. Today’s 12z runs has this feature, but since it wasn’t as pronounced it just got kicked east. Sorry, my meteorology lingo isn’t great lol. 
 

Images in order: 18z Icon (2), 18z euro, last nights Ukie, and last nights CMC

[Heisy]

Lastly, 18z eps has a slightly better look with the wave I just mentioned in my post. This wave would help slow the flow down a tad for that NS piece to drop in. Just my amateur .00002 cents

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Lastly, 18z eps has a slightly better look with the wave I just mentioned in my post. This wave would help slow the flow down a tad for that NS piece to drop in. Just my amateur .00002 cents

I’m gonna guess somehow you’re in the patrol car with Anthony and he somehow commandeered your phone to post ?

[Heisy]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m gonna guess somehow you’re in the patrol car with Anthony and he somehow commandeered your phone to post ?

On the way to jail as we speak. 

[powderfreak]

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can’t run as high as the airport. I bet you run 2-3 cooler for highs. Don’t you have a thermo?

The general temperature pattern should be the same though, no?  Warmest day of week won’t change and the departures would be the same if you always ran X-degree variance from another station.  Crazy warm start to January, borderline blow torch in the means.

Crazy a radiator site like TAN only has gone below 32F on what 3 of the first 8 days of January?!

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can’t run as high as the airport. I bet you run 2-3 cooler for highs. Don’t you have a thermo?

Warmer mins too.

[cleetussnow]

22 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

sorry for all the images in this post, but they do a better job at explaining than I do...anyway...

Interesting development happened on 18z runs probably no one noticed but my sicko brain. Yesterday I noticed this on the Ukie but didnt think much about it at the time, but this “could” be a pretty interesting development. I also think this wave also helped create the mega bomb on last nights CMC...We’ve been talking about the propensity for NS storms to sneak up on guidance. That is true, but sometimes you also need the southern branch to play along. Well, take a look at the 18z icon progression today at the end of the run. The fail storm that we’ve been tracking is getting sheered out and leaving an elongated frontal boundary in its wake. The icon has this energy kind of meander in the south, but then the NS dives down and it looks like a phase is about to take place. 
 

18z euro at the end of the run was elongating that energy more than the 12. 
 

why does this matter? Having that wave there offers a slim hope to kind of phase something. I’m pretty interested to see if 00z runs pick this up again. Today’s 12z runs has this feature, but since it wasn’t as pronounced it just got kicked east. Sorry, my meteorology lingo isn’t great lol. 
 

Images in order: 18z Icon (2), 18z euro, last nights Ukie, and last nights CMC

 

 

 

 

 

Excellent post.

I’m sure all will agree that it is perfectly acceptable here to eschew posh weather lingo. ;-) 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

This is almost noose worthy, Talk about depression.

I mean it's pretty crazy how warm it has been to be honest.  Add that in with lack of snow and it's some combo of 2011-12 and 2015-16.  I've still enjoyed snow falling and had plenty of fun ski days, but the first half of winter is quietly racking up some bottom bucket numbers on the whisker plots.

So far to start January we are running a cool +10.1 at MVL and +12.6 at the Picnic Tables.

Following a +5.8 at MVL and +7.2 at the Tables for December.

It's borderline bizarre though how many days the grass outside has been covered by snow though from November 1st onward despite those numbers.  What a weird winter. 

It's almost like someone from down south moved up north and posted a lot about how excited they were for a deep winter like Eyewall did moving from North Carolina, then it took two years to recover to normality .

[Heisy]

9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Excellent post.

I’m sure all will agree that it is perfectly acceptable here to eschew posh weather lingo. ;-) 

I’m a 2.5 year met student drop out so I don’t have much to work with. I didn’t have to make a long post. Could have said. If you want something to keep an eye on see if the remnants of the trash system can help motivate this annoying bitch of an old man winter to get his act together 

[alex]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I mean it's pretty crazy how warm it has been to be honest.  Add that in with lack of snow and it's some combo of 2011-12 and 2015-16.  I've still enjoyed snow falling and had plenty of fun ski days, but the first half of winter is quietly racking up some bottom bucket numbers on the whisker plots.

So far to start January we are running a cool +10.1 at MVL and +12.6 at the Picnic Tables.

Following a +5.8 at MVL and +7.2 at the Tables for December.

It's borderline bizarre though how many days the grass outside has been covered by snow though from November 1st onward despite those numbers.  What a weird winter. 

It's almost like someone from down south moved up north and posted a lot about how excited they were for a deep winter like Eyewall did moving from North Carolina, then it took two years to recover to normality .

What's funny is that it's actually been in my opinion perfect winter temperatures here. Below freezing for the past 4 days, no torches, snow still hanging on the trees, daily flurries and yet no uncomfortable mornings when you wonder why you live in this tundra. Although today's high of 22 did feel strangely chilly skiing. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Stick a fork in it.

Gonna need a big comeback .

[CoastalWx]

Steinuary.

[powderfreak]

33 minutes ago, alex said:

What's funny is that it's actually been in my opinion perfect winter temperatures here. Below freezing for the past 4 days, no torches, snow still hanging on the trees, daily flurries and yet no uncomfortable mornings when you wonder why you live in this tundra. Although today's high of 22 did feel strangely chilly skiing. 

It is a great exercise in showing just how cold the climate is in these parts.  Relative to average, it has been ridiculously far above average but yet still cold enough to hold snow on the ground and stay below freezing.  I flash back to every autumn when the seasonal projections and models come out, precipitation is likely what we want when these types of departures can still be sufficient to keep snow around (we just need it to fall).  I think the temperature departures though are reflected in the lakes and rivers that remain unfrozen in January.  The water is what really responds to the cold high pressure systems with minimal wind flow and crisp temps.

Also, I hear ya on the today felt chilly.  A high of 22F in the NNE mountains in January should not feel chilly, ha.  We should ride the chairlifts in the single digits and teens on average at this point.  20s is a nice day and below zero is a cold day.  I bet in a normal winter, your spot is seeing lows near zero as a normal baseline right now.  There should be at least a couple days per week where you consider not skiing because of how cold it is, or you are riding a lift above 3,000ft while curled in the fetal position, ha. 

So many people up here haven't realized how warm it has been or at least really processed it.  It goes back to the snowmaking discussion, where an average temp of 20F is great snowmaking on the whole, but averaging 27-28F is a problem.  Folks were worried about booting up in the parking lots and resorts were worried about not having enough indoor space at the summits due to building capacity limits.  Not once have I felt the need to go inside to warm up at the Picnic Table level this winter and people shouldn't feel comfortable day after day getting dressed in the parking lots at 1,500ft+ in mid-winter in NNE... those are the little sensible things that show how warm it has been even without looking at numbers.  But it also is a positive during a COVID winter (Disclaimer: not trying to turn it political in any means, just tying in the weather with expectations).

 

[dendrite]

I haven’t had a low below 15° here in 3 weeks. We should be pulling highs around there or even lower. Yet everything is still frozen solid. 

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Hi fives all around for this fantastic pattern. Dr dew must be stoked

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Nah, but I don't waste energy complaining about weather either

[CoastalWx]

I have green flwr stems In sun torched spots coming up. It’s been happening like every year it seems. 

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have green flwr stems In sun torched spots coming up. It’s been happening like every year it seems. 

Same. Note the date stamp on this photo I took during last year’s record January torch. 

[alex]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It is a great exercise in showing just how cold the climate is in these parts.  Relative to average, it has been ridiculously far above average but yet still cold enough to hold snow on the ground and stay below freezing.  I flash back to every autumn when the seasonal projections and models come out, precipitation is likely what we want when these types of departures can still be sufficient to keep snow around (we just need it to fall).  I think the temperature departures though are reflected in the lakes and rivers that remain unfrozen in January.  The water is what really responds to the cold high pressure systems with minimal wind flow and crisp temps.

Also, I hear ya on the today felt chilly.  A high of 22F in the NNE mountains in January should not feel chilly, ha.  We should ride the chairlifts in the single digits and teens on average at this point.  20s is a nice day and below zero is a cold day.  I bet in a normal winter, your spot is seeing lows near zero as a normal baseline right now.  There should be at least a couple days per week where you consider not skiing because of how cold it is, or you are riding a lift above 3,000ft while curled in the fetal position, ha. 

So many people up here haven't realized how warm it has been or at least really processed it.  It goes back to the snowmaking discussion, where an average temp of 20F is great snowmaking on the whole, but averaging 27-28F is a problem.  Folks were worried about booting up in the parking lots and resorts were worried about not having enough indoor space at the summits due to building capacity limits.  Not once have I felt the need to go inside to warm up at the Picnic Table level this winter and people shouldn't feel comfortable day after day getting dressed in the parking lots at 1,500ft+ in mid-winter in NNE... those are the little sensible things that show how warm it has been even without looking at numbers.  But it also is a positive during a COVID winter (Disclaimer: not trying to turn it political in any means, just tying in the weather with expectations).

 

These are graphs of my PWS temperature for this year and the last 2

[alex]

And 2018 for good measure 

[ORH_wxman]

I actually still have snow cover in shaded spots from Sunday night. 

But it’s been like the same thing every day. Highs in upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s.