Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 When I predicted a mild , dry winter.. I will be honest.. I never expected a snowless January. I figured there’d be at least an event or two. Not wire to wire snowless like being modeled. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 7:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Stand by for another Cohen displacement. Now that he has gone all in, we will have two weeks of winter before the rug is pulled out. Watch- Expand Looks like a 2 week winter then off to lawn mowings and flower planting in Feb and Mar...before the nao has revenge in April and May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Are we lining up to Punt any particular period besides the next 7-8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said: When I predicted a mild , dry winter.. I will be honest.. I never expected a snowless January. I figured there’d be at least an event or two. Not wire to wire snowless like being modeled. Expand Your bailing Too soon. It’s coming brotha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I'll go until the 18th, And if modeling and ensembles look like crap after that, I''ll cancel winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said: When I predicted a mild , dry winter.. I will be honest.. I never expected a snowless January. I figured there’d be at least an event or two. Not wire to wire snowless like being modeled. Expand HFD was +1.86" in Dec. We wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 7:21 PM, powderfreak said: Crazy, feels like one of the coldest days in a while, lol. Barely hit 20F up here in the valley so far. Finally getting some ice going. Coldest day of the week in fact. Expand My high for the day has been 20.3°. I'd post the screen from my pws link but it would enrage scooter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said: When I predicted a mild , dry winter.. I will be honest.. I never expected a snowless January. I figured there’d be at least an event or two. Not wire to wire snowless like being modeled. Expand We'll probably have to field at least once historic hyper bomb in the models - It seems hard to run a depressed AO against a tapestry of HC shit ...and the la-Nina gradient patterns, without extraordinary potential always in reach. You don't like to put the gas can next to the window pain, at the back of the garage, when there books of half used matches collecting dust near by... It'll be a fast mover... fetus circulation near Atlanta Georgia gets confused with a Miller B clipper from cryo hell sporing a 57 v-max fisting over WV ... 947 mb low passing 20 M E of ACK - the first time ever an extra-tropical ISE ever did at that particular lat/lon.... Probably the last thing that happens before mid to late February green -up lol... The two phase - Alas, that's on D9 in the Euro... so ... it has sooo much physical numerical instability in the guidance that it actually lasts into the next day of runs ...tho slightly less in form... 955 .. Then, the GFS-Parapellegic throws the bone... but mysterially, it all loses out to a just a -10 at 850 mb cold whack when it's D6 and Ray's reminding us all how Baseball pitchers and catchers report, while Scott thinks we don't suspect him smoldering in his protracted form of a meltdown while he floats tactically hard to prove troll efforts ... Then, it all comes screaming back at 72 hours out...but it's a more "sensible" 963 mb bomb ...but notice it's still historic... and it's even slower a little, because as we near, the compensating physics of deep z-coordinate lows ( for some reason ) slowing against the flow, is seen more readily by nearer termed modeling solutions. ... End result... dust fins around tree trunks at DC with 40" from TTN to PWM .... Everything I just characterized I plagiarized from Jame's scary book without even reading it - I'm pretty sure.... No, but I do in all seriousness get the feeling that we check into some volatility realization out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said: When I predicted a mild , dry winter.. I will be honest.. I never expected a snowless January. I figured there’d be at least an event or two. Not wire to wire snowless like being modeled. Expand La la la lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:01 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... I guess that's what it was, Ray - right... Which I don't disagree.. It's like superposition of factors ( telecon convergence in a sense? though not exactly the same - ) and as folks probably know who've suffered by my diatribes with endurance and grace ...I am a big fan of synergistic concepts. Having La Nina circulation on top of a HC expansion... is a huge constructive interference scheme at a global scale - Heh.. I also want to point out a discussion you and I had back ...jeez I guess it was August? You were asking me over the main forum ENSO thread if the same muting happens with the La Nina...I remember telling you I wasn't sure...Because of what Will was intimating, frankly. It would be really hard to separate the two because they sort of mimic one another... The HC would have higher concomitant easterly trade as mass loading/balancing for enhanced westerlies over top... well., what does that sound like - Not sure how to parse those two factors apart. I think the path of least resistance there is to just go with them as tag teaming.... That's why if you are a snow lover/cold/winter enthusiast...and you have looked on this SSW with mockery and ridicule, you may wan't to don in shit-eating bib and shut the f up because ...heh, you're gonna need it ..So, what I mean is ... the La Nina climo may be a part of Feb but sort of nested in the maelstrom of an already busy hemisphere... so what's the difference. The difference "might" be... forcing of the PV circulation eddy into mid latitudes. Could be fun - Expand What I asked was that if el nino is muted due to warmer ambient ocean, wouldn't la nina be augmented. You said no, but this seems to argue otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:21 PM, Wentzadelphia said: Your bailing Too soon. It’s coming brotha Expand I’m not bailing . But day 10 is here and by next day 10, will it have snowed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:27 PM, mreaves said: My high for the day has been 20.3°. I'd post the screen from my pws link but it would enrage scooter Expand He'll get over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:21 PM, dryslot said: I'll go until the 18th, And if modeling and ensembles look like crap after that, I''ll cancel winter. Expand That's what I said the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's what I said the other day. Expand We will be at the end of Jan by then and have lost Dec and Jan, Won't be making up those losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: What I asked was that if el nino is muted due to warmer ambient ocean, wouldn't la nina be augmented. You said no, but this seems to argue otherwise... Expand well, I may not be remembering that conversation exactly right then, either - very good! 2 for 2 lol Or, I am remembering the conversation right, but I didn't understand what you were really asking before .. there's that too - Whatever was said then versus now,... I don't know how the La Nina would be augmented or not by the HC expansion stuff... I am speculating both aspects there - it could just mute the whole works the same amount ( which is why I said No before ...I remember that - ) but, I cannot be certain. I admit we're hypothesizing here - I do agree that it superimposes over the HC in constructive way so ..mm, that's tough. My problem with the ENSO stuff is that it only forces through the realization of hemispheric seasonal gradient... It's just this simple ( arithmetic concept): If the HC pushes too far away from the NINAs and NINO ...they don't disperse as readily, because they are being cut off from the gradient - which ends up displaced N where the HC rim terminates into the westerlies. It's that simple - the ENSO gets cut off from the party be inclusion in the HC- Either way, I think we can agree that the aN erstwhile forced -AO cap over top, at least offers an interesting final chapter to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I just want cold weather. I'd be happy getting around zero. Barely spent any time cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:34 PM, dryslot said: We will be at the end of Jan by then and have lost Dec and Jan, Won't be making up those losses. Expand Not with the type of February that I expect...at least down here. Just remember two things: 1) N stream systems can emerge inside of 5 days. 2) You may do okay in February up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 7:16 PM, Dr. Dews said: Great day for a hike, even a few mid 40's popping up. can't beat this wx in the dead of winter. Expand Funny, not sure where you are, but hasnt cracked the low 30s here in North central CT. You must be in some micro climate where you are. Enjoy your 40s.. I absolutely love the temps right now!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 12z Euro was uninspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:39 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: Funny, not sure where you are, but hasnt cracked the low 30s here in North central CT. You must be in some micro climate where you are. Enjoy your 40s.. I absolutely love the temps right now!! Expand High has only been 36 here in NYC today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12z Euro was uninspiring. Expand Just a random hunch, but I think the next storm trends to hit late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12z Euro was uninspiring. Expand You are smart enough to not look at op runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:44 PM, MJO812 said: You are smart enough to not look at op runs Expand Yea, because the ensembles have had me pulsating and throbbing for weeks. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 This isn’t too uninspiring, though it’s only 10 days away! But what is inspiring is this look is on basically every model at this frame. We have a 50/50 and ridge. Now I’d like to see this look continue and actually get some digital snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I think we’re toast before then anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:51 PM, Wentzadelphia said: This isn’t too uninspiring, though it’s only 10 days away! But what is inspiring is this look is on basically every model at this frame. We have a 50/50 and ridge. Now I’d like to see this look continue and actually get some digital snow Expand nah...too many height lines. The flow is too fast there. It may engender something there eastern OV to MA but it'll likely be haulin' ass and S of NS in 9 hours flat with that screaming balanced flow that represents the entire scope there. ... The red flag for that is that the environment immediately downstream of that trough only shows vague ridging rolling out ahead of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:54 PM, Typhoon Tip said: nah...too many height lines. The flow is too fast there. It may engender something there eastern OV to MA but it'll likely be haulin' ass and S of NS in 9 hours flat with that screaming balanced flow that represents the entire scope there. ... The red flag for that is that the environment immediately downstream of that trough only shows vague ridging rolling out ahead of it... Expand Yea I agree, but just hoping for a general idea to stick and fluctuate better from this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:57 PM, Wentzadelphia said: Yea I agree, but just hoping for a general idea to stick and fluctuate better from this point Expand well... I'm asking those suffering withdraw symptoms to be objective lol. But, having that look is far better - imho - at this range, than this faux idealized -NAO voodoo we just limped through. This was a like a 80 year-old's boner pattern... torpidly excited. No trough deeper that 552 dm, and no heights greater than 572 or whatever is simple not enough gradient. We really did more than merely figuratively move the pattern from gradient surplus to a dearth therein, too much so to really energize a decent slow mover cash-in. Also didn't help that that NAO was weak sauce frankly. I don't think it was really that - ... I almost think it was just a result of the weird flow abandonment and pattern entropy. That region up there is a natural sort of latent heat dumping region ground for weak-field exhaust... and it was over modeled too. But, soon as the flow speeds up... washed off the board like a dry eraser swipe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 9:09 PM, Typhoon Tip said: well... I'm asking those suffering withdraw symptoms to be objective lol. But, having that look is far better - imho - at this range, than this faux idealized -NAO voodoo we just limped through. This was a like a 80 year-old's boner pattern... torpidly excited. No trough deeper that 552 dm, and no heights greater than 572 or whatever is simple not enough gradient. We really did more than merely figuratively move the pattern from gradient surplus to a dearth therein, too much so to really energize a decent slow mover cash-in. Also didn't help that that NAO was weak sauce frankly. I don't think it was really that - ... I almost think it was just a result of the weird flow abandonment and pattern entropy. That region up there is a natural sort of latent heat dumping region ground for weak-field exhaust... and it was over modeled too. But, soon as the flow speeds up... washed off the board like a dry eraser swipe. Expand I’ll have you know Tip, that the pattern ends up stupidly excited ..... I think. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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