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40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’d still take the powerball jack lol but I get the excitement at the time.

Yeah TSSN or 500mil? Hmmm. Lol. But yeah pure adrenaline at the time. I think he was really hoping to get TSSN because earlier it was reported in BOS. He sure got it. 

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Polar lows are a marine mesoscale phenomenon - though certainly it's plausible that one could 'drift' landward. I've seen one on lake Ontario actually.  I'm not certain they can't formulate over land, but they do need to have that certain sounding set up - i.e., very cold air/CAA passing over open heat source/interfacing and the sounding is very unstable.

What I posted ...it's not abundantly clear that's what those are, but they sure fit the physical description ;)  < 1000 km diameter with very tightly nucleated pressure wells... CAA with lingering DPVA in cyclonic trajectory, "behind" the primary polar baroclinic passage/sfc trough.

They are smaller in scale - hence "meso beta-scale" - which is denoted with Meso B in lit I believe..  but are really meso scale systems.  Those in that image meet the criteria ..

Jim's deal was regular synoptic cyclone ...but as Scott/or whom else may have mentioned, it was plumbed through syrup blue - which is kind of a weird actually.  I had read of thundersnow ...comes from different mechanisms....  Lake Squalls can do that... But TROWALs and CSI ...so forth.  But usually they freezing WB is somewhere involved so that you have phase change nuclie and charge differentiation ...blah blah... It's like the top 1/2 of a CB tower lowered down.  But Jim's storm ...I thought that one was pretty cold ... interesting

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I remember getting thundersnow during that. Was playing outside in the snow with lightning. I think I was outside for like 3-4 hours. I made the mistake of taking a hot bath right when going inside. Ouch

That was like 6am and it wasn’t that far west. 

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The only time I experienced thunder/lightning snow was skiing in Snowbird/Alta back in Feb 2005. Just got done for the day...roughly 4pm. It had been snowing all day. Then the skies opened up and boom/crack. And when you’re that high up in altitude, it feels like it’s on top of your head like a red hat. It was surreal. 

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Great day for a hike, even a few mid 40's popping up. can't beat this wx in the dead of winter.

Crazy, feels like one of the coldest days in a while, lol.  Barely hit 20F up here in the valley so far.  Finally getting some ice going.

Coldest day of the week in fact.

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Great day for a hike, even a few mid 40's popping up. can't beat this wx in the dead of winter.

It is spectacular ... It has the non-acclimation of 'fake warmth' feel to it. Still nice.  No wind.  Also, even tho it's only been what ... 3 weeks since the Solstice the sun ever so slightly already feels warmer in open sky beaming like today.    I would run 6 miles outside but alas...f'ed up my calf muscle a couple weeks ago and I've been doing gym machine stuff instead.   

Such drag getting old -

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is spectacular ... It has the non-acclimation of 'fake warmth' feel to it. Still nice.  No wind.  Also, even tho it's only been what ... 3 weeks since the Solstice the sun ever so slightly already feels warmer in open sky beaming like today.    I would run 6 miles outside but alas...f'ed up my calf muscle a couple weeks ago and I've been doing gym machine stuff instead.   

Such drag getting old -

Jan 8 and Tip has warm cheeks and bums.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is spectacular ... It has the non-acclimation of 'fake warmth' feel to it. Still nice.  No wind.  Also, even tho it's only been what ... 3 weeks since the Solstice the sun ever so slightly already feels warmer in open sky beaming like today.    I would run 6 miles outside but alas...f'ed up my calf muscle a couple weeks ago and I've been doing gym machine stuff instead.   

Such drag getting old -

This isn’t as bad as getting the feels from some February dashboard warmth, but it’s close, damn close...

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8 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

This isn’t as bad as getting the feels from some February dashboard warmth, but it’s close, damn close...

Yeah.. no... feb 8 is the 40N end of perennial solar nadir... From that point until ..I think May 8 it's transition, then of course May 8 to Aug 8 is solar max.  

That's why I am particularly arnery when April is stolen by cold mirk.. I mean, you're like a month from max sun and it's 38F  sure... go for it.   Cloudy with NE drifting boney cryo fingers from that c-note bitch up N - finally! arriving - the -NAO . ... seems to routinely bend over our springs in recent years.   I swear, if I had my financial druthers I'd own a 2nd home in western California ( sans the Pandemic...) and hope for Geological events for entertainment ...say, March 24th through May 8th - and May is negotiable as that month can sometimes blow donkey dong too... Last year was absolutely horrific frankly. I saw 2 snow flurry afternoons and a synoptic slush event ... I mean... three times? That transcends mere fluke. 

Anyway, I won't start trolling winter geese until Feb 8th or so... that's when Kevin and Scotts bums start heating up in parked cars more officially... 

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Hhheh...  

No - 

look, "IF" we can positively confirm the downwelling/propagation of the SSW, it will modulate the AO downward as historical reference hugely correlates.  Regardless of whether that pays cold ( and eventual snow...blah blah ) dividends over on our side of the hemisphere, notwithstanding - it will likely mean a neutralized(ing) or negative AO in general. 

That product would need to be integrating those top down effects, which won't begin to take place for another 7 to 10 days. That's when the tongue of the warming layers flicks and mixes into the polar tropopause...and only then does the PV begin to reel - if it does.  

I have two problems with that product/EPS as he's twitted:

1 ... because of everything I said above, I doubt the EPS' physical parameterization and daily runs are even aware or getting any of that future into the equations ... We're looking at a model brain that is unaware of these outside --> arriving future augmentor(s). 

2 ... even without the SSW and AO link stuff... I'm not even certain the La Nina February climo succeeds.  I don't wanna get into a whole Hadley Cell expose' again.. but I like the way Will paraphrased it the other night when he said to me, '.. whether we consider you HC muting the ENSO stance or not, it still isn't a good thing to have La Nina ...'  ... The last major ENSO events.. also demoed less registry around the World's known climate pathways where it is known to cause havoc.  The muting of the ENSO effect ...does not mean the ENSO isn't happening. I wonder if folks have trouble disconnecting those two... The La Nina could rage on ...and the AO could do what it did this lasts month anyway.   I wonder if those EPS are weighted somehow in deference -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hhheh...  

No - 

look, "IF" we can positively confirm the downwelling/propagation of the SSW, it will modulate the AO downward as historical reference hugely correlates.  Regardless of whether that pays cold ( and eventual snow...blah blah ) dividends over on our side of the hemisphere, notwithstanding - it will likely mean a neutralized(ing) or negative AO in general. 

That product would need to be integrating those top down effects, which won't begin to take place for another 7 to 10 days. That's when the tongue of the warming layers flicks and mixes into the polar tropopause...and only then does the PV begin to reel - if it does.  

I have two problems with that product/EPS as he's twitted:

1 ... because of everything I said above, I doubt the EPS' physical parameterization and daily runs are even aware or getting any of that future into the equations ... We're looking at a model brain that is unaware of these outside --> arriving future augmentor(s). 

2 ... even without the SSW and AO link stuff... I'm not even certain the La Nina February climo succeeds.  I don't wanna get into a whole Hadley Cell expose' again.. but I like the way Will paraphrased it the other night when he said to me, '.. whether we consider you HC muting the ENSO stance or not, it still isn't a good thing to have La Nina ...'  ... The last major ENSO events.. also demoed less registry around the World's known climate pathways where it is known to cause havoc.  The muting of the ENSO effect ...does not mean the ENSO isn't happening. I wonder if folks have trouble disconnecting those two... The La Nina could rage on ...and the AO could do what it did this lasts month anyway.   I wonder if those EPS are weighted somehow in deference -

Will said that if anything, the expansion of the Hadley Cell should augment la nina forcing in February, which makes sense as it would enforce se ridge.

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On the GEFS, it seems about midmonth that the floodgates let loose for polar air. Definitely a bonkers pattern, and it's not perpetually at 384 hours. I don't give a shit, I'm all in. We'll get something good, one would think there's too many good things happening for things not to work out in some capacity.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Will said that if anything, the expansion of the Hadley Cell should augment la nina forcing in February, which makes sense as it would enforce se ridge.

Yeah... I guess that's what it was, Ray - right... 

Which I don't disagree.. It's like superposition of factors ( telecon convergence in a sense? though not exactly the same - ) and as folks probably know who've suffered by my diatribes with endurance and grace ...I am a big fan of synergistic concepts.   Having La Nina circulation on top of a HC expansion... is a huge constructive interference scheme at a global scale - 

Heh..

I also want to point out a discussion you and I had back ...jeez I guess it was August?  You were asking me over the main forum ENSO thread if the same muting happens with the La Nina...I remember telling you I wasn't sure...Because of what Will was intimating, frankly.  It would be really hard to separate the two because they sort of mimic one another... The HC would have higher concomitant easterly trade as mass loading/balancing for enhanced westerlies over top... 

well., what does that sound like - Not sure how to parse those two factors apart.  I think the path of least resistance there is to just go with them as tag teaming....  

That's why if you are a snow lover/cold/winter enthusiast...and you have looked on this SSW with mockery and ridicule, you may wan't to don in shit-eating bib and shut the f up because ...heh, you're gonna need it ;)  ..So, what I mean is ... the La Nina climo may be a part of Feb but sort of nested in the maelstrom of an already busy hemisphere... so what's the difference.  The difference "might" be... forcing of the PV circulation eddy into mid latitudes.  Could be fun -

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