512high Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: We just had our weekly supervisors meeting, and our manager noted that next week looks mild so all of the guys (highway/ parks/ guys who also do the snow plowing) should be able to do interim tasks like painting inside buildings, etc. Basically he was saying we don't have to worry about snow until maybe the end of the month so give them busy work. We just bought a $22,000 plow for our small loader, I will wax it , it will snow I understand Scott and others say mid month, will see, not our luck right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, 512high said: We just bought a $22,000 plow for our small loader, I will wax it , it will snow I understand Scott and others say mid month, will see, not our luck right now As soon as you made payment on that beast you knew it was over. That's the way these things work. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Damn - .. I don't think we got the teleconnectors updated overnight. They're late this morning still, and PSU E-wall didn't update the individual members, either. Too bad, because the operational GFS, Euro and to perhaps 20 or so % lesser extend, the operational GGEM ...all indicate a rather robust regime change after D6 ... That D6 system is still in the works but it's like 40 to 50% chance ( the way leading indicators/modeling situates as of now mind you..), for a low end climo coastal. The bigger deal may evolve toward the Ides of the month, in association with said regime change. But I'd like to see the weight of the tele's behind that. For what it's worth the EPS mean clearly reflects at least some Continental troughing with modest negative anomalies situated D8-9-10 of the 00z cycle - that's probably construed as a enthusiastic headnod in favor. So.. the regime in question is an apparent +PNA or 'westerly-biased' +PNA ... some varient there in. But the PNAP does get into a mid latitude western N/A ridge. The EPO is not really showing signs of modulating negative in these same runs, however. That makes sense, as those leading mass field drivers are not really in line - those being ...a caving WPO transmitting through the NP ... be nice if there was west Pac typhoon to help but...the +WPO look out there appears hemispherically anchored ... not sure we're going to see a change there - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Next week is a decent pattern, we're just not going to cash in. The pattern continuously improves through the month, but we're already in a decent pattern by next week. Shortwave nuances screw up the 1/13 threat though. Fair enough about next week going into a good pattern. I truly believe that if next week starts the better looking set up, something will pop at short lead time imo. Obviously doesn’t guarantee anything, but that’s what seems to happen randomly it seems in set ups like this. And there’s also the possibility we get completely skunked...that’s happened before too. Think that’s unlikely, but it’s certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 EPS 240 (do not have past 240 so not sure where it goes from here). Negative NAO still strong. Pac looks better but not as good as it looked yesterday. Hadley Cell to occur following frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Yesterday am weeklies were still looking good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Tony Soprano's swan song. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, 512high said: Yesterday am weeklies were still looking good? They were fine. Backed off a tad on the porn...but very nice until week 4ish. Week 4 was ok with a -NAO, but Pacific started to get more Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They were fine. Backed off a tad on the porn...but very nice until week 4ish. Week 4 was ok with a -NAO, but Pacific started to get more Nina. Also the caveat that the SSW might actually help us in February and the weeklies wouldn't be able to see it yet. I'm generally an SSW skeptic (in that the hype is way overplayed), but the timing of this one might actually be ideal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Also the caveat that the SSW might actually help us in February and the weeklies wouldn't be able to see it yet. I'm generally an SSW skeptic (in that the hype is way overplayed), but the timing of this one might actually be ideal. Yeah I hope. It did improve up in that domain week 3 so hopefully it carries over. Seems like it should? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 I agree with Scott....next week is gone. Immerse yourself in football, family and work because an investment in weather next over the next 7 days is a week of your life that you will never get back. I am cautiously optimistic about 1/16-1/17. The really fun and meaningful model watching may begin in earnest about mid week next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 1) I would be absolutely stunned if this winter went rat. 2) I expect the vast majority of February to be pretty shitty from about the latitude of SNE points south. Thus I feel pretty confident that we will begin to avail of this pattern after mid month (hate saying ides because I feel like I'm either 80 or Tip). I will be pretty surprised if most of the region does end up with a good 20"+ of snowfall between Jan 15 and about Feb 5. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: EPS 240 (do not have past 240 so not sure where it goes from here). Negative NAO still strong. Pac looks better but not as good as it looked yesterday. Hadley Cell to occur following frames? Love that SER, as it should help keep the storm coming up the coast and the 50-50 doesn't look overwhelming. Does that signal a big NEstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They were fine. Backed off a tad on the porn...but very nice until week 4ish. Week 4 was ok with a -NAO, but Pacific started to get more Nina. Nstream himself -nao would be great for NE no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree with Scott....next week is gone. Immerse yourself in football, family and work because an investment in weather next over the next 7 days is a week of your life that you will never get back. I am cautiously optimistic about 1/16-1/17. The really fun and meaningful model watching may begin in earnest about mid week next week. Like this week, leaning against that too....but not writing it off 8+ days out obviously. I feel like that storm is the flush that gets rid of the stagnant poo pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1) I would be absolutely stunned if this winter went rat. 2) I expect the vast majority of February to be pretty shitty from about the latitude of SNE points south. Thus I feel pretty confident that we will begin to avail of this pattern after mid month (hate saying ides because I feel like I'm either 80 or Tip). I will be pretty surprised if most of the region does end up with a good 20"+ of snowfall between Jan 15 and about Feb 5. That’s where I’m at currently. We will begin to see the fruits of a more favorable pattern after the 15th. I would be absolutely shocked if we rat from here on out. It’s not like last winter where the vortex gained strength and ended winter. We have some decent teleconnections in our favor so far this winter. I believe the lack of cold on our side of the globe has hurt for at the very least a secs event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Like this week, leaning against that too....but not writing it off 8+ days out obviously. I feel like that storm is the flush that gets rid of the stagnant poo pattern. You're thinking cutter on that? One thing I didn't like is that the EPS runs H5 pretty far north, but at this range, it isn't a non-starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You're thinking cutter on that? One thing I didn't like is that the EPS runs H5 pretty far north, but at this range, it isn't a non-starter. I'm not even suggesting that, might be one of those deals with a front and a band of rain or snow on it. But again, it's like 8+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: Is this the summary of "10 Days in January", ha. What a snoozer. I'm getting close to punting this winter, Driving by Lake Auburn today, I could have been out fishing in my boat, This is absurd for Jan 8th, Last time ice free at this time of year was 2006. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not even suggesting that, might be one of those deals with a front and a band of rain or snow on it. But again, it's like 8+ days out. I figured that because you said that it would flush the puke out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I just hope things sort of change and there is better storm potential. Just looking at the country over the next few weeks...for what's going into the "heart" of winter it's pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I just hope things sort of change and there is better storm potential. Just looking at the country over the next few weeks...for what's going into the "heart" of winter it's pretty meh. I have misdiagnosed the Pacific, so far....The PNA has been a welcomed surprise, but I felt the EPO would be more favorable early on....that is what has killed the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have misdiagnosed the Pacific, so far....The PNA has been a welcomed surprise, but I felt the EPO would be more favorable early on....that is what has killed the cold. Agreed...I thought so too we might get better help from the EPO but that has really killed us. If the EPO was even slightly more favorable...I think we would be signing a different tune right now. Moving forward the ULJ looks to remain a bit stronger than average and I'm afraid we will get stuck in a progressive type pattern through the next month with very brief deviations...maybe we can sneak something in during these windows but I hate relying on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: Agreed...I thought so too we might get better help from the EPO but that has really killed us. If the EPO was even slightly more favorable...I think we would be signing a different tune right now. Moving forward the ULJ looks to remain a bit stronger than average and I'm afraid we will get stuck in a progressive type pattern through the next month with very brief deviations...maybe we can sneak something in during these windows but I hate relying on that. I expected the +EPO in the second half, but thought there would be higher heights around AK early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I just hope things sort of change and there is better storm potential. Just looking at the country over the next few weeks...for what's going into the "heart" of winter it's pretty meh. Looks great for the PAC NW mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, qg_omega said: Looks great for the PAC NW mountains Plenty of LES and upslope! Great opportunities for @STILL N OF PIKE to post pics of himself eating sushi in some remote village on a snow chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Cold Miser said: As soon as you made payment on that beast you knew it was over. That's the way these things work. lol Wolf got a new snowmobile. I built a shed at my winter camp....all bad omens. If everyone pulled the plugs on their snowblowers and poured bleach in the cylinders it will snow like a bastard for weeks. Everyone has to do it though. And that goes for wolfs snowmobile. :-). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I expected the +EPO in the second half, but thought there would be higher heights around AK early on. I concur. This actually wants me to really start studying more that whole region of the globe...how evolutions of patterns over the Asia/Russia through the fall correlate to the GOA region moving into winter. There are some teleconnection patterns...I think the PT, WPO, and there is one more which I remember having read have a strong correlation to the pattern evolution within this region but you actually don't see those mentioned very often. 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Looks great for the PAC NW mountains Yeah they'll continue getting smoked. From wildfires this summer/fall to avalanches and mudslides now. Fun place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: Wolf got a new snowmobile. I built a shed at my winter camp....all bad omens. If everyone pulled the plugs on their snowblowers and poured bleach in the cylinders it will snow like a bastard for weeks. Everyone has to do it though. And that STARTS WITH wolfs snowmobile. :-). FYP Wolf has to be the first sacrificial lamb. Like Ray said, hopefully we're back to tracking legitimate threats by mid week, next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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