Torch Tiger Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: Bluebird skies can't be beat https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEIstO77zJE Tomorrows another AN stunner, nice seeing the sun higher in the sky too Almost a repeat of today but slightly less wind. Model soundings suggest boundary layer mixing up to about 925 mb and with temps around -2C at this level, expect highs in the low 40s, upper 30s high terrain. Sunshine and light NNW winds will provide tranquil conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Weeklies ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weeklies ? Looks like they backed off the weenie porn a bit. Not easy on the freebie site to compare though. https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202101070000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202102220000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, DotRat_Wx said: My favorite city beside home Never been to London or Montreal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Hopefully we can continue to keep punching above-average height anomalies into Greenland and into the Arctic region. The big key regarding the SSW too is the structure of the pattern in the upper troposphere and what's already in place. Maybe the SSW would be responsible, or a driver, into plunging colder air back into Canada and perhaps eventually our way, but if the North American pattern is kinda garbage preceding the SSW...it may not be much help for us. What I really like is the signal for a major ridge to become established across the eastern Pacific...very similar to what we actually saw much of the summer and fall. There also continue to be signals for higher pressure around Greenland and if that can remain the case and be strong the PV should get attacked and weakened. Question: Looking at 18z GFS ~200hr...is that classified as a wave-2 or wave-3 pattern? Not sure I buy the antecedent pattern being a big deal going into the SSW....sure, a good pattern already in place can't hurt, but look at Feb 2018...it was like 60-70 all month, then all hell broke loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Eps brings back the storm.for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps brings back the storm.for next week Yeah it did. That was kind of weird but probably not totally surprising given the trouble that model guidance has had handling all these shortwaves. I’d still lean against a storm right now but we certainly cannot rule it out yet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it did. That was kind of weird but probably not totally surprising given the trouble that model guidance has had handling all these shortwaves. I’d still lean against a storm right now but we certainly cannot rule it out yet. Your take on the weeklies today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not sure I buy the antecedent pattern being a big deal going into the SSW....sure, a good pattern already in place can't hurt, but look at Feb 2018...it was like 60-70 all month, then all hell broke loose. It really just comes down to how the cards fall. Feb 2018...man everything fell in place nearly perfectly. Regardless of a SSW or not, there are some positives moving into the second half of the month...but I freaking hate saying this I feel like that phrase is worn out lol. But...continued signs for above-average heights into Greenland/Arctic region with a +PNA...SSW or not, those two things are good to see. Now if we can dump some cold into Canada (which also looks to happen)...well we got the pieces just gotta work with em. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it did. That was kind of weird but probably not totally surprising given the trouble that model guidance has had handling all these shortwaves. I’d still lean against a storm right now but we certainly cannot rule it out yet. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Your take on the weeklies today? No real changes? All systems go for 2nd half of the month. Let’s hope it delivers. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 57 minutes ago, mreaves said: Never been to London or Montreal? Not London, but have been to Montreal. Love Montreal too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No real changes? All systems go for 2nd half of the month. Let’s hope it delivers. The weeklies still trying to bring La Nina pattern on Feb 2nd onward. Though a -NAO looks to persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, leo2000 said: The weeklies still trying to bring La Nina pattern on Feb 2nd onward. Though a -NAO looks to persist. Gotta love how everyone has mourned the scarcity of the NAO over the past several years, now we have it for a month and a half and it's netted one warning event that still deposited the very heavy snows well north and inland. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: Do any mets here know whether any of the global models have the capability to factor into their prediction systems the effects of the onset of a major SSW? Not when it’s two week (minimum) from effecting any AO modulation ... which predates any tropospheric awareness by that much, and more, time. In other words it’s completely invisible to the models that only handle the troposphere because it’s not even in the troposphere yet; interact with the tropopause and that begins to interact in 10 days to two weeks and then there’s yet more time for the AO to completely respond we’re talking about probably the first week of February for this particular SSW maybe the last week of January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 What’s likely to happen with much greater certainty is the ongoing -AO may eventually precede a cold event prior and unrelated, and the consortium will falsely blame the pattern as rooted in the SSW .... and I will be exceedingly annoyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Was there some kinda mega political death threat blowout or something - what’s with the banner warning .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Was there some kinda mega political death threat blowout or something - what’s with the banner warning .. I think you let politics into one of your posts the other day, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 22 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I think you let politics into one of your posts the other day, lol. Heh if I did ( and I think I recall being sardonic in jest ) it was the first time in months. Not something I normally engage in no - Figured maybe somebody flew off the handle because of that stuff going on yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Neat! That video is apparently from Yuzawa, Japan, and if I’m reading the climate data correctly, it looks like the seasonal snowfall average is 466” there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Where’s Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 Looking back at my records, Jan 2011 didn't really get going until the blizzard on the 12th....seasonal totals were pretty comparable to right now. Still time....again, I'm betting against a repeat of that, but the big tickets are unlikely to really show before 3-5 days lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Where’s Kevin? I've seen him online, but nothing to really post about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: What’s likely to happen with much greater certainty is the ongoing -AO may eventually precede a cold event prior and unrelated, and the consortium will falsely blame the pattern as rooted in the SSW .... and I will be exceedingly annoyed Yeah I agree. The hemispheric pattern becomes a lot more favorable for an arctic intrusion later in the month assuming guidance has a clue. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a legit polar express shot show up at some point post-ides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Where’s Kevin? In DC? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: In DC? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looking back at my records, Jan 2011 didn't really get going until the blizzard on the 12th....seasonal totals were pretty comparable to right now. Still time....again, I'm betting against a repeat of that, but the big tickets are unlikely to really show before 3-5 days lead time. Really? It took until mid month to get going? I feel like that whole month was just rocking constantly.....shoveling not small amounts of snow twice even three times a week.....lol Hartford streets were completely impassable cuz they gave up and just used the right lanes to store the snow......one time going to pick up 6 month old the traffic was so bad due to lane reduction everywhere I had to bail and hoof it 6 blocks to get him then carry him in the seat back to car climbing over mountains of uncleared snow at the crosswalk ramps.....wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, ice1972 said: Really? It took until mid month to get going? I feel like that whole month was just rocking constantly.....shoveling not small amounts of snow twice even three times a week.....lol Hartford streets were completely impassable cuz they gave up and just used the right lanes to store the snow......one time going to pick up 6 month old the traffic was so bad due to lane reduction everywhere I had to bail and hoof it 6 blocks to get him then carry him in the seat back to car climbing over mountains of uncleared snow at the crosswalk ramps.....wild I sound like my scicilian grandma talking about her treks to and from school in mountains of snow in the Italian ghetto of Chicago in 1920..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Man, 00z gfs so close to a huge Miller B at 180, little better angle it woulD have ignited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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