40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: The text of the 2-3 above normal for C and SNE doesn't correspond with what the map is showing, at least according to the legend at the bottom. It looks to be 0-1 above. 1-3 above normal. Its because I make verbal tweaks to the analog composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Speaking to Will's point, I was saying yesterday that if we end up netting a big fish out of this, it will probably be with relatively little lead time, as was the case in Jan 2015. The northern stream has a penchant for doing that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Speaking to Will's point, I was saying yesterday that if we end up netting a big fish out of this, it will probably be with relatively little lead time, as was the case in Jan 2015. The northern stream has a penchant for doing that. Northern steam + big meridional flow tends to wreak havoc on lead time (same thing happened in Boxing day too...even if we all didn't like that storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Northern steam + big meridional flow tends to wreak havoc on lead time (same thing happened in Boxing day too...even if we all didn't like that storm) Yep. Definitely....the track nuances have nothing to do with the larger scale point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, ice1972 said: This is what I’m saying.....this quiet stretch is infuriating all by itself but the sting would be less if we still had some pack OTG from December....but no....we got tropical rains instead..... The flavor of the winter matters....and this flavor sucks.....and we’re running out of time quickly....4 maybe 5 weeks left..... Lol...try at least 8 weeks..8 weeks brings us to March 7th. It can and does snow in SNE in March, and many times after March 7th. Actually March averages more snow than December in SNE. So calm down Ice..there’s much more than 4 weeks left of winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Looking at the EPS, I still notice that annoying tendency for waves to dampen out as they approach our longitude. Next real shot looks to be on 1/16, or thereabouts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 I just feel like while the long wave trough is great, the timing of the shortwaves is just off for our area. They blow up either west of us or east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yep. Definitely....the track nuances have nothing to do with the larger scale point. Pattern is definitely there for some big opportunities beyond the ides of the month. I know it's a pain in the ass to wait for a lot of people....sometimes the "meat" of a pattern change gets pushed back a few days even if the general favorable setup starts earlier (we're already in a generally favorable setup next week). I brought up Jan 2013 and 2015 on purpose to illustrate that point. 2015 actually got decently favorable earlier than when the storms started....we got an unlucky brutal cutter mid-month that sent a lot of people over the edge. Ditto Jan 2013....nice longwave pattern and then a brutal cutter to interrupt it before we cashed in. Obviously it would be silly to predict a HECS like either year right now, but the longwave set up is going to be there. It could merely end up with a string of moderate to borderline heavy events like Jan 2009 too (there are similarities with that month's pattern). Or we could get largely skunked like January 2003 after the 1/3-1/4 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looking at the EPS, I still notice that annoying tendency for waves to dampen out as they approach our longitude. Next real shot looks to be on 1/16, or thereabouts. I get the feeling if anything happens in the next 2 weeks, no model or derivative, at present time, will be right - either wrong, or dumb f'n lucky. Even ... whatever it is that is driving the group-think for a better 2nd half of month - those signals, too, completely phantom. I don't think there's "really" anything there... These are all no track-back-able pieces of computer enhanced bullshit we've been looking at and tracking... Whether individual features or events, or the pattern layouts. I've never seen so many phantom mid/extended range runs -... and no, that's also considering standard error. I don't think it's a metric anyone keeps track of, or formulates for that matter, but I think it would be an interesting study to rank all negative model performance eras. Like the SD of error, ...then, all those particularly god-awful piece of shit times where the models are just spraying dung at canvas, say... the "Great -10 SD model performance era of January 2021" ... I have watched closely for five days and have watched one of two things, only: Either wave in flow vanished entirely... or is crimped and damaged FUBAR compared to whatever individual or consensus had thought when they first mapped 'em. It's like why run geo-physical computations at all - they're just guessing. Purely for determinism, it's pretty annoying ... The GEFs AO/NAO handling just oscillated literally ( not figuratively...) from -4 and -1.5 respectively, to 0, to now -2 and -2 respectively, in just three nights. The whole ballast of the membership mind us - ... That's a fantastic indictment on that systemic monitoring - wow Great ..I'm on the 8th edit of this post - sorry... But, I don't see how any of this last ... 5 f'n years for that matter, really lends confidence in anyone's thinking for a candied end of month. But, that means it could, if just going by equal probability for either - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pattern is definitely there for some big opportunities beyond the ides of the month. I know it's a pain in the ass to wait for a lot of people....sometimes the "meat" of a pattern change gets pushed back a few days even if the general favorable setup starts earlier (we're already in a generally favorable setup next week). I brought up Jan 2013 and 2015 on purpose to illustrate that point. 2015 actually got decently favorable earlier than when the storms started....we got an unlucky brutal cutter mid-month that sent a lot of people over the edge. Ditto Jan 2013....nice longwave pattern and then a brutal cutter to interrupt it before we cashed in. Obviously it would be silly to predict a HECS like either year right now, but the longwave set up is going to be there. It could merely end up with a string of moderate to borderline heavy events like Jan 2009 too (there are similarities with that month's pattern). Or we could get largely skunked like January 2003 after the 1/3-1/4 storm. I smell a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I honestly was having fun earlier, and it appears I got Winter Wolf to howl and Ice to start boozing. FTW. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I honestly was having fun earlier, and it appears I got Winter Wolf to howl and Ice to start boozing. FTW. It may not snow again this WInter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I honestly was having fun earlier, and it appears I got Winter Wolf to howl and Ice to start boozing. FTW. Calling for a mid month cutter following the next two whiffs will certainly do just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I honestly was having fun earlier, and it appears I got Winter Wolf to howl and Ice to start boozing. FTW. It doesn't take much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looking at the EPS, I still notice that annoying tendency for waves to dampen out as they approach our longitude. Next real shot looks to be on 1/16, or thereabouts. Close the shades until then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Prediction: ... Joe B's out there will put out dire warning blogs and tweets over the next coming days ... topical? the cryo-dystopian civility crisis about to befall N/A. This will be based purely upon the 50/50 odds method Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Whiff, Whiff, massive cutter......I'd sign up for that just to see the melts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Where the hell is this good pattern that people promised me ? The models keep pushing it back. Euro was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Prediction: ... Joe B's out there will put out dire warning blogs and tweets over the next coming days ... topical? the cryo-dystopian civility crisis about to befall N/A. This will be based purely upon the 50/50 odds method. The SSW is going to eat us all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The SSW is going to eat us all don't get me started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol...try at least 8 weeks..8 weeks brings us to March 7th. It can and does snow in SNE in March, and many times after March 7th. Actually March averages more snow than December in SNE. So calm down Ice..there’s much more than 4 weeks left of winter. By the time you get into second half of February elevation becomes a thing and I’m not high..... that’s why I cut it off at feb 15 or 20.... somewhere in there.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I smell a repeat. That was the year you took back all Bryce's Christmas presents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, OceanStWx said: That was the year you took back all Bryce's Christmas presents. Completely destroyed his finished basement when the 1/24/15 storm was getting more defined on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, ice1972 said: By the time you get into second half of February elevation becomes a thing and I’m not high..... that’s why I cut it off at feb 15 or 20.... somewhere in there.... Lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Hi everyone-checking in. Still nada. See you whenever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I smell a repeat. We probably get mild for a bit next week (not that it’s been that cold) as the pac pukes a bit with the reshuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That was the year you took back all Bryce's Christmas presents. 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Completely destroyed his finished basement when the 1/24/15 storm was getting more defined on the models. It's a good thing it wasn't finished then. There may have been some toys thrown around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: We probably get mild for a bit next week (not that it’s been that cold) as the pac pukes a bit with the reshuffle. Some guidance has a real sharp s/w and redevelopment on the coast with that thing. Regardless, that's what really changes things. Hasn't changed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: don't get me started What happens when a massive -AO from the SSW meets an engorged Hadley Cell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, ice1972 said: By the time you get into second half of February elevation becomes a thing and I’m not high..... that’s why I cut it off at feb 15 or 20.... somewhere in there.... Absolutely not true at all. Honestly that’s some of the silliest stuff I’ve heard in a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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