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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

We need more than an 18z run of the Para.  Remember, yesterday the Euro was the only one with the 12th system.  They lost it subsequently.  Now the Para is the only one with it.

EPS has it. At 18z too...though it doesn’t quite go out far enough at 18z but you can see it developing. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Point is its congruent with what had always been believed to be the onset of the very favorable period.

I don’t want you to paint yourself into a corner but you had mentioned leaning unfavorable in feb. so realistically mid-month through end of month as the favorable period? Or have things changed re: feb?

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

00z GFS is the quietest 6 day outlook I have seen for winter.  A lot of wave interference.  Everything in the southern stream gets stretched and phases with the northern stream over New Foundland not southeast of ACY.

Just being consistent with its run last night showing 10 days of quiet.  Actually that run was quiet for the whole 16 day period.  Probably not going to happen that way, though.

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7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Just being consistent with its run last night showing 10 days of quiet.  Actually that run was quiet for the whole 16 day period.  Probably not going to happen that way, though.

Huge longwave trough develops on January 15h, with a strong to intense - EPO/+PNA coupled with the -AO/-NAO regime.  Big storm potential between the 15-19th  EPS likes the storm next week!

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