Cold Miser Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The mid-Atlantic will be stealing our snow again. They must be about due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Go ahead back up, More of a nuisance then anything. 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Go ahead back up, More of a nuisance then anything. Back it up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Yeah... low is anchored out there ... and bands are moving west ... There's even semblance of a small eddy gyre over Upstate NY ..quasi attached to that mess. The whole thing is intrinsically in retrograde characteristic, and whether the NAO is demonstrative in the grids or observations, that retrograde behavior is consistent with -NAO. See, I mentioned this last week - that sometimes the flow begins to act prior to the onset of the actual index presentation - it's like the physical triggers are detected in the model(s) physical process before hand. I don't know if that's really what's happening here - it just reminds me of that conversation. Either way, this day's banded west movement was pretty heavily suggested by guidance over the last four days of denial that this thing would miss - ha. And staring at those sat loops because it's like anything the swirls! yeah... heh, anyway, it's almost easy to see how a Feb 1969 can set up - if that thing out there was rattling around between Cape Cod and D.E.M. ..it'd be sending consecutive intervals of moderate snows in to eastern NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Retro flurries. The pavement was dusted early this morning, but that's melted. Temps have been remarkably stable - seems like we've hovered a couple degrees on either side of 30 for days. As Tamarack mentioned earlier, low temps have been way above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Back half of a nina isn't generally promising for the MA, hopefully they can score an event or two here in the next few weeks. And climo is favorable enough locally to slowly build the icepack even with boring, slightly AN temps. Light winds too. Reason for cautious optimism from the models last night. Hounds may be starting to stir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 50 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its one thing to have no snow, Its another to have no ice too, This is not good. Pick your poison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Its one thing to have no snow, Its another to have no ice too, This is not good. not good, it's great. A special winter 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Here's an odd one... the 00z Para psychosis GFS version takes a 985 mb low passing SE of the BM down to 953 mb in just 6 hours ... That's RI/TC territory there... In fact, I don't think I've ever heard of that kind of deepening rate like ...on Earth 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: People should be signing up for this look. 4 weeks of rage in 2011: 4 weeks of rage in 2009: Some similarities....2009 was displaced a little north with the ATL ridging, but 2011 is a pretty close match. Both had the western ridge displaced just offshore. What happened in 08-09? Memory is fuzzy as I was quite young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: People should be signing up for this look. 4 weeks of rage in 2011: 4 weeks of rage in 2009: Some similarities....2009 was displaced a little north with the ATL ridging, but 2011 is a pretty close match. Both had the western ridge displaced just offshore. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Bingo. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: What happened in 08-09? Memory is fuzzy as I was quite young. Pretty snowy period for New England....BOS specifically had around 3 feet of snow in the 4-5 weeks period from 12/31 to early February. Not as epic as 2011, but a very good period. 2009 was really cold though, I wouldn't expect the cold to match that month. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Yeah set ups like that that are like the good old days of the Snowy Epoch before this mean reversion started kicking our gonads. We take, but you’ll excuse me for wearing an MMA-rated cup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty snowy period for New England....BOS specifically had around 3 feet of snow in the 4-5 weeks period from 12/31 to early February. Not as epic as 2011, but a very good period. 2009 was really cold though, I wouldn't expect the cold to match that month. I was in Easton that winter. I recall SE MA straddled the r/s line more so than metro west Jan/Feb 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 44 minutes ago, PWMan said: Retro flurries. The pavement was dusted early this morning, but that's melted. Temps have been remarkably stable - seems like we've hovered a couple degrees on either side of 30 for days. As Tamarack mentioned earlier, low temps have been way above normal. Sun angle starting to get harsh. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 10 days left in the period, 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Tropical tidbits has the EPS out to 10 days for free. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2021010412&fh=0 Ecmwf.int has the weeklies for free but the interface looks like it was designed with the same technology as Excite Bike. But here’s the link anyway, you can get the idea. https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202101040000&projection=opencharts_global&valid_time=202101110000 Wow I had no idea about the free weeklies on ecmwf.int! And I thought the graphics were fine. Thanks Will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, PWMan said: Retro flurries. The pavement was dusted early this morning, but that's melted. Temps have been remarkably stable - seems like we've hovered a couple degrees on either side of 30 for days. As Tamarack mentioned earlier, low temps have been way above normal. I went back and looked at Dec avg's since 2017. 2017 was an ice box compared to the last 3 yrs. 2017 21.8F 2018 27.0F 2019 28.1F 2020 30.3F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 52 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I was in Easton that winter. I recall SE MA straddled the r/s line more so than metro west Jan/Feb 2009. Easton did well. There was a massive gradient from about Duxbury on west-southwest through Taunton into RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol As I said, if 2011 happens I will build a Ginxy statue. It just may be made of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As I said, if 2011 happens I will build a Ginxy statue. It just may be made of snow. A frozen statue of Steve and all his dogs pulling a sled like an Alaskan racer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Give me just one 2011esque storm and I’d call it a great success 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Give me just one 2011esque storm and I’d call it a great success Yep....I cannot expect to get lucky with a train of like 5 warning criteria storms in 4 weeks even with a 2011 pattern. Many other great patterns whiffed for a while before producing....2013 comes to mind. We had like a January 2005 analog going there for 2 weeks in late January 2013 but then everyone on the forum melted down and threw tantrums because we weren't getting 4-6" with every shortwave. Then finally 2/8/13 happened. 2003 was another good example...esp for the coastal plain. After the 1/3-4/03 storm, which largely skunked the CP, we had a great pattern for literally a full month with very little to show for it, then all of the sudden all hell broke loose in February. Then sometimes you just never really cash in like January 1985 or late Jan/Feb 2010. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Give me just one 2011esque storm and I’d call it a great success The Ever Elusive Norlun kicked off the snow blitz. Did that thing deliver..snowed to beat the band from about 4:30pm to about 9:30pm, and we picked up about 10”. That was special. Hope we can score something significant coming up. I’m certainly not expecting ’11, but hope we get some decent whacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 12z GEFS are "dry" for next 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The Ever Elusive Norlun kicked off the snow blitz. Did that thing deliver..snowed to beat the band from about 4:30pm to about 9:30pm, and we picked up about 10”. That was special. Gioe we can score something significant ok’ing up. I’m certainly not expecting ’11, but hope we get some decent whacks. Yep, that week is in the running for greatest week of winter weather I've seen, running just behind three consecutive weeks in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Easton did well. There was a massive gradient from about Duxbury on west-southwest through Taunton into RI. Yeah...we did well. But I recall a MLK storm that was messy in Easton that performed better in Woburn. I hated missing out on snows. I was out of the country for 2011 too (can't complain too much about that though). Cold & active period coming up. Just need to get through the next 7 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As I said, if 2011 happens I will build a Ginxy statue. It just may be made of snow. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep....I cannot expect to get lucky with a train of like 5 warning criteria storms in 4 weeks even with a 2011 pattern. SNE missed out on 2/25 too...that was about a foot of paste up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 From Washington Post / Boston.com today... Not agreeing or disagreeing, and I know previously discussed here extensively... Simplistic explanation of recent SSW event, split PV, negative AO / NAO, possible implications for us: https://www.boston.com/uncategorized/weather/2021/01/05/the-polar-vortex-is-splitting-in-two-which-may-lead-to-weeks-of-wild-winter-weather 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z GEFS are "dry" for next 7 days May as well make it next 20 days at this point, looks very zzzzzzzz for the next 20 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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