Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 1:23 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s funny how a me and twitter met are essentially saying the same thing but he starts with hype so it gets noticed and weenies are flying out of zippers while I start with some caution flags so it looks like I’m a debbie downer lol. Kinda cool to see how the approach changes perception actually. Expand Pretty much everything points to mid month and has for a month. Let's do this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 1:23 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s funny how a me and twitter met are essentially saying the same thing but he starts with hype so it gets noticed and weenies are flying out of zippers while I start with some caution flags so it looks like I’m a debbie downer lol. Kinda cool to see how the approach changes perception actually. Expand It’s all an interesting mental game. Weenies generally adhere to those posting favorable thoughts. They hate when you talk about caution flags or anything unfavorable. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 1:25 PM, Ginx snewx said: Pretty much everything points to mid month and has for a month. Let's do this Expand Yup. I’m cautiously optimistic and pumped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 1:23 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s funny how a me and twitter met are essentially saying the same thing but he starts with hype so it gets noticed and weenies are flying out of zippers while I start with some caution flags so it looks like I’m a debbie downer lol. Kinda cool to see how the approach changes perception actually. Expand And that’s the Marketing of it all....gotta sell it to the (Weenies) masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 1:26 PM, CoastalWx said: It’s all an interesting mental game. Weenies generally adhere to those posting favorable thoughts. They hate when you talk about caution flags or anything unfavorable. Expand I see that. Past couple years I’ve learned to take the caution flag approach a little more because it’s not a magic wand that makes it snow along the CP. Some seasons it feels that way...it snows when a shortwave farts east of the OV but that skews perceptions and expectations. I love the pattern moving forward. I’m a big block guy...but I’d like to see a little more before I start spanking it. That’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 The back to back Xmas grinch and NYE grinch rainers are so annoying.....I don’t recall a more pathetic week as that.... even during last years ratter.....or that other winter - like 2007? - when I golfed in mid January.....it was like 65 degrees lol..... we better turn this S around.... and right quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 2:29 PM, ice1972 said: The back to back Xmas grinch and NYE grinch rainers are so annoying.....I don’t recall a more pathetic week as that.... even during last years ratter.....or that other winter - like 2007? - when I golfed in mid January.....it was like 65 degrees lol..... we better turn this S around.... and right quick Expand Where do you live ? You complain more than I do down here in NYC. It sucks seeing coastal being rain but be patient. I already got way more snow than I did last winter and I'm 3 inches above my average for December. I'm at 8 inches for the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 2:33 PM, MJO812 said: Where do you live ? You complain more than I do down here in NYC. It sucks seeing coastal being rain but be patient. I already got way more snow than I did last winter and I'm 3 inches above my average for December. I'm at 8 inches for the winter. Expand He doesn’t live on the coast lol...you’d think he did though lmao. He lives in Central inland CT...he’s obviously doing better than you are in the snow department. We don’t feel bad... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 2:33 PM, MJO812 said: Where do you live ? You complain more than I do down here in NYC. It sucks seeing coastal being rain but be patient. I already got way more snow than I did last winter and I'm 3 inches above my average for December. I'm at 8 inches for the winter. Expand Death Valley CT but he has a delusion that he lives in the Sierras. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 2:29 PM, ice1972 said: The back to back Xmas grinch and NYE grinch rainers are so annoying.....I don’t recall a more pathetic week as that.... even during last years ratter.....or that other winter - like 2007? - when I golfed in mid January.....it was like 65 degrees lol..... we better turn this S around.... and right quick Expand Is today‘a storm really a “grinch” storm? Yeah it’s raining, but there’s no snow on the ground, and it’s not that warm. Sure it’s not snow but feels more like a regular ole winter rain storm for the coastal plain, which we get often, then something I would associate as a “grinch” ruining the season storm. Maybe it’s just me on this one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 What a weenie storm on the gfs for mid month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 2:29 PM, ice1972 said: The back to back Xmas grinch and NYE grinch rainers are so annoying.....I don’t recall a more pathetic week as that.... even during last years ratter.....or that other winter - like 2007? - when I golfed in mid January.....it was like 65 degrees lol..... we better turn this S around.... and right quick Expand At least wait until afternoon to hit the egg nog today. It's a long night. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Davis Strait block.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 EGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 6:51 PM, CoastalWx said: EGW Expand Did you see how this run breaks off a little piece of the PV around D4-5 and that actually then gets trapped in S Canada and keeps some decent cold around? You can see it sitting there just SE of Hudson Bay on the map I posted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Was 2011 the last real big -NAO in January? Can't recall anything modeled like this in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 6:53 PM, ORH_wxman said: Did you see how this run breaks off a little piece of the PV around D4-5 and that actually then gets trapped in S Canada and keeps some decent cold around? You can see it sitting there just SE of Hudson Bay on the map I posted. Expand I just saw now. And then we have that massive gyre there at the end. just spinning vorts on the periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 6:54 PM, ma blizzard said: Was 2011 the last real big -NAO in January? Can't recall anything modeled like this in a long time Expand Yes. We did have a shorter lived block in Jan 2016 but it never got as intense as current model guidance is suggesting this one could be. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Nice snowstorm on the euro next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 6:53 PM, ORH_wxman said: Did you see how this run breaks off a little piece of the PV around D4-5 and that actually then gets trapped in S Canada and keeps some decent cold around? You can see it sitting there just SE of Hudson Bay on the map I posted. Expand Much better. Having a piece of the PV on our side trapped under the block...ok ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 6:56 PM, CoastalWx said: I just saw now. And then we have that massive gyre there at the end. just spinning vorts on the periphery. Expand The block is just bullying everything to the point where our chances start before the 10th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 That’s getting weenie-ish on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 That’s definitely the signal I was looking for too. Not sure why is was more zonal earlier...maybe smoothed out or timing differences....but that’s a block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 7:29 PM, CoastalWx said: That’s getting weenie-ish on the EPS. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 7:30 PM, CoastalWx said: That’s definitely the signal I was looking for too. Not sure why is was more zonal earlier...maybe smoothed out or timing differences....but that’s a block. Expand Yeah plenty of ant-cyclonic curve on that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 6:53 PM, ORH_wxman said: Did you see how this run breaks off a little piece of the PV around D4-5 and that actually then gets trapped in S Canada and keeps some decent cold around? You can see it sitting there just SE of Hudson Bay on the map I posted. Expand That is absolute perfection there....cosmic evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 7:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is absolute perfection there....cosmic evolution. Expand So nice to see "evolution" following "cosmic" for a change versus the other common phrasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 7:53 PM, NorEastermass128 said: So nice to see "evolution" following "cosmic" for a change versus the other common phrasing. Expand I'm like Scott in that I don't sugar coat shit to salvage weenie pride and aspirations, but when its time to honk, then honk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 7:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is absolute perfection there....cosmic evolution. Expand It’s a darn good look. Maybe several days earlier than I thought too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 On 12/31/2020 at 8:15 PM, CoastalWx said: It’s a darn good look. Maybe several days earlier than I thought too. Expand Many of the members must be breaking off a piece of the PV like the OP. I noticed the heights down in Ontario and our region look lower than previously. That’s obviously a good thing....even a little bit of fresh airmass enhancement goes a long ways when you have a block like that. A little more antecedent air can give a lot more wiggle room. Hopefully we see that trend stay on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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