moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 5:53 PM, CoastalWx said: Hmmm. That’s a good question. Am I technically SE MA? Expand I have no idea what you'd call Westborough. Just NW of the Pike/495 interchange. Regardless, it's not as snowing as Pit2, GC, or ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:02 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Where is this warming event being observed - what source. How is it being defined. Expand Good time to drop this link in http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php?im=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 5:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good timing because I was just thinking that I'm done with this winter until a major snow event is imminent. Expand eh, is it truly major though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:02 PM, moneypitmike said: I have no idea what you'd call Westborough. Just NW of the Pike/495 interchange. Regardless, it's not as snowing as Pit2, GC, or ORH. Expand That’s easy. Blackstone River Valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I didn't see the Ukie posted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said: That’s easy. Blackstone River Valley Expand Assabet River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:45 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Assabet River. Expand Whatever river he’s near.. he’s in that valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:45 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Assabet River. Expand Nice name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:22 PM, Henry's Weather said: eh, is it truly major though? Expand Underdog that it will end up a big storm, but can't rule it out. Marginal airmass (though at least it appears better than 12/5 as modeled) and a lot of shortwaves in the flow don't allow for much margin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:58 PM, ORH_wxman said: Underdog that it will end up a big storm, but can't rule it out. Marginal airmass (though at least it appears better than 12/5 as modeled) and a lot of shortwaves in the flow don't allow for much margin. Expand I was poking fun at Ray's definition of major, but what you said makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:56 PM, Ginx snewx said: Nice name Expand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assabet_River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:22 PM, Henry's Weather said: eh, is it truly major though? Expand TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:58 PM, ORH_wxman said: Underdog that it will end up a big storm, but can't rule it out. Marginal airmass (though at least it appears better than 12/5 as modeled) and a lot of shortwaves in the flow don't allow for much margin. Expand EPS lit up today for day 5 and beyond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 9:08 PM, Ginx snewx said: EPS lit up today for day 5 and beyond Expand They are a little more bullish on a Davis Strait block...and we will need it for sure the first 10 days of the month with the garbage PAC. Hopefully a better PAC materializes beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:02 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Where is this warming event being observed - what source. How is it being defined. Expand It is coming from Siberia it's called a Siberian SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 9:08 PM, Ginx snewx said: EPS lit up today for day 5 and beyond Expand Seems like the snow starts melting quickly next week . 40’s every day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 7:42 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Scooter went from farting in everyone’s face this morning to posting about snowstorms in mid Atlantic. Absolutely stunning turn of events in a few short hours. Antonio Davis to Paul Kocin ... in the blink of an eye. Expand How many IPAs in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 9:55 PM, leo2000 said: It is coming from Siberia it's called a Siberian SSW. Expand Is this going to cause a “True Split” of the Polar Vortex? Or is this just another situation where it takes some big jabs and then reconsolidates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 9:59 PM, WinterWolf said: Is this going to cause a “True Split” of the Polar Vortex? Or is this just another situation where it takes some big jabs and then reconsolidates? Expand it is very very unlikely to reconsolidate it is taking massive hits. Sudden stratospheric warming is underway! Here's a selection of radiosonde ascents from Russia & Mongolia at 12Z today, which captured the warming in the mid-stratosphere. http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html… Replying to @SimonLeeWx If the ECMWF is correct, we have good conditions for a SSW with downward impact! European blocking is the best precursor for a NAO- response (see https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020… with @cgrams_lsdp and L. Papritz), and it's predicted for the first week of January! https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-regime-probabilities?forecast_from=latest… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Record warmth for the first two weeks of January is on the table 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 10:00 PM, leo2000 said: it is very very unlikely to reconsolidate it is taking massive hits. Expand So this might be the real deal as far as a real split goes this time then...? Hopefully if it does split, we get some of the affects on our side of the pole/globe also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 10:04 PM, WinterWolf said: So this might be the real deal as far as a real split goes this time then...? Hopefully if it does split, we get some of the affects on our side of the pole/globe also? Expand Yes it looks like it for real this now. Two weeks after a SSW peaks (in the Siberian cases, only) This information and model is from Met Michael Ventrice on Twitter. He is also doesn't have a weenie bias. He calls it how he sees it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 9:57 PM, CoastalWx said: How many IPAs in? Expand You’ve been downright mean to some people here and Twitter the last few days. Hate to see it . I truly hope you get snow on Sunday night. You need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 10:12 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You’ve been downright mean to some people here and Twitter the last few days. Hate to see it . I truly hope you get snow on Sunday night. You need it Expand What a clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Para gfs is nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 10:03 PM, qg_omega said: Record warmth for the first two weeks of January is on the table Expand Que? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 10:28 PM, dmillz25 said: Que? Expand He might have been issuing a forecast for the Davis Strait or northern Quebec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 10:43 PM, ORH_wxman said: He might have been issuing a forecast for the Davis Strait or northern Quebec. Expand lol for the Northeast, looks like +8 first two weeks to start the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 10:43 PM, ORH_wxman said: He might have been issuing a forecast for the Davis Strait or northern Quebec. Expand Hey just wanted to let ya know I plan on moving to Worcester next fall. Depends on work of course, but the next 10 months will be solely working on that goal. Excited! You guys will never get rid of me then, sorry. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 10:08 PM, leo2000 said: Yes it looks like it for real this now. Two weeks after a SSW peaks (in the Siberian cases, only) This information and model is from Met Michael Ventrice on Twitter. He is also doesn't have a weenie bias. He calls it how he sees it. Expand I think there is something to the big Ural/Barents Sea high and Aleutian low. That’s seems to really help get the displacement and/or split. Not sure it’s ever splits, but whatever. Anyways, from what I saw...very very unusual to have this in a Niña. We’ll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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