NavarreDon Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 First off Merry Christmas to all of you! Spent some time this morning reminiscing by going back thru the old Christmas 2010 threads. Lot's of new faces but, lot's of us who rode that roller coaster. If you have time check those old threads & or post your memories of this classic! Mine were the gut wrenching model runs. The highs, lows, & highs. Waking up before my kids on Christmas morning to catch up the discussion threads, then seeing actual snow falling in Weaverville, NC, my all time favorite AFD by GSP that started with "Sometimes I think I should have been a farmer!", to finishing with over a foot of snow. What are some of your favorite memories?.......has it really been 10 years!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 My one and only white Christmas back when mom was alive. A special storm for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Found some old GSP discos that just bring back the excitement! .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE VEERED DRAMATICALLY BACK INTO THE HEAVY SNOW CAMP FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NRN STREAM STREAM SHORT WAVE IS DIGGING MORE THAN THE MODELS HAD ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE INCREASING DARK BAND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IS DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIVERGENCE AND QG FORCING. A BAND OF 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDS ACROSS TN AND INTO WRN NC. THIS BAND IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PCPN OVER SRN TN. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 18 UTC...WHICH MATCHES THE INCREASING PCPN TREND. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW HAVE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN OVER THE MTNS OF NC/SC/GA AND THE NC FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00 UTC TODAY. WITH A SNOW RATIO OF 12:1...THIS WOULD YIELD OVER 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WE/VE BEEN PLAYING CATCHUP WITH THIS EVENT...AND THE 6 INCH TOTALS I HAVE IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS TODAY WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT LEAST. THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO DOWN TREES...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND WILL MAKE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE MTNS BY LATER IN THE MORNING....WITH THE NC FOOTHILLS EXPERIENCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. IN SHORT...THIS IS GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS WINTER STORM FOR THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY. THEN THERE IS PART TWO. A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS ONLY INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TODAY...WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE NRN STREAM WAVE. AS THE NRN STREAM WAVE IS SLOWER AND DEEPER...IT LOOKS TO PHASE MORE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...A PIVOTING BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. BOTH NAM AND GFS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A GOOD AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV CROSSING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD 0600 UTC. AS THIS HAPPENS...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE. FOR NOW I/M JUST GOING WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH IS STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING UP THE I-85 AND I-77 CORRIDORS. HOWEVER...IF THIS WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT AND PHASING CONTINUES...THEN HEAVIER SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 And here it is!!! NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --SOMETIMES I THINK I SHOULD HAVE BEEN A FARMER. AT LONG LAST...WE /THINK/ WE ARE GETTING A SOLID HANDLE ON THE UNFOLDING WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SHARPLY AFTER THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO...AS MUCH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE AND EVEN CONVECTIVE SCALE PROCESSES. AS OF 16Z...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DRIFT/EXPAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME. IN FACT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MAKES THE JUMP TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP WHERE ITS ALREADY FALLING...AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL NEED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT. WE WILL NOW ADVERTISE 8-12 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND BUMP THE I-40 PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS TO 5 TO 8 INCHES. AS USUAL...THE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAVEAT APPLIES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 I remember that. My grandparents came up to NC from Fl. We were eating dinner kind of early that afternoon. Sitting there at the dinner table as the first flakes started. It snow good and hard over night. Ended up with about 6-7". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 I only got around 1.5-2 inches Xmas night, but it was honestly as much as I could have hoped for in my location. Also got my biggest storm ever a few weeks later. Finger crossed 2021 plays out like 2011 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I'm not sure about the Carolina side, but southeast Tennessee was somewhat locked in a couple days prior. That's pretty good for Southeast modeling. From 2-4 inches was forecast around here and verified Christmas morning - mostly during daylight hours. Points north and east got more, and like the Carolinas the forecast probably ebbed and flowed. I think I recall that deal. Chatty got blanked in 2020 while northeast Tennessee got the second white Christmas in 10 years. Probably be another 30 around here. From 1969 to 2010 was 41 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 That was a wonderful snow. Wish you were still here Don. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 On 12/25/2020 at 9:44 AM, FLweather said: I remember that. My grandparents came up to NC from Fl. We were eating dinner kind of early that afternoon. Sitting there at the dinner table as the first flakes started. It snow good and hard over night. Ended up with about 6-7". Roxboro at the time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 It was a little disappointment as we missed the rain/snow line for the first half by maybe 10 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 We ended up with about 3 inches here but I don't remember the snow starting until after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 55 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Roxboro at the time? Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 If I remember correctly, some of the long range modeling showed the possibility of a white Christmas early on. I told my wife that we’d have snow on the ground by Christmas Day evening. She thought I was nuts. Then the models backed off and I became nervous. But it happened. I think we ended up with about 6”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Yes I vaguely recall the 2010 system was there Day 5-6, got lost a little bit Day 3-4, then came back by Day 2. Not atypical. This year for KCHA was always a whiff from Day 10 in. At least the fcst was accurate, even if sad, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Yes I vaguely recall the 2010 system was there Day 5-6, got lost a little bit Day 3-4, then came back by Day 2. Not atypical. This year for KCHA was always a whiff from Day 10 in. At least the fcst was accurate, even if sad, lol! If I recall correctly. Christmas Day for the most part was cold and cloudy. It started flurries. Just after mid day late afternoon. Towards Danville they didn't get as much. But for the most part it was powder. By the 27th it was pretty much gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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