Hoosier Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 If you're in IL/IN or anywhere else that has been struggling so far, the good news is that January almost has no choice but to be better than December. Better and good are not necessarily the same thing though. The last Nina January that was warmer than average across the region was 2012. Will we get a warmer than average January this time or can the cold show up and have staying power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 First 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 If you're in IL/IN or anywhere else that has been struggling so far, the good news is that January almost has no choice but to be better than December. Better and good are not necessarily the same thing though. The last Nina January that was warmer than average across the region was 2012. Will we get a warmer than average January this time or can the cold show up and have staying power? Even though it was warmer than normal, January 2012 happened to be the best month of that winter, two decent storms and the only AN snow month of the cool season. The second event in January 2012 had nice high ratio fluff with the longest duration of 1/4 mile visibility in snow at ORD and MDW since GHD I and caused nightmare travel on a Friday afternoon commute. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Heck of a -NAO developing on most guidance now for early January. Will get the East Coast weenies in a tizzy. That trough in the Gulf of Alaska would flood the US w/ mild Pacific air, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 CFS is still warmer than average for January. Maybe the month can still be serviceable though, or at least part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Absolute trainwreck. Abandon all hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 euro weeklies look good mid January on. until then, hopefully we can continue to get snows even if they melt. This coincides with the talk of pattern change we have had for a while.. with little doubt the 2nd half of January will be wintrier than the 1st half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 Final CFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Final CFS Could be the best of both worlds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 You're damn straight, cold rain ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Happy New Year! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 12 hours ago, snowlover2 said: Happy New Year! Happy New Year to all my fellow weather weenies. May 2021 be filled with fun weather and a lot less covid! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Happy new year all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 What's happening in the Bering Sea currently has to be getting some people excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Final CFS If the ECMWF weeklies are on the right track, you can toss that CFS January prog as far as you can throw it. Here's a loop of the weeklies put together by a frequent poster on the New England sub: Because there were very valid fears about a warm outcome this winter and we see already how mild December was, the increasingly likely development of major high latitude blocking in the Arctic and Atlantic can only be a good thing. We take and hope more of the subforum can benefit this month and likely beyond. Can probably also include this in the medium-long range thread. PS: Happy New Year to all! Here's to a snowy next couple months and eventually better things to come in 2021 than what 2020 gave us. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 31 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: If the ECMWF weeklies are on the right track, you can toss that CFS January prog as far as you can throw it. Here's a loop of the weeklies put together by a frequent poster on the New England sub: Because there were very valid fears about a warm outcome this winter and we see already how mild December was, the increasingly likely development of major high latitude blocking in the Arctic and Atlantic can only be a good thing. We take and hope more of the subforum can benefit this month and likely beyond. Can probably also include this in the medium-long range thread. PS: Happy New Year to all! Here's to a snowy next couple months and eventually better things to come in 2021 than what 2020 gave us. As far as whether the CFS look has a chance to verify, I think it's gonna come down to how much damage is done in the first week or two of the month because it does look better with time. Happy New Year to you and everyone as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 The system late Saturday into Sunday has overachiever written on it. Nice deepening/neg tilted with some decent lapse rates to work with. Thermal profiles could be better but I could envision an area of 3-5" and not entirely out of the realm of possibility to flirt with warning criteria in some spots, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 39 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The system late Saturday into Sunday has overachiever written on it. Nice deepening/neg tilted with some decent lapse rates to work with. Thermal profiles could be better but I could envision an area of 3-5" and not entirely out of the realm of possibility to flirt with warning criteria in some spots, imo. Agree, we have seen setups like this end up very well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 53 minutes ago, Stebo said: Agree, we have seen setups like this end up very well. It's funny... when I was looking at it I thought that it reminded me of 2/5/11. Just how it looks and where it's coming from. So I checked CIPS out of curiosity and guess what showed up as the #1 analog? 2/5/11. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 26 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's funny... when I was looking at it I thought that it reminded me of 2/5/11. Just how it looks and where it's coming from. So I checked CIPS out of curiosity and guess what showed up as the #1 analog? 2/5/11. oh wow. That event was awesome. will be interesting to see what happens. Its frustrating as hell to see these snows melt, but we've not done too shabby in the snowfall department this so far pacific dominated winter..with whisperings of a much wintrier pattern a few weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: The system late Saturday into Sunday has overachiever written on it. Nice deepening/neg tilted with some decent lapse rates to work with. Thermal profiles could be better but I could envision an area of 3-5" and not entirely out of the realm of possibility to flirt with warning criteria in some spots, imo. Hopefully you do better then the snowfall forecasts for extreme NE IL the last two events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Hopefully you do better then the snowfall forecasts for extreme NE IL the last two events. Running out of time for substantial northward shifts. Looks like very little in the city and north. The shot at 3-5" would be toward the southeastern LOT cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Running out of time for substantial northward shifts. Looks like very little in the city and north. The shot at 3-5" would be toward the southeastern LOT cwa. Yeah not expecting anything here. Looks quiet till mid month after this weekend. Still see problems with not enough cold air with potential systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Would be nice if this was right, but 2 days is forever in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 The wet and overcast New Year's Day this year marks the start of the long crappy New Year's weekend. Suicide weather tomorrow followed by more rain Sunday. Fifty shades of January 2020 on the horizon over the next 1-2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Happy New Year to all my fellow weather weenies. May 2021 be filled with fun weather and a lot less covid! Looking forward to springtime tornadoes already? Happy New Year! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Would be nice if this was right, but 2 days is forever in this pattern. I feel like this is the kind of storm that tends to overproduce in MI. I’d give myself a bun if I could. Edit: I didn’t see the earlier posts saying the same thing - makes me feel more confident! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 overperformer coming for IN/MI 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 5 hours ago, RobertSul said: Looking forward to springtime tornadoes already? Happy New Year! lol I never look forward to spring. Happy new year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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