SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 49 minutes ago, wncsnow said: If you think about it the GFS makes sense in the fact that Ninas love to pop a SE ridge in February historically. It's a battle between that and the -AO, NAO Doing the long range stuff down in the SE has pissed me off the last week. The GFS had a low of 9 in Atlanta this coming Sunday morning now we’re about 25° warmer. The tendency that we’ve been seeing is that at about day 7 to 10 the models have been verifying too cold in the SE but then they often windshield wiper and go too warm in the 4-7 day range. Places like South Carolina and Georgia the models went way too warm for tomorrow through Monday on their over correction. Those places will be wedged on Monday now. I’ve seen forecasts for ATL and GSP in the last 10 days for Monday 2/8 go from highs of 35 to 65 back to 48 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Doing the long range stuff down in the SE has pissed me off the last week. The GFS had a low of 9 in Atlanta this coming Sunday morning now we’re about 25° warmer. The tendency that we’ve been seeing is that at about day 7 to 10 the models have been verifying too cold in the SE but then they often windshield wiper and go too warm in the 4-7 day range. Places like South Carolina and Georgia the models went way too warm for tomorrow through Monday on their over correction. Those places will be wedged on Monday now. I’ve seen forecasts for ATL and GSP in the last 10 days for Monday 2/8 go from highs of 35 to 65 back to 48 Watching broadcast mets have to backtrack has been interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Watching broadcast mets have to backtrack has been interesting I think what’s happening is models are simply underplaying the SE ridge at day 7 and beyond as they have now for several winters, then they’re correcting but due to the -NAO the correction is being overdone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think what’s happening is models are simply underplaying the SE ridge at day 7 and beyond as they have now for several winters, then they’re correcting but due to the -NAO the correction is being overdone Not sure I like the sound of that down here in piedmont caroline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro already looking much slower with the cold push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro already looking much slower with the cold push Wrong direction on the Euro...big change from its previous run and mirrors the move that the other models made today 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro already looking much slower with the cold pushComparison to 0zSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: Wrong direction on the Euro...big change from its previous run and mirrors the move that the other models made today Yep, not liking where this is headed. The cold/storms keep getting delayed past day 7. Rain storm incoming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Doubt many people will like this euro run. sorry folks. we may be playing catchup again for the time being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The TPV gets monkied with up top. It'll roll out to another solution. Things placement are harder for models to predict than NAO out past 5 days. Not saying this might not be accurate, but it will keep shuffeling around good or bad. intrested to see EPS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 EURO and EPS folding to GFS and it’s ensembles for the 138th time this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Well, on the bright side it takes the ice all the way up into Pennsylvania with rain even in New Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I think @SnowGoose69 called it perfectly and the Euro is doing exactly what he noted with the models over-correcting to the SE ridge in the 4-7 day time period and we'll see it go back to a more reasonable solution in between the extremes over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just a sliiiiggghhttt difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Hate to say it, but we now have 6 days to reel this one back in. Knew it was too good to be even 1/100th true. That SE ridge just shuns the arctic air. Obviously still a ton of time for it to change but there are now very valid reason to believe we rain several times with places west of the apps going below zero. Gut punch today. So is life in the south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Watching broadcast mets have to backtrack has been interesting You should see how after bragging that there is no chance it will snow in DC for Super Bowl Sunday, tv Mets spent yesterday trying to explain how the models led them so far astray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Wow here we go again... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Doubt many people will like this euro run. sorry folks. we may be playing catchup again for the time being only to watch it trend back in the 3 day range? that seems to be a current trend anyway. lots of volatility, be glad it isnt the market lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Rules in the south: 1) arctic air is ALWAYS over modeled 2) arctic air is ALWAYS slower to arrive than modeled 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Hate to say it, but we now have 6 days to reel this one back in. Knew it was too good to be even 1/100th true. That SE ridge just shuns the arctic air. Obviously still a ton of time for it to change but there are now very valid reason to believe we rain several times with places west of the apps going below zero. Gut punch today. So is life in the south If the Euro is correct the cold never really comes at all the next 10 days. Instead we get the insult to injury of rain after rain after rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: If the Euro is correct the cold never really comes at all the next 10 days. Instead we get the insult to injury of rain after rain after rain And if that's the case , another win for the GFS Imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: And if that's the case , another win for the GFS Imo After this winter the Euro has been dethroned. I never remember it being as wishy washy inside day 6 as it was between 0z and 12z today in the past. Something about this pattern throws it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: If the Euro is correct the cold never really comes at all the next 10 days. Instead we get the insult to injury of rain after rain after rain Yep. The cold seemed like a certainty for days. We may not even get that lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I would hate to be a Meteorologist right now with the way the models are flip flopping in extreme manners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Major busts seem to have been in the 7+ day range. They've busted too warm in that range for the first 5-6 weeks of winter, and now they're busting too cold. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: If the Euro is correct the cold never really comes at all the next 10 days. Instead we get the insult to injury of rain after rain after rain It’ll get here at the end of March like it always does. Seriously though as has been said the cold holding back like this is not at all unusual. And it does usually get here eventually. It’s just torture after some of the runs this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Doing the long range stuff down in the SE has pissed me off the last week. The GFS had a low of 9 in Atlanta this coming Sunday morning now we’re about 25° warmer. The tendency that we’ve been seeing is that at about day 7 to 10 the models have been verifying too cold in the SE but then they often windshield wiper and go too warm in the 4-7 day range. Places like South Carolina and Georgia the models went way too warm for tomorrow through Monday on their over correction. Those places will be wedged on Monday now. I’ve seen forecasts for ATL and GSP in the last 10 days for Monday 2/8 go from highs of 35 to 65 back to 48 You may be on to something here. If so the behavior seems to be following suit with these latest runs. If there is some correction at the 4-day mark, back to an equilibrium of sorts I sense a 33 and rain for a lot of NC next weekend with perhaps a little ice/sleet to the north and western sections of NC and upstate SC. [w/snow in mtns of course] Been the theme here all winter. - "Look kids! Big Ben, Parliament!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The Euro does look like its trying for something past day 10 LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: I think @SnowGoose69 called it perfectly and the Euro is doing exactly what he noted with the models over-correcting to the SE ridge in the 4-7 day time period and we'll see it go back to a more reasonable solution in between the extremes over the coming days. Even the 12Z GEFS wasn’t that slow. I expect the EPS won’t be anywhere near as warm next Wednesday to Saturday as that Op Euro was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The Euro does look like its trying for something past day 10 LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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