BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yep , GFS goes from BOOM to DOOM, 6z really stinks for later next week , rain after rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Yep , GFS goes from BOOM to DOOM, 6z really stinks for later next week , rain after rain... Good thing it’s on an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 We really, really suck at snow if we get a 1043 high over Lake Superior with behemoth cold air, and working perfectly in tandem with a coastal Miller A, and end up with ice (Euro run) Having said that, the Euro was a good run and went in the direction we want to go. Much better than the UKMET EPS Mean brings the bulk of the precip thru earlier, on Friday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 From the NWS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, griteater said: We really, really suck at snow if we get a 1043 high over Lake Superior with behemoth cold air, and working perfectly in tandem with a coastal Miller A, and end up with ice (Euro run) Having said that, the Euro was a good run and went in the direction we want to go. Much better than the UKMET EPS Mean brings the bulk of the precip thru earlier, on Friday EPS was almost cold enough for snow to be the dominant ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Good thing it’s on an island. Either the GFS is a terrible model or we’re going to end up getting 2 rain storms along the east coast with a cold high in between during a big -AO / -NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 From the NWS: Awesome! Thanks for sharing! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Either the GFS is a terrible model or we’re going to end up getting 2 rain storms along the east coast with a cold high in between during a big -AO / -NAO They aren’t even borderline rains either. GFS has us (Raleigh) near 70 on Friday. In fact, it fails to ever break containment over the mountains with the arctic air. In one frame, it’s below 0 through West Virginia and above freezing in central NC. I’m siding with terrible model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I woke up and ran the 6z gfs, and my heart sank, but I was revitalized by the euro and it’s ensembles. Can’t stress enough how important it is for euro ens to be on our side. At this range Euro Ens. in terms of reliability is the current day lakers, and the gfs is the current day unranked UNC team. If that makes any sense (I need to phase out all these sports analogies) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, ILMRoss said: I woke up and ran the 6z gfs, and my heart sank, but I was revitalized by the euro and it’s ensembles. Can’t stress enough how important it is for euro ens to be on our side. At this range Euro Ens. in terms of reliability is the current day lakers, and the gfs is the current day unranked UNC team. If that makes any sense (I need to phase out all these sports analogies) The Euro/Euro ENS are the globetrotters. The GFS is the generals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The Euro/Euro ENS are the globetrotters. The GFS is the generals. There’s a lot of ways to skin this cat. Right now I would trust the euro ens to watch my cats and feed them on time, and I wouldn’t trust the gfs to do that. This will be my only other piece of anecdotal wishy washy analysis today. But feel like the gfs does this a lot (I think it had a few runs when it rammed dec 2018 up mid Atlantic to New England) where it runs storms way too far inland in the long range and gives us heart attacks, only for other models to soothe us. That’s where my thinking is right now and the gfs is not affecting my psyche. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The Euro/Euro ENS are the globetrotters. The GFS is the generals. I love to read both of your posts but I think Bull City got you by a nose with his analogy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: There’s a lot of ways to skin this cat. Right now I would trust the euro ens to watch my cats and feed them on time, and I wouldn’t trust the gfs to do that. This will be my only other piece of anecdotal wishy washy analysis today. But feel like the gfs does this a lot (I think it had a few runs when it rammed dec 2018 up mid Atlantic to New England) where it runs storms way too far inland in the long range and gives us heart attacks, only for other models to soothe us. That’s where my thinking is right now and the gfs is not affecting my psyche. I will be interested in the 12z suites for sure and look forward to everyone’s thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I woke up and ran the 6z gfs, and my heart sank, but I was revitalized by the euro and it’s ensembles. Can’t stress enough how important it is for euro ens to be on our side. At this range Euro Ens. in terms of reliability is the current day lakers, and the gfs is the current day unranked UNC team. If that makes any sense (I need to phase out all these sports analogies) Let’s just Hope this storm Doesn’t end up being Dennis Smith Jr or Ryan Leaf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Interesting local forecast on Wunderground for Wake County snow . Really shows the reloading going on next weekend: Thursday Night - 1" Friday 1-3" Friday Night - 1" Saturday - 0" Saturday Night - 0" Sunday - 1-3" Sunday Night - 1" Monday - 0" Monday Night - 1-3" Tuesday - 1-3" Tuesday Night - Flurries Whatever they use to generate their forecast is definitely seeing possibility after possibility in the 10 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I woke up and ran the 6z gfs, and my heart sank, but I was revitalized by the euro and it’s ensembles. Can’t stress enough how important it is for euro ens to be on our side. At this range Euro Ens. in terms of reliability is the current day lakers, and the gfs is the current day unranked UNC team. If that makes any sense (I need to phase out all these sports analogies) Poor Heels... as a Clemson alum and having won 3 of the last 4 over them, I think we can declare ourselves a better basketball school 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Whether accurate or not, this is special to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Whether accurate or not, this is special to see Let's just hope the GFS is out to lunch for next weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 34 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: There’s a lot of ways to skin this cat. Right now I would trust the euro ens to watch my cats and feed them on time, and I wouldn’t trust the gfs to do that. This will be my only other piece of anecdotal wishy washy analysis today. But feel like the gfs does this a lot (I think it had a few runs when it rammed dec 2018 up mid Atlantic to New England) where it runs storms way too far inland in the long range and gives us heart attacks, only for other models to soothe us. That’s where my thinking is right now and the gfs is not affecting my psyche. Agree, the GFS does tend to run storms north a lot in the long range...it's a complete flip of its bias from the old days where it would suppress storms so much. Here's the infamous GFS run that sent the storm to Cuba that ended up hitting central GA > SC > SE NC big in Feb 2010 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Not bothered by the gfs tropical 6z run either. I like to take what we've seen to date so far overall across the models. More frozen runs for NC than anything pure rain. 6z gfs went to lunch early today. Maybe it'll be back for the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CustomWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 FWIW, the Euro Parallel continues with its bullish runs. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, CustomWX said: FWIW, the Euro Parallel continues with its bullish runs. Well that's more like it...can you tell us the timing of the heavy snow? As in Friday or is it later? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I dont know if anyone noticed but the 6z EPS has precip in NC as soon as hour 144 with temps across much of the state at or below freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The EPS location of the TPV has been remarkably steady. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CustomWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, griteater said: Well that's more like it...can you tell us the timing of the heavy snow? As in Friday or is it later? Here's a gif showing the timeline: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Brad Panovich is bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Jaw dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Hoping for thunder tomorrow night to stamp it's approval for next weekend's beast! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 what on earth is the euro parallel. is it a beta thing? i swear sometimes with these new models i feel like im being punked 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now