btownheel Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Heck I hope most of the 1.5million in the Triangle get in on the sleet more so than the a crushing ice storm. A nice <.20 sleet-to-snow storm would be ok.>Honestly that would be incredibly cool to watch play out as long as we got the pinger shift before getting into lights out territory. It’s gonna be wayyyyy too cold for dealing with that crap. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Comparison here of the big 3 ensemble means at day 7... GEFS has the least amount of ridging in the PNW and W Canada...is the slowest to move the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV) lobe to the southeast and out of south-central Canada, and has the largest amount of SE ridging. GEPS is the other end of the spectrum with its stronger western ridging...more TPV movement out of Canada...less SE ridging EPS is in between My personal preference for the biggest hit across the forum would be in between the EPS and GEPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Checkout GSO obs from that storm. It mirrors Hickory pretty well. Once the precip changed over to SN and it started accumulating on the Ice, the trees just went down like flies. Then bitter cold for the next few days. https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/station_data?e=163&t=h&s=KGSO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The true Polar Vortex is completely shattered on the day 10 look from the Euro. It's broken off into several Lobes. Classic -AO look below. This bodes well for the rest of February IMO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Checkout GSO obs from that storm. It mirrors Hickory pretty well. Once the precip changed over to SN and it started accumulating on the Ice, the trees just went down like flies. Then bitter cold for the next few days. https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/station_data?e=163&t=h&s=KGSO I particularly like several entries of "unknown" p-type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 57 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Katie, bar the door! 20% chance of heavy snow, that includes the blue ridge and smokies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, griteater said: Comparison here of the big 3 ensemble means at day 7... GEFS has the least amount of ridging in the PNW and W Canada...is the slowest to move the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV) lobe to the southeast and out of south-central Canada, and has the largest amount of SE ridging. GEPS is the other end of the spectrum with its stronger western ridging...more TPV movement out of Canada...less SE ridging EPS is in between My personal preference for the biggest hit across the forum would be in between the EPS and GEPS The less SE ridging the better for me, but I'm assuming you're hoping a bit of one amps up the storm a touch for more precip? It just seems like we started down a path today we didn't want to go down. Canadian is really the only one left with the PV in a great spot. Hopefully overnight corrects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 18z GFS still has the storm late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS still has the storm late next week Dang it’s warm though. Mostly rain all of NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS still has the storm late next week Ha I don't think that's the version of the storm that anyone's looking for 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Still plenty of time for the storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 51 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: The less SE ridging the better for me, but I'm assuming you're hoping a bit of one amps up the storm a touch for more precip? It just seems like we started down a path today we didn't want to go down. Canadian is really the only one left with the PV in a great spot. Hopefully overnight corrects. Yeah, think the biggest thing is the timing where the TPV has to drop down and drag the high pressure in behind it (or with it) before we have our storm move in. Last night's Euro and a few of the GFS runs yesterday nailed it. Others like this GFS run are a big miss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 End result of this GFS run is almost identical to the storm that just hit the MA and NE. Almost exact same footprint. Warning signals are going off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 As long as the GFSENS hold, I couldnt care less what the OP says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Stupid cold on the GFS. Valentine’s Day highs across the SE struggle to break 20. Here’s morning of 2/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 the operational has some crazy daytime temperature solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: End result of this GFS run is almost identical to the storm that just hit the MA and NE. Almost exact same footprint. Warning signals are going off Will not miss this one. If that happens again, I will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Fantom X said: the operational has some crazy daytime temperature solutions If we rain and then get that kinda afterwards it’s going to be a kick in the groin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: As long as the GFSENS hold, I couldnt care less what the OP says. The GEFS has been following the op imo. EPS took a step to it today too I think. Disappointed with the trends today. Im not one who believes that trends reverse or once the storm is lost it'll come back. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Through 18z today there is no way to sugarcoat the trends from either the ops or the ensembles: they were not in our favor 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Through 18z today there is no way to sugarcoat the trends from either the ops or the ensembles: they were not in our favor If you’re talking about the GFS then you’re not wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Euro still looked fine and is a few minor tweaks from a major. Gfs sucks but is on an island compared to the euro, icon, and cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Euro still looked fine and is a few minor tweaks from a major. Gfs sucks but is on an island compared to the euro, icon, and cmc The euro would be the worst winter storm in the Carolinas in a generation. I can’t figure out why people are so down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Euro still looked fine and is a few minor tweaks from a major. Gfs sucks but is on an island compared to the euro, icon, and cmc Yesterday at 12z the euro had snow in savannah and today it had ice through North Carolina. Yes it trended better for a winter storm this run but it and it’s ensembles all trended faster and much more northwest and warmer. Would not take much to catch up to the GFS. It’s so early in the game it’s not panic time but another day of this is going to drive up my anxiety 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The GFS/Euro are actually in pretty good agreement when you compare them through day 8 or 9. There's not a huge difference from the standpoint of the Northern Hemispheric pattern aloft. The main issue is the anomalous nature of what they're showing and how it's not likely statistically. That's the main thing we have going against us. How often do 1050mb Highs enter the Dakotas on the backside of a sub 490dm PV lobe in the great lakes? However, the AO is in serious neg' territory, so that lends credit to this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Models are so erratic right now it’s best not to get emotionally invested. The trend for the upcoming weekend threat has been incredible. Still not confident in the outcome of that and it’s less than 72 hours out! At this rate won’t be surprised if it turns into an apps runner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CustomWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 12z Euro Parallel looks awesome! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The euro would be the worst winter storm in the Carolinas in a generation. I can’t figure out why people are so down. I would certainly lean Euro/EPS on getting the big picture right out in time given the heavy high latitude blocking pattern etc, regardless of what outcome it is showing for us. Not too worried about the current GFS unless the UKMET/Euro go in that direction. I think the changes with the weekend storm are a bit separate (smaller scale features that all of the models are struggling with driving storm track changes). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: Looks very similar to the 18z OP Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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