Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Holy sh*t at the Nam! @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment @BornAgain13 happy hour starting early today! For real. Looked like the 3k was going to be just as good if not better. Be interested to see what the rest of the 12Z suite looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: For real. Looked like the 3k was going to be just as good if not better. Be interested to see what the rest of the 12Z suite looks like. GFS looks juicy @69! Incoming shellacking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: For real. Looked like the 3k was going to be just as good if not better. Be interested to see what the rest of the 12Z suite looks like. Placement of the SLP tho at 72 on gfs looks a little wonky compared to 6z. 6z much closer to coastline but precip panels look even more NW than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Let's see what the Op Euro and UK says before getting too excited. They both have nothing right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Let's see what the Op Euro and UK says before getting too excited. They both have nothing right now 6Z euro made a big shift NW from its 0Z run. I expect it to be on board in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Ah, the siren song of the models are calling to us. “Come to me, child. See the NAM. Look at my GFS. Come bask in my wintry precip.” Don’t fall for it. She’ll only break your heart. 1 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Gfs para looks to be a juice bomb at 60 getting ready to turn nw as well @66 and @72 @BornAgain13 might not want to look could give you a heart attack. Just an absolute mauling. Very Nam’ish solid 6-10” event for NC mountains/southern va. Even some accumulation back into the NW triad. Haven’t looked at 850s or upstairs to see if it’s all snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Lol from hour 60 to 66 on the gfs it dumps over 6" on Wake county. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Gfs para looks to be a juice bomb at 60 getting ready to turn nw as well @66 and @72 @BornAgain13 might not want to look could give you a heart attack. Just an absolute mauling. Very Nam’ish Yeah that deserves a boom. Plastering from WNC up through VA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Cold push coming in quicker this runSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 GFS para 850s trend over the last 3 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 ICON also coming in with a similar track and getting the NW Piedmont in some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 @msuwx Care to weigh in on these trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, WXNewton said: GFS para 850s trend over the last 3 runs Two more adjustments like that and you'll all be traveling to Snowshoe WV for the Superbowl Party. This conversation around lack of upper air data due to Covid airline traffic reductions has me very intrigued. Has this been quantified anywhere? Did we lose 50%, 70% of our inputs? What is the likely downstream impact of that missing data on each model? Is one model more suspect to error now? I'd love to read any articles if anybody has one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: Two more adjustments like that and you'll all be traveling to Snowshoe WV for the Superbowl Party. This conversation around lack of upper air data due to Covid airline traffic reductions has me very intrigued. Has this been quantified anywhere? Did we lose 50%, 70% of our inputs? What is the likely downstream impact of that missing data on each model? Is one model more suspect to error now? I'd love to read any articles if anybody has one. I posted an article in the whine thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 One thing to maybe watch for is if we can get some wedging or at least some colder air bleeding in from NE. The GFS para showing a weak high over eastern PA as the moisture is coming in. This is the first time I've noticed that feature there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Para GFS has snow starting as soon as next thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 FV3 has the low way inland for next weekend, rockets out of here so no storm Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: FV3 has the low way inland for next weekend, rockets out of here so no storm Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk But of course! Was there any doubt? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Chuck said: But of course! Was there any doubt? I wouldn't get too worried this far out, I mean we are only 2 days a way from the weekend storm and models are still trying to figure it out. I really would be too concerned past day 3-4 at this point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: I posted an article in the whine thread Found it, many thanks! I would love to understand where we are with this issue today knowing flight schedules are still at a massive deficit vs pre-March 2020. The article stated that the used data points (reports) were down between 40-66% in March of 2020 and had the greatest impact on accuracy inside of 24 hours, but also degraded accuracy all the way out to 7 days. Highly directional assumption, but in an area prone to forecast busts over 2-3 degrees (southeast forum), this could certainly explain a lot. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Canadian for this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Canadian for this weekend It also shifted NW pretty bigly with the precip shield this run. Good trends for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Dont get too high or too low off OP runs right now. We're still in the ensemble forecasting range. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: FV3 has the low way inland for next weekend, rockets out of here so no storm Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Looks like to me low is crawling across the gulf and potential major winter storm with high locked in over top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 In wake county, during a period in which we were more or less guaranteed a below normal stretch with many Mets hinting at pure arctic air, our 850’s do not cool below freezing between Tuesday and and Saturday, February 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Found it, many thanks! I would love to understand where we are with this issue today knowing flight schedules are still at a massive deficit vs pre-March 2020. The article stated that the used data points (reports) were down between 40-66% in March of 2020 and had the greatest impact on accuracy inside of 24 hours, but also degraded accuracy all the way out to 7 days. Highly directional assumption, but in an area prone to forecast busts over 2-3 degrees (southeast forum), this could certainly explain a lot. Found this link dated 27 Oct 2020. It references the loss of airline data being as much as 90%. “One of the many unfortunate aspects of the COVID-19 crisis has been the severe loss – of up to 90% - of aircraft-derived meteorological data as a result of the steep decline in airline operations and passenger flights since March 2020,” said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas. WMO and IATA Agree to Improve Aircraft Meteorological Reporting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 For late next week, one key to the storm lies in what happens out west. The GFS moved toward dropping a trough along the West Canadian coast mid week, right at the time when we need ridging building in, and the storm is kicked out too soon before the cold high has a chance to move in. The new CMC has some ridging there instead, and has a storm along the coast next weekend...better timing, better result. Let's see what the Euro says 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, Chuck said: Found this link dated 27 Oct 2020. It references the loss of airline data being as much as 90%. “One of the many unfortunate aspects of the COVID-19 crisis has been the severe loss – of up to 90% - of aircraft-derived meteorological data as a result of the steep decline in airline operations and passenger flights since March 2020,” said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas. WMO and IATA Agree to Improve Aircraft Meteorological Reporting That's simply incredible. I would love to hear @msuwxMatthew's take on this. I'm sure it has been discussed by the red tag community. This would make an enormous difference in the accuracy of any forecast (temp, humidity, wind) leading up to an event. And it would affect all models. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 ^ Looks like the para is in between the GFS Reg and the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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