Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I absolutely love the enthusiasm in here but I just feel burned so many times I can’t really believe it until it gets much closer. I def agree with everyone that the big dogs are most def modeled further out than others. @BullCityWx @ILMRoss @burrel2 @eyewall if you guys want 30” and I can get a foot by all means let’s make a deal! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It would be the biggest event ever in every population center in the Carolinas except Charleston and maybe Wilmington.It would lock the entirety of the state down for 10 days. Hell, most of SC, VA and GA too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 45 minutes ago, griteater said: My mother is from South GA (Tifton). We have to work hard for our snow in the lowlands around here I know Tifton very well. Grew up in Moultrie right down the road. Was a little guy in 89 when they last got a good snow. Fingers crossed something big comes to fruition here in NC after that GFS teaser. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Winter model runs like this is what keeps bringing you back! It’s sort of like the one good shot you hit on the golf course. Lol! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Anything less than what the 18z GFS shows will be a let down lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I’m going to frame the 18z GFS weenie apocalypse snow map and put it in my man cave! Lol 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, btownheel said: It would lock the entirety of the state down for 10 days. Hell, most of SC, VA and GA too. . As long as we can stop wearing masks afterwards I'm down. Bring on the blizzard!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Whoa I go away for a couple days and then come back to that monster. Make it so! /Picard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Also folks , it's not like this is at Hr 384 on the GFS , we do have that going for us lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 FYI the 18z Euro (hr144 for 18z Tuesday, which was hr150 on 12z Euro) continues the trend of slowing the arctic front. Subtle difference, but easily seeable when cycling between the two runsSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshwx2003 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 One could dream but GFS likes to play with our emotions doesn’t it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Sat/Sunday is where its at boys. No need to wait 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 20 minutes ago, joshwx2003 said: One could dream but GFS likes to play with our emotions doesn’t it. Yeah and this map is not accurate because the snow ratios would be higher than 10:1 , temps would be in the 20s... but that's unnecessary details at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Sat/Sunday is where its at boys. No need to wait 10 days. Noticed a few ensemble members with this strip of snow across the deep south earlier today. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 27 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Sat/Sunday is where its at boys. No need to wait 10 days. Nice... So When does the NW trend start? Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Lol I’ve seen this before. The GFS, from 4 years ago today for roughly the same time frame as the monster run from this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 ICON had a developing event at the tail end of its run at hour 180. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, wake4est said: Lol I’ve seen this before. The GFS, from 4 years ago today for roughly the same time frame as the monster run from this afternoon. I don;t remember anything of note from Feb 2016 so I am guessing this disappeared into nothingness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, cbmclean said: I don;t remember anything of note from Feb 2016 so I am guessing this disappeared into nothingness. And so will next weekend, but sshhhhhh.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, wake4est said: Lol I’ve seen this before. The GFS, from 4 years ago today for roughly the same time frame as the monster run from this afternoon. That was a 336 without any support I recall from the other LR models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: ICON had a developing event at the tail end of its run at hour 180. Much better than it was looking at 12Z...nice improvement.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The NAM is trending towards a legitimate marginal overrunning event for this weekend. Not sure how much further NW it will go but it’s definitely trending NW the last three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatherNature Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, wake4est said: Lol I’ve seen this before. The GFS, from 4 years ago today for roughly the same time frame as the monster run from this afternoon. To be fair, this was hour 336 of that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Main difference between the 18z gfs and other fantasy runs is that it's *plausible*. Star of this show is a big high that has great Op and Ensemble support for 9 days out. Anything that runs into it, or underneath it, has the potential to be big. I think most people grasp that yeah, that run was a perfect storm, and future renditions will be less than perfect. 00z GFS could be very disappointing! But let's go ahead and stake out that this has more credence than your typical fantasyland snow dumper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, wake4est said: Lol I’ve seen this before. The GFS, from 4 years ago today for roughly the same time frame as the monster run from this afternoon. Yeah this was well beyond the 10 day range... the 18z GFS showed the storm starting day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Tim Buckley was asked on social media why the models have seemed to be more inaccurate this year. His response was interesting and I was unaware of this"Well, winter fake outs are nothing new - but the more you pay attention the more you get disappointed. A real issue this year though is that there are many fewer airplanes in the air due to COVID. Weather data from planes goes into feeding computer models with important observations, so their predictions have been more chaotic and less accurate than usual."Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z GFS Hr 78... Dadgum close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The 0z Para still has heavy snow for N NC , S VA on Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 0z GFS Para for Sunday Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: Tim Buckley was asked on social media why the models have seemed to be more inaccurate this year. His response was interesting and I was unaware of this "Well, winter fake outs are nothing new - but the more you pay attention the more you get disappointed. A real issue this year though is that there are many fewer airplanes in the air due to COVID. Weather data from planes goes into feeding computer models with important observations, so their predictions have been more chaotic and less accurate than usual." Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk he's totally right and even though i dont have charts offhand model verification scores did take a plunge right around early-mid march 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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