ILMRoss Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, downeastnc said: With a big high like that you got a better chance of a SE trend than a NW one.... not necessarily... just because a high is strong doesn't mean the synoptics producing it can't tick northward over a couple of cycles! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: not necessarily... just because a high is strong doesn't mean the synoptics producing it can't tick northward over a couple of cycles! ....hopefully the Euro does tick north some.....but overall you wouldnt think there is much risk of a NW trend with a 1050ishmb high building into the upper midwest..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 32 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Got to take notice when these two agree like this in this range.... Yep, gives it more believability at that range. Maybe this will hold in some varying shape, intensity or form over the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, downeastnc said: ....hopefully the Euro does tick north some.....but overall you wouldnt think there is much risk of a NW trend with a 1050ishmb high building into the upper midwest..... Still hard to believe a 1050 will be out there. I tend to believe the artic surge is coming and with a stout HP...but a 1050? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Still hard to believe a 1050 will be out there. I tend to believe the artic surge is coming and with a stout HP...but a 1050? Almost always HP seems to be over modeled at this range. Still, even if it lowers 10mb that’s still a stout high. I doubt 1050+ actually happens. I bet this trends north. I’ll take the cold look though. That’s pure arctic ice air floating around Canada and spilling into the lower 48, geeze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: Sure, there’s been plenty of reason to be pessimistic this winter but right now is not the time, imo. We know things can and do change drastically in the long range but it couldn't look any better at day 8-10 than what it does right now. If we can hold the general evolution of the block retrograding west and connecting with with west coast ridging then we are sitting pretty. The retrograding block that moves from Davis straits over to the southwest Canada and connects with ridging is probably the single best prog you can hope for to generate a storm in the south east. It hasn’t happened like this since 2010/2011(excluding non winter months) Yes, this is the key move. The AO and NAO are doing their job. It's the western pattern that is once again letting us down (the going theme this winter) as we can see here on the trend loop (1st image) where the above normal height anomalies along the west coast of North America have trended west during the timeframe of early next week - this leads to the SE ridge flexing. This coincides with a period when the Pacific jet is retracting (2nd image...i.e. retracting Pacific jet = retrograding height pattern along the West Coast). The good news is that the models are showing the jet extending after this retraction days 4-12...this would move the western ridging back east into Western North America. We'll have to see how that plays out in reality 5-10 days from now, but the Pacific jet extending & retracting are the foundation for the EPO and PNA patterns. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Don’t forget that surface pressures are a result of the strength and placement of upper level features and forcing. If those are modeled incorrectly, the surface pressures will not be correctly modeled. So the idea of some feature in the future either being able or not able to do something because of modeled high pressure strengths and locations is a bit of an inaccuracy. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 All I ask is one 3"+ event in Raleigh this year. I hope by some miracle this works out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, msuwx said: Don’t forget that surface pressures are a result of the strength and placement of upper level features and forcing. If those are modeled incorrectly, the surface pressures will not be correctly modeled. So the idea of some feature in the future either being able or not able to do something because of modeled high pressure strengths and locations is a bit of an inaccuracy. Thanks for the clarification Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 ICON still has the storm for Sunday for some reason lol , and it's a little colder than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Para still has Snow for NC on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS looks dam near beautiful next Sat on the happy hour GFS lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS looks dam near beautiful next Sat on the happy hour GFS lol Two runs in a row. Check please 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS looks dam near beautiful next Sat on the happy hour GFS lol Cant draw it up better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 18z GFS is a banger for the entire board. Let's reel this in. I get it, yeah, 9-10 days out, but usually you can begin to hear the big dogs barking at this range. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 My fellow weenies the 18z GFS comes in with another monster. Elizabeth I’m coming to see you 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Haha, oh my goodness... The entire state of NC over a foot with Kuchera ratios.... That may be the greatest SE winter storm of all time. Too bad it's so far out lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: Before I saw this clown map I was about to post that's one of the best modeled storms I've ever seen 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: Before I saw this clown map I was about to post that's one of the best modeled storms I've ever seen Looks like a very slow mover. Snows for over 24 hours straight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Before I saw this clown map I was about to post that's one of the best modeled storms I've ever seen I’ll gladly take a quarter of that run and call it a winter. You and I have been at this a long time and that might be an all time run. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: 18z GFS is a banger for the entire board. Let's reel this in. I get it, yeah, 9-10 days out, but usually you can begin to hear the big dogs barking at this range. And that is a big dog 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Before I saw this clown map I was about to post that's one of the best modeled storms I've ever seen Cant ask for anything more, that set up is spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I’ll gladly take a quarter of that run and call it a winter. That might be an all time run. Need to save this run for the archives. Agreed, might be the best I’ve ever seen 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 And that was literally the best fantasy model run I’ve ever seen. Got toe mighty! Whewww!!!! Lord have mercy 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 That was a run for the ages LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I’ll gladly take a quarter of that run and call it a winter. You and I have been at this a long time and that might be an all time run. Was just texting Shaggy that this might be best GFS run ever lol.......seriously looked about to smack the SE again at the end of the run too....closest run to Mar 1980 I have ever seen.....only better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, eyewall said: That was a run for the ages LOL You guys that have been doing this for a while need to temper the hopes of us weenies. Where can I buy my snow sled Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 It’s really critical that the Canadian vortex ejects East like the gfs/jma show. That allows room for amplification and phasing of the southern stream wave. Cold air doesn’t seem to be an issue so hopefully no worries rooting for the quick ejection. we can still score even if it evolves differently but that’s what we need for the storm of the century scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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