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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

And 0 threats on the Op Euro unless that mess to the south on day 10 gets organized 

It’s literally showing snow along I-20 on day 10. That’s a threat, lol. Maybe not for your backyard but clearly there’s a major storm signal around then.

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Dry for most of NC on Euro 

qpf_acc.us_ma (27).png

One could say they don’t trust the GFS but then after what the euro just did this weekend it’s a complete crapshoot IMO. Idk what to think anymore with this model mayhem. Unless it’s within 4 days it’s not credible anymore.

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Just now, burrel2 said:

It’s literally showing snow along I-20 on day 10. That’s a threat, lol. Maybe not for your backyard but clearly there’s a major storm signal around then.

We'll see the models are having a hard time right now with 5 to 7 day forecasts much less 8 to 10 days

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Sure, there’s been plenty of reason to be pessimistic this winter but right now is not the time, imo. We know things can and do change drastically in the long range but it  couldn't look any better at day 8-10 than what it does right now.  If we can hold the general evolution of  the block retrograding west and connecting with with west coast ridging then we are sitting pretty. The retrograding block that moves from Davis straits over to the southwest Canada and connects with ridging is probably the single best prog you can hope for to generate a storm in the south east. It hasn’t happened like this since 2010/2011(excluding non winter months)

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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Sure, there’s been plenty of reason to be pessimistic this winter but right now is not the time, imo. We know things can and do change drastically in the long range but it  couldn't look any better at day 8-10 than what it does right now.  If we can hold the general evolution of  the block retrograding west and connecting with with west coast ridging then we are sitting pretty. The retrograding block that moves from Davis straits over to the southwest Canada and connects with ridging is probably the single best prog you can hope for to generate a storm in the south east. It hasn’t happened like this since 2010/2011(excluding non winter months)

The reason for the pessimism is because once we get another day or 2 from now , it will continue to be an "8-10" day threat... thats why folks are on the edge

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The good things about the current 8-10 day threat, imo.

based off the model evolutions... if anything we need to Canadian vortex to kick east quicker than what the euro shows. It hangs out over the Great Lakes for a while and makes it difficult for the energy ejecting in the southern stream to get out of the deep gulf. As a result of this look we have plenty of room to work with on temperatures... If it plays out like typical I expect the Canadian vortex to trend weaker and eject East faster, which should allow for more southern stream amplification. But with the orientation of the ridging if it does trend that way we should have a perfectly located mega high pressure in damming position with very cold dry air in place. To be clear, a quicker ejecting vortex would typically mean retreating cold air... but in this case it’ll mean a better high pressure placement while still having arctic sourced air, so it may be a good thing. (Also of note the vortex is ejecting in a south eastward trajectory thanks to the blocking which really is what makes this set up so good,  if it just pushed northeast back towards the pole it would mean a more typical crummy set up).
 

as such, the goal post are very wide right now for a winter storm in that timeframe. I worry more about suppression right now... and if the last weeks trends are any indication we will probably see things shift north and more relaxed, placing us right in the crosshairs of a major winter storm.

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FYI, the 192hr jma panel looks incredible. Snow breaking kit in Ark/Texas/la region with a low forming in the deep gulf and plenty of room to amplify as it shifts East and a sprawling high pressure building in to prefect position. It’s honestly about the perfect map and you couldn’t draw it up much better. 

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12 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

FYI, the 192hr jma panel looks incredible. Snow breaking kit in Ark/Texas/la region with a low forming in the deep gulf and plenty of room to amplify as it shifts East and a sprawling high pressure building in to prefect position. It’s honestly about the perfect map and you couldn’t draw it up much better. 

Yes sir, not sure I've seen one of those modeled in a long time.

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59 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The reason for the pessimism is because once we get another day or 2 from now , it will continue to be an "8-10" day threat... thats why folks are on the edge

Can’t go much longer with the 8-10 day range threats staying that far out. We’re literally running out of winter unless we want to add sun angle and poor climatology to the list of factors working against us. Has the now or never feel this time

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