NorthHillsWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, burrel2 said: If we don’t score with the retrograding block and coldest air in the northern hemisphere trapped under it for a week or longer then I give up! You literally can not dream of a better situation than this. Those on this board with expertise in pattern recognition have been honing in on this time period for weeks. To see it show up on modeling is pretty awesome. Hopefully we can score. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 My favorite analogy for patterns like this is the hockey powerplay analogy- For the unaware, penalties in hockey result in the fouling team losing a player for 2 minutes, so the other team has a 5-4 personnel advantage. They have a "powerplay". You can think of these like mildly favorable, cool patterns. We're more likely to score, but it's not guaranteed. Super-cold, active patterns like this are like 5-3 powerplays, where a fouling team loses 2 players for 2 minutes. It increases the ability for the powerplay team to score a lot, but in the abstract, there's still a better chance that you don't score than the other way around. Just the way it is living in the south! 5 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 ^Just to stretch the analogy, we need it to be a double power play 5 on 3, because of major penalties so we can score as many goals in that time and keep the advantage on the ice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Goals: La Nina (1) - 2:09 Short handed goal (unassisted) La Nina (2) - 2:14 Short handed goal (unassisted) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Two of my favorite things hockey and weather tracking, Somebody make a cheese burger analogy and it's a perfect day 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 New GFS at 18z has quite an impressive look to the storm on Sunday. Hmmm. To warm and not wet enough though. Trend was good, except temperature :+). Another cold rain on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 18z GFS so close for Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 We went from potentially record cold to a POSITIVE TEMP ANOMALY on Monday.. Can't make this up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, ILMRoss said: My favorite analogy for patterns like this is the hockey powerplay analogy- I like your analogy. Unfortunately, we live in a part of the country with the powerplay strength of the Minnesota Wild. @frazdaddy will get what I’m saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Man , the GFS Stinks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Man , the GFS Stinks!! And so it begins .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Anybody with access to euro control/ensembles from 12z? Interested to know how they looked for both threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 hours ago, benjammin said: ^Just to stretch the analogy, we need it to be a double power play 5 on 3, because of major penalties so we can score as many goals in that time and keep the advantage on the ice as well. Maybe if the other team forgets to show altogether we can score? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 This is the discussion thread not the whining thread come on now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This is the discussion thread not the whining thread come on now. Yep but I don't hardly ever whine on here , so I had to do it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It's funny how Brad P (who I love) rips people apart (mostly on Twitter) for posting/believing in fantasy snow maps, but he's been hyping this potentially-fantasy "arctic blast" for a few days now". Posted the potential for single digit temps at CLT less than 48 hours ago. We might not be below freezing with these trends! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowDeac said: It's funny how Brad P (who I love) rips people apart (mostly on Twitter) for posting/believing in fantasy snow maps, but he's been hyping this potentially-fantasy "arctic blast" for a few days now". Posted the potential for single digit temps at CLT less than 48 hours ago. We might not be below freezing with these trends! Brad P. is the same met who claimed to have a 51 mph wind gust at his house a few weeks ago until a guy on Twitter pointed out to Brad that he had his weather station set to km/h. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Models are like politicians they flip flop. Hold tight snow and cold will be here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said: Brad P. is the same met who claimed to have a 51 mph wind gust at his house a few weeks ago until a guy on Twitter pointed out to Brad that he had his weather station set to km/h. Lol.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, HKY1894 said: Anybody with access to euro control/ensembles from 12z? Interested to know how they looked for both threats 12z Euro Control for this weekend has the low tracking into E SC / E NC with a little snow or wintry mix at onset in NW portions of the forum. It has a light wintry event across N SC and most of NC (more in NE NC) on Thu the 11th, then a moderate wintry event across parts of TN/NGA/NW SC/W-C NC on Sun the 14th Here is EPS Member Snow for the full run thru Feb 17th: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12z Euro Control for this weekend has the low tracking into E SC / E NC with a little snow or wintry mix at onset in NW portions of the forum. It has a light wintry event across N SC and most of NC (more in NE NC) on Thu the 11th, then a moderate wintry event across parts of TN/NGA/NW SC/W-C NC on Sun the 14th Here is EPS Member Snow for the full run thru Feb 17th: Not as good as I thought it might be. Wonder why we aren't seeing bigger storms show up yet. Too much northern stream? No subtropical jet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 this is ridiculous . I thought for sure we would score this weekend or next midweek. Mercy, I give up. northeast gets 30 inches and I can't get but a half inch every time we have potential. yep where did the epic cold go. met said the other day if we get any moisture it would be snow because of the cold and now maybe just plain old temps in the upper 30's. Mercy t 't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 It's funny how Brad P (who I love) rips people apart (mostly on Twitter) for posting/believing in fantasy snow maps, but he's been hyping this potentially-fantasy "arctic blast" for a few days now". Posted the potential for single digit temps at CLT less than 48 hours ago. We might not be below freezing with these trends!I know this is the discussion thread but I was thinking the same thing then saw your post! Good job !! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Not as good as I thought it might be. Wonder why we aren't seeing bigger storms show up yet. Too much northern stream? No subtropical jet? Think we just have to sit tight and wait it out / see where this goes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 hours ago, SnowDawg said: Trying to understand what differences turned the cold blast into a cold brush at hours where I expected a bit more consistency from the models lol. Does this baja low on the 12z yesterday contribute to the higher heights in the western US, and thus forcing the cold further south? That feature is cometely gone today. It looks like it's just a matter of the amplitude, location, and orientation of the ridge that goes up into Alaska. The UKMet has -32 deg F in Iowa at the end of its run at hr144 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, griteater said: It looks like it's just a matter of the amplitude, location, and orientation of the ridge that goes up into Alaska. The UKMet has -32 deg F in Iowa at the end of its run at hr144 And that for a model with a known warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Euro control at 18z: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Question: Isn't the 'Mean' a better reflector than the Control run... or does it depend? Wasn't sure so thought I would pose that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I would take that control run for Sunday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: And that for a model with a known warm bias. Yes, but a 30degree low for Monday night at rdu is not much to write home about in early Feb..Not when supposed bitter cold was recently being forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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