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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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31 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

A rain to snow changeover as cold air surges in...  not really showing any accumulations.

4-6 across the area. And temps afterwards are extremely cold for multiple days. Snow would be around a while. Perfect setup on the 12z. And looking at the H5 maps, it was close to a monster 

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17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There is nothing to complain about with that system other than the fact it’s more than a week out 

I may have to add this as a tagline quote to my profile.  You could literally type this into any winter thread from Dec 1st to March 15th and be accurate.  

This year we can't even be certain 24 hours out.  And there are a few posters here that are so badly jinxed they couldn't get snow sitting under a polar vortex with snow guns pointed at their front yard.  Somebody would still forget to turn on the water.  :lol:

I'll retreat to the whining thread again.  :(

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4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I may have to add this as a tagline quote to my profile.  You could literally type this into any winter thread from Dec 1st to March 15th and be accurate.  

This year we can't even be certain 24 hours out.  And there are a few posters here that are so badly jinxed they couldn't get snow sitting under a polar vortex with snow guns pointed at their front yard.  Somebody would still forget to turn on the water.  :lol:

I'll retreat to the whining thread again.  :(

It’s like The NC State fans of Weather .... (I’m an Nc State fan I can say this) lol

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29 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I may have to add this as a tagline quote to my profile.  You could literally type this into any winter thread from Dec 1st to March 15th and be accurate.  

This year we can't even be certain 24 hours out.  And there are a few posters here that are so badly jinxed they couldn't get snow sitting under a polar vortex with snow guns pointed at their front yard.  Somebody would still forget to turn on the water.  :lol:

I'll retreat to the whining thread again.  :(

At least give me credit for the quote! 

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No way to hide it, this is a promising look on the GFS Ensemble Mean.

Blocking ridge goes up into Greenland...then as it retrogrades southwest into north-central Canada, the westerly flow picks up off the west coast and a split flow wave emerges into California and the 4 corners, and is poised to track west to east underneath the trapped, cold, tropospheric polar vortex lobe over SE Canada

Feb-2-SE-Setup.gif

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6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro is super close to a good storm here Saturday night. Just barely too warm 

Yeah at hr 114 that low is in a good spot tracking across the gulf coast. You would think with a track similar to this our area would be closer to getting a good storm. I think there's some room for this to trend better for us.

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Trying to understand what differences turned the cold blast into a cold brush at hours where I expected a bit more consistency from the models lol.

Does this baja low on the 12z yesterday contribute to the higher heights in the western US, and thus forcing the cold further south?21CDAE56-CF18-400D-8247-7955C42DC98B.thumb.png.e2465dcab2aff541e32318eba8b70666.png

That feature is cometely gone today.EF171451-7568-4096-97CD-6EABADA00B4B.thumb.png.5a06aaac5f81ac2c81e55eb36cd1f2ed.png

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Bottom line seems to be this..... the active storm track will continue, and there will be lots of cold air involved in the pattern across eastern North America. 

For the Carolinas/ Virginia, there seems to be 3 impulses to monitor in the active storm track. 

1) Late Saturday/ early Sunday

2) Tuesday-ish (that was the big storm on the Euro on yesterday's runs)

3) Late next work week.

 

I fully believe any of those are fair game to amplify in the 'right' way to give some on this forum some fun and games. All of them probably won't, but any of the 3 are possibilities. And this is the classic case of it probably taking til the 11th hour to get the right idea as to the amount of interaction/ phasing each one will have. 

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