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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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I had a feeling that "historic" cold for Monday was too far out.   GFS still has us below normal, but nothing historic at all.  High temps above freezing.  
I don't have access to Euro for comparison.

Agreed haha ive seen so many “historic” cold blasts on 7+ day guidance get whittled down to less impressive cold over the years that it doesn’t even register with me anymore. It’s a complete blind spot. It’s almost always a a lock to not verify.
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59 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:


Agreed haha ive seen so many “historic” cold blasts on 7+ day guidance get whittled down to less impressive cold over the years that it doesn’t even register with me anymore. It’s a complete blind spot. It’s almost always a a lock to not verify.

In my humble opinion, this isn’t a bad thing if we want snow. I know these super cold blasts usually mean suppression city. It’s not like the cold disappears from the guidance either, it just doesn’t bleed into our region to the extent it did in some previous runs. It doesn’t need to be 20 degrees to snow. It still shows a prolonged period of below normal temps and an extremely active southern jet. I think we are in as good a spot as we can get starting early next week going out through the following week at least, 

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In my humble opinion, this isn’t a bad thing if we want snow. I know these super cold blasts usually mean suppression city. It’s not like the cold disappears from the guidance either, it just doesn’t bleed into our region to the extent it did in some previous runs. It doesn’t need to be 20 degrees to snow. It still shows a prolonged period of below normal temps and an extremely active southern jet. I think we are in as good a spot as we can get starting early next week going out through the following week at least, 

I agree but if you want snow that sticks and is actually fun to go out and play in, you need colder temperatures.  The last 2 snows I've had (last week and February 2020) were snow falling with surface temperatures around 34 and it stuck, but it was so wet and sloppy and disappeared in 4-5 hours.  
I know that falling snow and snow accumulation can help moderate surface temps, but highs in the mid to upper 30s isn't going to cut it.

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1 hour ago, ILMRoss said:


Agreed haha ive seen so many “historic” cold blasts on 7+ day guidance get whittled down to less impressive cold over the years that it doesn’t even register with me anymore. It’s a complete blind spot. It’s almost always a a lock to not verify.

My theory on that is it has a lot to do with snow cover. The snow never materialized, which makes 5-10 degrees difference. And add another 5 degrees for the models overdoing the effect of snow cover and you get a pretty good swing. On top of that I think the models often don't key in on how much the airmass moderates crossing the mountains. 

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16 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

42% U.S. snow coverage this morning.  Little surprised it isn't higher, especially across the northern Rockies and high plains.  However, good coverage in the east should aid in arctic air transport next week.

nsm_depth_2021020205_National.jpg

This is certainly not accurate for most of NC and the southern tier of VA.  That snow got washed away and melted shortly after impact.  Maybe a few piles left around in the NC snow capital of Roxboro, but that will be gone by today/tomorrow too.

Bring on the polar vortex and let it all freeze solid.  Then catch a southern slider or Miller A on the retreat.  That way everything is frozen and we get maximum accums.  

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4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Right I see that.  But 6 hours prior, temps are borderline (for Wake).  The system is gone 6 hours later.  So we are looking at a quick hit of less than 6 hours of snow potential.  The model doesn't show any accumulations for those time periods unless something went wrong with it.

The model shows 4+ inches from Durham county - east. I don't know what you're looking at.

image.png

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

That's odd.  The tropical tidbits page doesn't show that at all.  Good stuff.

tT runs behind update snowfall totals. Check your hours when you click to total snowfall. This also has some freezing rain on the front in south of RDU 

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