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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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54 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I remember back in '09/'10, all the models kept showing SE snowstorms, feet and feet, then they trended into DC snowstorms. I want to see a south Alabama to Savannah snowstorm to feel good in Raleigh.

Personally I want that storm to not trend to Raleigh (I live in Savannah) but I understand your point lol

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51 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I remember back in '09/'10, all the models kept showing SE snowstorms, feet and feet, then they trended into DC snowstorms. I want to see a south Alabama to Savannah snowstorm to feel good in Raleigh.

I had 9” imby (Columbia) back in Feb. of ‘10. That was, and still is, the only snow I knew was coming ten days away. The only uncertainty was how much moisture was going to fall. That’s the most snow I’ve ever seen in sc and it was all melted before noon the next day :lol: 

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10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The winter of 09/10 was the best winter here since the late 80s. We also had these storms 

 

Agreed from North GA. 09/10 and 10/11 back to back are the best winters we've seen in 30 plus years, discounting the monster at the end of 93 of course. 

E8A7504C-F76E-4942-B4C5-15227A719271.thumb.png.8fc2b51f220cbf428ca97552ea5a11ce.png7B205403-F16B-4F82-8991-67CB2BC4113A.thumb.png.9cd1f9c84425080cef5c9b814a3736d1.png

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Agreed from North GA. 09/10 and 10/11 back to back are the best winters we've seen in 30 plus years, discounting the monster at the end of 93 of course. 
E8A7504C-F76E-4942-B4C5-15227A719271.thumb.png.8fc2b51f220cbf428ca97552ea5a11ce.png7B205403-F16B-4F82-8991-67CB2BC4113A.thumb.png.9cd1f9c84425080cef5c9b814a3736d1.png

That is what spoiled me. Moved here in 2004, running from hurricanes, and got all of that snow.....

Then the last few years hit ... REALITY SUCKS.



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6 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Looks disorganized to me . Lots of time to get better 

Thats the way this entire winter thus far feels....disorganized.  Seems like we are getting bits and pieces of what we need, sloppy seconds and mediocre HP placement at best.  When this pattern finally does come together, I hope all the pieces turn in our favor.  Boom or bust the next 6 week folks.

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1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I had 9” imby (Columbia) back in Feb. of ‘10. That was, and still is, the only snow I knew was coming ten days away. The only uncertainty was how much moisture was going to fall. That’s the most snow I’ve ever seen in sc and it was all melted before noon the next day :lol: 

I just saw the pics you sent me too the other day and I cant find them unless they were on my FB Page.  Those were cool with the snow on the palm trees there

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1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I had 9” imby (Columbia) back in Feb. of ‘10. That was, and still is, the only snow I knew was coming ten days away. The only uncertainty was how much moisture was going to fall. That’s the most snow I’ve ever seen in sc and it was all melted before noon the next day :lol: 

I remember driving down that day to see my ex. I got there and stopped at the fresh market at Trenholm Plaza. It was just starting to snow so I was okay.

 

everybody else wasn’t. I’ve never seen such panic.  

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Just now, griteater said:

Super Bowl weekend to Daytona 500 weekend (ha), 2 storm chances during that period, that should be our realistic goal.  Let the chips fall where they may.  Doesn't look as good after that, but the long range modeled default of a SE ridge hasn't really materialized thus far thru winter

There’s been a few Daytona 500 snowstorms. 

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52 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Signal 

E1600AFE-7A6B-4755-987D-4637017E2214.png

i'm not too enthused on superbowl sunday. based on where this longwave trough is looking to set up, I don't see things coming far enough south/east for us for this thing not to be a cutter, in whatever form it is (dry arctic front still on the table). I think that at least in the medium term, a better look is saturday and some of the little waves running ahead of the trough... they're suppressed now, but these features inching their way NW through different model suites seem to be in the same tier as death and taxes. 

On a different note, whatever is showing up around the 200 hr mark is a classic signal, and probably what i'm most excited for.

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1 hour ago, ILMRoss said:

i'm not too enthused on superbowl sunday. based on where this longwave trough is looking to set up, I don't see things coming far enough south/east for us for this thing not to be a cutter, in whatever form it is (dry arctic front still on the table). I think that at least in the medium term, a better look is saturday and some of the little waves running ahead of the trough... they're suppressed now, but these features inching their way NW through different model suites seem to be in the same tier as death and taxes. 

On a different note, whatever is showing up around the 200 hr mark is a classic signal, and probably what i'm most excited for.

Agreed, not overly impressed with this weekend's look just yet though there is still time. However, next week definitely has a good look if it holds true. 

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Does anybody know anything about Pow weather? Saw a interesting YouTube video about how favorable the MJO is going to be the 2nd week of February. I don’t know anything about him but his videos on YouTube . Any opinions on MJO? I’m reading up but truly do not understand it.

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Here are the 850mb temperature anomaly charts for Feb 4 to Feb 13 on the 18z GEFS.  Nice move here of the ridge going up west of Greenland (warmth), then sagging south into Hudson Bay, adding suppression into the flow underneath, with the cold fanning out across the country.  We will still need plenty of suppression added in the flow with the PNA being slightly negative.  NAO index chart is impressive (bottom image).

 

Feb-1-GEFS-18-T.gif

Feb-1-PNA.png

 

Feb-1-NAO.png

 

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

Here are the 850mb temperature anomaly charts for Feb 4 to Feb 13 on the 18z GEFS.  Nice move here of the ridge going up west of Greenland (warmth), then sagging south into Hudson Bay, adding suppression into the flow underneath, with the cold fanning out across the country.  We will still need plenty of suppression added in the flow with the PNA being slightly negative.  NAO index chart is impressive (bottom image).

 

Feb-1-GEFS-18-T.gif

Feb-1-PNA.png

 

Feb-1-NAO.png

 

With the PNA possibly being an issue and the super negative NAO, do you think ice could be a higher than normal threat with CAD? 

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