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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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38 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

My son lives in Purcellville Va. (8 to 12) might be a good weekend to go see my new granddaughter.

Nice, I moved here from Leesburg.  I love that town and area. It is always good for the big storms too.  Just enough elevation and far enough away from I 95 and the heat island of DC. 

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Just now, CentralNC said:

So GSP gives Statesville/Mooresville a WSW but Davie county (right beside of me), nothing.  Interesting.  And I don't mean nothing falling, just not watches or any kind.  I know they will change that tomorrow, but kinda strange.

Isn’t Davie served by RAH? RAH almost always issues watched after GSP and Blacksburg.

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3 minutes ago, Avdave said:

Nice, I moved here from Leesburg.  I love that town and area. It is always good for the big storms too.  Just enough elevation and far enough away from I 95 and the heat island of DC. 

We sold the farm up there but our son moved back for work. Amazing climo and beautiful land but $$$$

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Just now, frazdaddy said:

We sold the farm up there but our son moved back for work. Amazing climo and beautiful land but $$$$

Yeah western Loudoun is beautiful. Loved being close to the AT and Harpers Ferry and western Md and well you get the idea lol. 

It is an expensive area though thats for sure and the commuting costs were crazy with me working in Crystal City and my wife in Tyson's

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26 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

So GSP gives Statesville/Mooresville a WSW but Davie county (right beside of me), nothing.  Interesting.  And I don't mean nothing falling, just not watches or any kind.  I know they will change that tomorrow, but kinda strange.

They referenced Davie in their discussion:

Quote

The question, as always, how much cold air will be associated with
this system. The air mass ahead of this system is relatively cold
and a strong in situ CAD does set up by Sunday morning. A strong
warm nose develops with a strong H85 southerly flow, WAA, and
isentropic lift pattern. This is seen in the partial thickness and
forecast soundings. P-type looks to be typical for a Miller B type
system. Precip starts out as snow/sleet as moisture and evaporative
cooling cools profiles to the wet bulb temps. Precip changes over to
freezing rain/rain from south to north as the warm nose kicks in.
Freezing rain/rain will last longest along and near the Blue Ridge
where the cold surface air can hold on the longest. For now, it
looks like the higher combination of p-types will be over the
counties along the Blue Ridge escarpment and east along the I-40
corridor to Iredell County. In general 2 to 4 inches of a snow/sleet
mix will combine with around a tenth of an inch of ice over these
areas. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for these areas. Expect
lesser amounts of a wintry mix over the rest of the NC mountains and
NC Southern Piedmont north to Rowan and Davie Counties. Expect an
Advisory will be needed for much of this area. It is still uncertain
how much of a mix will fall over the NE GA and Upstate mountains. It
is possible an Advisory will be needed there as well. Can`t rule out
a mix at onset south of these areas, but for now, any accumulation
would be very light with precip quickly changing over to rain. Of
course, even a small chance in temps surface or aloft would change
the expected p-types and associated amounts.

 

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5 minutes ago, Avdave said:

Yeah western Loudoun is beautiful. Loved being close to the AT and Harpers Ferry and western Md and well you get the idea lol. 

It is an expensive area though thats for sure and the commuting costs were crazy with me working in Crystal City and my wife in Tyson's

Western Loudoun is another world from DC/Arlington, even Sterling. The altitude, wide open spaces, and views are incredible! Its microclimate makes it the place to be for snow and cooler summers in metro DC.   I wonder how long the western Loudoun development restrictions will hold.

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3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Wow, they went all in too.  6" plus some ice!  Dont think that will resonate across the foothills.  For example, my farm is at 1,400' elevation in Patrick County but Meadows of Dan on the opposite side of the county is over 3,000'.  Literally 15 miles difference.  Tough to forecast this area with "catch-all" language.

Have you ever wondered why Patrick County for years was the first county to call off school at the first hint of winter weather?   The reason dates back to the late 70s. I was teaching in Floyd County VA at the time. Patrick County Schools had a brand spanking new Superintendent.  Evidently he was one of those guys who knows it all and isn’t particularly open to advice. He was down in Stewart of course at the low end of the county when a marginal winter storm came through.  It was rain in Stewart but a few miles up the mountain a raging ice storm was ongoing.

When his people called him in the early AM to tell him school needed to be cancelled he told then they must be crazy because he had just come in from checking the weather and all it was doing was raining.  They tried to tell him what was going on up on the mountain but he would not be swayed, so off the buses went.  Over 20 buses ended up off the side of the roads in various places. It was pure luck that no one was injured or worse.  The roads up on the mountain were so slippery that many of the parents who went out with their four wheel drive vehicles to rescue their kids also ended up in ditches.  

The next school board meeting made local TV News because the Superintendent was almost lynched by angry parents.  For years afterward if there was even a mention of possible winter weather you could expect to see...PATRICK COUNtY SCHOOLS CLOSED FOR TEACHERS AND STUDENTS....do the slow crawl across the bottom of your TV screen.

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9 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I remember when KVegas was an optimist 

2020 man, what can I say.  It creeped into my weather outlook.  :lol:

Seriously though, we've been burned so many times in just the last couple of years that most of us dont even know which model(s) to trust anymore.  Its not as much not being an optimist as it is just being gunshy.  I hate cliffdiving.

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