Avdave Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 38 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: My son lives in Purcellville Va. (8 to 12) might be a good weekend to go see my new granddaughter. Nice, I moved here from Leesburg. I love that town and area. It is always good for the big storms too. Just enough elevation and far enough away from I 95 and the heat island of DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Tim Buckley just said Triad could see “snow showers” tomorrow evening that at least Coats ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 So GSP gives Statesville/Mooresville a WSW but Davie county (right beside of me), nothing. Interesting. And I don't mean nothing falling, just not watches or any kind. I know they will change that tomorrow, but kinda strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Thread launched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Tim Buckley just says Triad could see “snow showers” tomorrow evening that at least coat ground. That's the beginning finger of snow that moves through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CentralNC said: So GSP gives Statesville/Mooresville a WSW but Davie county (right beside of me), nothing. Interesting. And I don't mean nothing falling, just not watches or any kind. I know they will change that tomorrow, but kinda strange. Isn’t Davie served by RAH? RAH almost always issues watched after GSP and Blacksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Avdave said: Nice, I moved here from Leesburg. I love that town and area. It is always good for the big storms too. Just enough elevation and far enough away from I 95 and the heat island of DC. We sold the farm up there but our son moved back for work. Amazing climo and beautiful land but $$$$ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, frazdaddy said: We sold the farm up there but our son moved back for work. Amazing climo and beautiful land but $$$$ Yeah western Loudoun is beautiful. Loved being close to the AT and Harpers Ferry and western Md and well you get the idea lol. It is an expensive area though thats for sure and the commuting costs were crazy with me working in Crystal City and my wife in Tyson's 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Isn’t Davie served by RAH? RAH almost always issues watched after GSP and Blacksburg. Nope, GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 A thread was started for the Miller B this weekend: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54449-jan-31st-cad-event/ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 21 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Isn’t Davie served by RAH? RAH almost always issues watched after GSP and Blacksburg. Nope, Davie is in GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 26 minutes ago, CentralNC said: So GSP gives Statesville/Mooresville a WSW but Davie county (right beside of me), nothing. Interesting. And I don't mean nothing falling, just not watches or any kind. I know they will change that tomorrow, but kinda strange. They referenced Davie in their discussion: Quote The question, as always, how much cold air will be associated with this system. The air mass ahead of this system is relatively cold and a strong in situ CAD does set up by Sunday morning. A strong warm nose develops with a strong H85 southerly flow, WAA, and isentropic lift pattern. This is seen in the partial thickness and forecast soundings. P-type looks to be typical for a Miller B type system. Precip starts out as snow/sleet as moisture and evaporative cooling cools profiles to the wet bulb temps. Precip changes over to freezing rain/rain from south to north as the warm nose kicks in. Freezing rain/rain will last longest along and near the Blue Ridge where the cold surface air can hold on the longest. For now, it looks like the higher combination of p-types will be over the counties along the Blue Ridge escarpment and east along the I-40 corridor to Iredell County. In general 2 to 4 inches of a snow/sleet mix will combine with around a tenth of an inch of ice over these areas. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for these areas. Expect lesser amounts of a wintry mix over the rest of the NC mountains and NC Southern Piedmont north to Rowan and Davie Counties. Expect an Advisory will be needed for much of this area. It is still uncertain how much of a mix will fall over the NE GA and Upstate mountains. It is possible an Advisory will be needed there as well. Can`t rule out a mix at onset south of these areas, but for now, any accumulation would be very light with precip quickly changing over to rain. Of course, even a small chance in temps surface or aloft would change the expected p-types and associated amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Avdave said: Yeah western Loudoun is beautiful. Loved being close to the AT and Harpers Ferry and western Md and well you get the idea lol. It is an expensive area though thats for sure and the commuting costs were crazy with me working in Crystal City and my wife in Tyson's Western Loudoun is another world from DC/Arlington, even Sterling. The altitude, wide open spaces, and views are incredible! Its microclimate makes it the place to be for snow and cooler summers in metro DC. I wonder how long the western Loudoun development restrictions will hold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Wow, they went all in too. 6" plus some ice! Dont think that will resonate across the foothills. For example, my farm is at 1,400' elevation in Patrick County but Meadows of Dan on the opposite side of the county is over 3,000'. Literally 15 miles difference. Tough to forecast this area with "catch-all" language. Have you ever wondered why Patrick County for years was the first county to call off school at the first hint of winter weather? The reason dates back to the late 70s. I was teaching in Floyd County VA at the time. Patrick County Schools had a brand spanking new Superintendent. Evidently he was one of those guys who knows it all and isn’t particularly open to advice. He was down in Stewart of course at the low end of the county when a marginal winter storm came through. It was rain in Stewart but a few miles up the mountain a raging ice storm was ongoing. When his people called him in the early AM to tell him school needed to be cancelled he told then they must be crazy because he had just come in from checking the weather and all it was doing was raining. They tried to tell him what was going on up on the mountain but he would not be swayed, so off the buses went. Over 20 buses ended up off the side of the roads in various places. It was pure luck that no one was injured or worse. The roads up on the mountain were so slippery that many of the parents who went out with their four wheel drive vehicles to rescue their kids also ended up in ditches. The next school board meeting made local TV News because the Superintendent was almost lynched by angry parents. For years afterward if there was even a mention of possible winter weather you could expect to see...PATRICK COUNtY SCHOOLS CLOSED FOR TEACHERS AND STUDENTS....do the slow crawl across the bottom of your TV screen. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 All of a sudden the long range looks ripe with possibility. Let’s go!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I'm not falling for the Canadian again. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 59 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I'm not falling for the Canadian again. TW Over the last week, I was supposed to get 10” of fantasy snow and 1“ of fantasy ice depending on which model was yanking my chain at the time. Fool me once... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Incoming on the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 nice setup + arctic outbreak behind it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Wow said: nice setup + arctic outbreak behind it You left the freezer door open, John. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Cold chasing moisture, then suppression city. Two setups that never work in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 ... then the SW wave kicks out post arctic high... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Cold chasing moisture, then suppression city. Two setups that never work in NC.I’m feeling you here. Unless it’s a prime time classic Miller A, I ain’t buying it until proven wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Cold chasing moisture, then suppression city. Two setups that never work in NC. You are aldi brand widremann. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 You really can’t ask for a better look than that on the long range euro. Very excite not to mention the gfs/cmc/euro all agree on a true arctic outbreak in the long range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 the key here is that SW wave breaking off rather than fully phasing in and dumping everything out west. that will kickstart a great setup for us. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Cold chasing moisture, then suppression city. Two setups that never work in NC. I remember when KVegas was an optimist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I remember when KVegas was an optimist 2020 man, what can I say. It creeped into my weather outlook. Seriously though, we've been burned so many times in just the last couple of years that most of us dont even know which model(s) to trust anymore. Its not as much not being an optimist as it is just being gunshy. I hate cliffdiving. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: You are aldi brand widremann. I'll see what I can do to elevate my status to Whole Foods. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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