FLweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not trying to sound like Debbie downer. But looking at wrf and nam front end thump will probably not existent. Before WAA takes over. Only bright side Nam develops secondary HP in VA as main batch of precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 For anyone with 6z Euro, can you comment or post on the ice map for those of us on the southern edge of the wintry precip? Thanks, TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I thought the euro is 0z and 12z? Hey mods, has anyone ever posted the adjusted real times of model runs. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, The Alchemist said: I thought the euro is 0z and 12z? Hey mods, has anyone ever posted the adjusted real times of model runs. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk subtract 5hrs for ET. euro runs 4x a day now 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z. The 6z and 18z do not have all or full up-to-date inputs the 0z and 12z use 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 So question? I haven’t had time to look at models yet. When you’re all saying “bad trends or not good “ are we talking Just snow chance has dissipated? Or are we talking ICE and sleet as well? Some of us like sleet/ice lol Sorry I’d look for myself but I’m getting married tomorrow and I’m busy. I’ve tried to follow along with maps but I haven’t seen a FRZN/IP Map since yesterday Eve. Just SN maps. So I’m just curious? I’m hoping to hve some time this afternoon. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It is unfortunate we couldn't pull in a Miller A with the ground now primed. Anyway I am expecting a non event here and front enders are always lousy anyway because you lose whatever falls to rain in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I really thought this could be the one that broke the streak here but it's trending like every other winter event here the past 25 months. In the gutter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: I really thought this could be the one that broke the streak here but it's trending like every other winter event here the past 25 months. In the gutter Look at the 12Z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Look at the 12Z HRRR Not falling for the HRRR again, I think its nothing more than a nuisance event to rain here. You could see more serious ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Not falling for the HRRR again, I think its nothing more than a nuisance event to rain here. You could see more serious ice 3k NAM coming in much colder through 6Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I’ve seen this before. 9/10 CAD events 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3k NAM got rid of the splotchy precip look and really beefed up the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Still borderline here and won't be much accrual at 32. Needs to trend colder. The chances of getting snow are slim to none here I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Still borderline here and won't be much accrual at 32. Needs to trend colder. The chances of getting snow are slim to none here I'm afraid. Love the hunt but as we progress in time would rather hunt snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This thing could trend colder you guys.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I’m expecting 32.5 and rain here in Northern Randolph County. Lol. Any icing will be considered a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Weird. Looks a little warmer at the surface but way more ice this run on the 3K. Would love to see it trend towards sleet and a touch of snow, but if my only option is 31 and rain, I’ll pass and take 33 and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Weird. Looks a little warmer at the surface but way more ice this run on the 3K. Would love to see it trend towards sleet and a touch of snow, but if my only option is 31 and rain, I’ll pass and take 33 and rain. Yeah, I agree. I like my power. Haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 these models are like a roller coaster. lol but ground will be alot colder this time with whatever falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Canadian sticking to its guns. Verbatim it would be an inch of frz rain on the i40 corridor from Asheville to the triad and just north of the triangle. Sleet fest just north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12Z NAM tries to bring in a period of FZRA to north central NC on Sunday... the timing saves a lot of central NC. If the precip sped up, it would be more of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Canadian sticking to its guns. Verbatim it would be an inch of frz rain on the i40 corridor from Asheville to the triad and just north of the triangle. Sleet fest just north of there. edit: it’s certainly overdone given that most areas are 32-33 Icon is similar if not colder. And the icon is usually too warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: 12Z NAM tries to bring in a period of FZRA to north central NC on Sunday... the timing saves a lot of central NC. If the precip sped up, it would be more of an issue. That's one thing I have noticed, the timing is getting slower and slower which is allowing more time to warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Icon is similar if not colder. And the icon is usually too warm at the surface. That’s something I’ve really been watching. It doesn’t have a designated snow vs ice vs rain delineation built in but it def is normally a “warmer” model. Something to keep an eye on. It is bone chilling outside right now so it’s gotta at least lay some good groundwork or preceding conditions for this storm for some of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looking at Canadian RDPS that 12z run is damn cold! Implies a good amount of freezing rain for the triangle. It all comes to how far the cold air can bleed down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Looking at Canadian RDPS that 12z run is damn cold! Implies a good amount of freezing rain for the triangle. It all comes to how far the cold air can bleed down. It is risky business to bet against the RGEM in any form in a damming scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 26 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Canadian sticking to its guns. Verbatim it would be an inch of frz rain on the i40 corridor from Asheville to the triad and just north of the triangle. Sleet fest just north of there. edit: it’s certainly overdone given that most areas are 32-33 RGEM keeps me between 28-31 for most if not all the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The RGEM absolutely crushes 85N in the triad and triangle to the state line in Virginia with an awful ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: It is risky business to bet against the RGEM in any form in a damming scenario. I tend to think however it does run a little too cold in some instances but this atmosphere we have preceding the storm is pretty damn cold. I mean even some of those zr numbers if you cut them in half are still a terrible scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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