wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS still pretty much sucks unless you are VA north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS still struggling with thermals on 0z runs. With Synoptics however it has really trended toward the euro this run. I’m not sure it will really be able to correct itself in the thermal department but with the primary SLP it is not somewhat more west/northwest of where it was at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: GFS still pretty much sucks unless you are VA north Do a loop of the last 3 runs for surface temps and you can see how it’s folding. 2-3 degrees colder each run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: GFS still pretty much sucks unless you are VA north Give it time my man! There is a noticeable shift. It’s just such incremental baby steps that it’s annoying as sh*t it wants to transfer a bit quicker as well this go around and never gets the primary into OH now. This is out at 72. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 First post on this forum, you can see the low trending to the south and west some each run as well as the wedge building in and becoming more pronounced. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WXNewton said: First post on this forum, you can see the low trending to the south and west some each run as well as the wedge building in and becoming more pronounced. Excellent first post. Definitely a good representation of how the GFS is trending. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: First post on this forum, you can see the low trending to the south and west some each run as well as the wedge building in and becoming more pronounced. The thing with it as well though is the system is being impinged on by confluence in New England. These are steps we all def want to see for wintry weather. We will still get the thump but it will help to where the mid levels won’t get flooded with warmth. Welcome btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If anything GFS is uber wet! @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment if some of this falls as freezing rain for you could be problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: If anything GFS is uber wet! @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment if some of this falls as freezing rain for you could be problems. Yikes. I’m hoping to hold onto snow/sleet longer than forecasted. With the wind today and tonight, I’m guessing these trees are pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: If anything GFS is uber wet! @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment if some of this falls as freezing rain for you could be problems. I’m located at the 1.4 inch mark so who knows lol been crazy weather year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Does anyone know what the RGEM’s bias is? I thought it generally ran a little cold if anything but I don’t recall it being a southern outlier. Big difference on 0z run. Way south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Does anyone know what the RGEM’s bias is? I thought it generally ran a little cold if anything but I don’t recall it being a southern outlier. Big difference on 0z run. Way south! The one thing I notice is temps are running 7-8 degrees colder on average for the low on Saturday compared to most of the other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 0z CMC is a significant winter storm for northern NC, southern va, Central va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: The one thing I notice is temps are running 7-8 degrees colder on average for the low on Saturday compared to most of the other models. Yea that’s what I was alluding to. 0z CMC still looks might impressive with WAA thump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Man , it's lights out on the CMC .... over an 1" of ZR around Greensboro, with a couple inches of sleet near the NC/VA border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z CMC is a significant winter storm for northern NC, southern va, Central va Also hinting at a possible deform band swinging through on Monday. I know some other guidance has shown that possibility as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FocoWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 That’s some pretty crazy cold on the LR gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 That'd be sweet if I was still living in my old home of Scranton, Pa. :-/Good grief. Someone take the pens away from him. Pathetic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 UK is a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: UK is a nice hit You can clearly see the finger wedge settled into place. Would like to see the wedge more rounded out at the base with a push further south. Seems like the confluence over NE is causing more of ENE wind v.s. NNE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: UK is a nice hit Looking through the UK temp panels I don't think any of that in NC in the Triad or points south and east is snow. Maybe a few flakes before going to a little sleet, some marginal ZR and then rain. Even farther N and W most of it is mixed. As you get into Virginia it looks more likely to stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Already have lift tickets for Beech Mountain on Sunday. Really hoping for mostly all snow event at that elevation (4500+) as that sleet / frozen rain / ice is not fun. Drive up there will certainly be interesting as will hit different types of precip if these models verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro isn't very good and not trending south that's for sure. This is for I 40 areas of NC and foothills/mtns. It's still pretty good for Roanoke to Lynchburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 06Z NAM, and the 00z Canadian still showing frozen precip for central NC and points north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 doesn't look good when I see not much activity going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Tacoma said: doesn't look good when I see not much activity going on. Yes not looking good... we just can win this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 We will still have some wintry weather it appears and folks will get back in here once they get stirring around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 https://imgur.com/2eWCrQg @BornAgain13 6z Euro is a big hit down here. GFS is a juice bomb. Shows 1.92” of qpf for ROA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: https://imgur.com/2eWCrQg @BornAgain13 6z Euro is a big hit down here. GFS is a juice bomb. Shows 1.92” of qpf for ROA Yeah the GFS pastes you , the EURO actually ticked south a small bit at 0z... still not where the NC Folks need it to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tealsnowball Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Roanoke seems to be on the cusp of all sorts of p-types. It's either going to be a snowfall approaching double digits or a 3-5 inch "crunchy" snow with lots of sleet mixed in. It should be fun to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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