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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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18z Nam and 18z RDPS Both end up with LP sitting on top of Manteo hr 84, actually sandwiched between Albemarle/Pamlico Sounds: Draw a line back to Missouri and thats how it ends up transfering, shaking out. Euro 12z Op was a little futher north at 12z in Illinois and ended up transfering off Delmarva/Tidewater area. I beleive. So that trajectory probably , may be what caused a warmer 12z euro op compared to the 6z. Interupted cold feed/confluence etc. Just a hunch

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Just now, strongwxnc said:

Colder. Man that system is on the move. Good NWSF after it moves out.

 

I beleive Mon/Tues into Wed may be longest, best NWF event in a long time. Duration will be there, but who gets the ideal heading. some micro area could be in a treat as the LP parks itself off/stalls/crawls MA Coastline

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44 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Yeah it’s folding like a dish rag. 

Yet some people are saying the Euro is trending toward gfs and vice versa... :facepalm: @BornAgain13 my question is and I get we’re still 3 days out and you may want to play it conservative but almost every model I’ve seen or viewed has 9” or more of snow for ROA. Even the ensembles are at least 6-7” plus yet just as of this morning we had “snow showers” in our forecast”

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44 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yet some people are saying the Euro is trending toward gfs and vice versa... :facepalm: @BornAgain13 my question is and I get we’re still 3 days out and you may want to play it conservative but almost every model I’ve seen or viewed has 9” or more of snow for ROA. Even the ensembles are at least 6-7” plus yet just as of this morning we had “snow showers” in our forecast”

I believe you are in a great spot , if trends continue,  that forecast will change from snow showers to heavy snow.... for my area just SE of there in Dry Fork , I would need it to keep trending south... but if I get a few inches before it changes to ice , I'll consider that a win

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11 minutes ago, griteater said:

That's an amazing looking pattern on the GFS days 10-15.  Cold shot, then everything starts moving west from Greenland thru N Canada, then cold air heads south.  Make it happen

2iCB6y4.png

rrTf461.png

That looks delicious!  Valentine's Day bombogenesis....make it happen!  We seriously need a better February for this subforum or psychiatric help will be required.

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19 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I believe you are in a great spot , if trends continue,  that forecast will change from snow showers to heavy snow.... for my area just SE of there in Dry Fork , I would need it to keep trending south... but if I get a few inches before it changes to ice , I'll consider that a win

Have you been tracking Euro and Ukie for your area? What are they showing? I’ve been so focused on mine I haven’t really looked beyond it. I think those models are in the cat bird seat with Canadian in portraying something very similar overall. I’ve also been on MA forum because there’s some really good meteorologists floating through there right now getting very good analysis. 

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3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Honestly though Grit, Didn't we see this progged a few weeks ago for late January or am I misremembering

Yeah, always temper the long range...I do think the blocking is going to renew itself (with an assist down the  road from the nor'easter going up the coast), but the SE ridge / La Nina tendency could be problematic

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