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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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41 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

It just doesn’t seem likely that the second event gets drove into Nashville with the blocking in place without popping a secondary coastal. Trash.

Compared  to its 18z run which was a lot better track wise, the 50/50 is way weaker on that run. We need that Thursday/Friday system to really bomb out in the 50/50 region I feel.

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2 hours ago, Buckfever2 said:

How far SW is it showing snow into Georgia? 

I-20ish and it will change a gazillion times in the next 10 days 

10 hours ago, FLweather said:

That's actually a good  thing. 

I’m well aware thanks ;) I’ve repeatedly said since early fall that this is the best look we’ve had in about a decade and I expected the pattern to flip back to greater winter weather opportunities in mid January. Will we cash in? We live in the south and only time will tell, but being deprived of winter weather these past years has me wanting to throat punch patience in this final stretch of waiting :P 

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1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Also , has anyone looked at the EPS for the Friday system , actually has right many members with decent accumulations... Allan tweeted about it a little bit ago

Yes, it has trended colder and colder with each EURO run and I don't think it's done yet. This one might have some legs. Have been watching it on the various models.

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Climo wise, this would be confined to NW NC and northward with a Miller B low transfer provided the s/w digs well into the deep south. Any further south and it'll pop a gulf low and it's Miller A ala jan 96.  Some of the models 5 days out for that storm were showing this kind of set up initially...

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Still a lot of uncertainty on what’s going to eject and when for the follow up storm around Monday of next week. It appears like if the timing is right we could get a decent surface wedge with that wave with fairly a low dew point airmass. Would be nice to not have to rely on top down cooling/heavy rates like is shown with the first storm. 
 

of course the first storm is far from ironed out as well...but there’s no question boundary layer temps are going to be a concern  with that one even if things work out perfectly. 

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8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS Para has the snow , but further north... Shows a Snowstorm for most of VA 

Actually has two systems. Friday/Saturday  and Monday/Tuesday. 

Second system I85 north

Definitely noticed on the para next week looking like the southern stream becomes more active. 

So the models will probably change quite a bit from now to next week. 

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5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS Para has the snow , but further north... Shows a Snowstorm for most of VA 

Yes slower with the low transfer. Pulls the primary low pulls into KY while the secondary moves through GA. OP GFS was further south.

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