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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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Just now, wncsnow said:

Not a bad run but the low has been trending north slightly the past few runs. Need that confluence to be stronger and of course having the CAD high a bit stronger wouldn't hurt. 

Yep slight north trend overall since yesterday with temperatures, let’s see what happens going forward.  It’s throwing the warm advection precip right at us at the moment 

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Not a bad run but the low has been trending north slightly the past few runs. Need that confluence to be stronger and of course having the CAD high a bit stronger wouldn't hurt. 

Kinda surprised the CAD didn’t have a stronger signal given the dewpoints below zero in the NE.

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Of all the potential CAD'S we've had this far, I feel this one has the most potential to trend stronger once we get to Hi-Res guidance. As long as the high is of good strength and gets in a good location, this one actually has some legit cold to work with in the NE for the first time this winter.

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Of all the potential CAD'S we've had this far, I feel this one has the most potential to trend stronger once we get to Hi-Res guidance. As long as the high is of good strength and gets in a good location, this one actually has some legit cold to work with in the NE for the first time this winter.

Will be quite interested to see what GSP says in the long term AFD this afternoon.

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2 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Looking at 12 UTC GFS, still like the period of 10th - 12th.  Maybe the coldest air of the winter across the upper Midwest just prior to this time frame with some 20 below readings.  Looks to spill south and eastward with a possible low development across deep south.  Of course this morning's 06 UTC showed a major winter storm for Brownsville and northern Mexico during this time.  If Monterey, Mexico and Madrid, Spain (18" on Jan 9) wind up with more snow than me this winter, I'll be pissed :P

Coldest air in the N Hemisphere getting deposited into Southern Canada and the Northern Plains in the extended range, probably with another round of high latitude blocking developing....some SE ridging will fight back though

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20 minutes ago, griteater said:

Coldest air in the N Hemisphere getting deposited into Southern Canada and the Northern Plains in the extended range, probably with another round of high latitude blocking developing....some SE ridging will fight back though

Yep Grit.  You can see the SE ridge trying to flex its muscle.  Hopefully it remains at bay and helps steer a SW into the southeast.

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