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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I love the consistency in the Euro, but really would like to see a bit more support from the other globals.  Having said that, my hopes are much higher that the GFS will join the Euro than if it were the other way around.  
TW

To be honest it has a lot of support in Icon, Canadian and at end of the Nam run it looks more like Euro than it does GFS. GFS always ends up playing catch-up in these types of situations. It’s the last to catch onto cad and normally tries to drive the primary too far into the cad. Something to keep an eye on down the road here. Confluence also a big factor in the northeast. Add Ukmet to that as well

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10 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

That air mass to the north is just so cold, it would probably overcome a bad placed LP. One thing I just saw on the 12Z ICON that bears watching is that it’s popping a meso high in VA. 

I've been reading through the thread tonight after I got off work. This caught my eye after the reading your comment...

The icon showing a HP over the mountains. Indicates 4 things.

1. someone is going to get screwed.(lee side shadow)

2. cad  will be stronger 

3. That's a clear indication of a leeside trough.

4. Models still haven't a clue. Placement of SLP and h850 lp.

It's clear the cold coming in. It's clear that there should be some sort of CAD. It's clear that it wouldn't take much.

It's a good probably that surface temps up to 900-925mb will border line I85/I-40 north.

 

This is for Thursday into Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Thing of beauty. Look how cold the short range Canadian is Saturday morning 

sfct.us_ma (3).png

Building off this the Icon is coming in even colder than 18z run. HP at 96 goes from 1035 to 1038. Big time cold press funneling down out of New England.

@102 light snows breaking out over NC mountains. SLP over SW MO. 1037 HP. This looks to start the 0z runs off on the right foot.

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Trend loop on the Euro Ensemble Mean for Sunday at 1PM (last 9 runs).  Some good things going on here.  Trough off the west coast is deepening and slower to move east...western ridge is building...all the while, the confluent flow over PA and NY is holding...forcing our Miss River trough to trend south.  This could continue to trend south a little more IMO based on these trends, especially if the confluent flow over PA/NY continues to hold.  Also notice the building ridge over the Great Lakes which increases the surface high pressure SE of Hudson Bay.

Y0mEHzK.gif

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12 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS continues to be completely different with the cold retreating quickly and system going way north 

The GFS was hot garbage. Para looked ok for decent thump to dry slot. It’s pretty much most guidance against gfs so there’s that but then a lot of us are actually rooting for the gfs for Thursday’s system so who knows. 

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