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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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Just now, kvegas-wx said:

HRRR with a nice 2-3 inches for a good chunk of central NC.  When was the last time we saw nearly every model evolve "into" a storm within 60 hours?

Heck, I end as snow in Rockingham. I would run naked through the streets for this. I’m not biting though . 

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7 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

The HRRR is the Oprah of models.  You get snow and you get snow and you get snow and you get snow...

5206B5B1-B795-46F0-9F93-570DF2C8DDC2.jpeg

I swear I'm looking at the same 18z on TT and only seeing 3 inches across most of the state.  It's almost like I'm missing the last frame or something.  Either way, impressive!

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6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I swear I'm looking at the same 18z on TT and only seeing 3 inches across most of the state.  It's almost like I'm missing the last frame or something.  Either way, impressive!

You're probably looking at the more likely (though still debatable) Kuchera output rather than the 10:1 output that was posted above.

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2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

You're probably looking at the more likely (though still debatable) Kuchera output rather than the 10:1 output that was posted above.

Yea that Kuchera ratio burned in earlier this month constantly showing 3 to 6 inches plus when we both got less than an inch. I do hope the central NC and eastern NC folks get a surprise though 

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4 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

You're probably looking at the more likely (though still debatable) Kuchera output rather than the 10:1 output that was posted above.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021012618&fh=48

I'm filtered for 10:1 output.  I'm sure I'm screwing something up but after looking at models until midnight last night, I have model fatigue.

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2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I'm at 39 and it just doesnt get there. You'd think the mesoscale features you'd need to see the totals of the GFS and HRRR would be visible to the NAM unless they are both drastically wrong.

The 18z NAM gives me 2” IMBY. (I’d be shocked to get that much.) You’re right though.  It’s anemic compared to the recent GFS, para, and HRRR runs.

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