Icy Hot Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 44 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Good God Hard to beat 30-40 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The latest HRRR is starting to look like the latest GFS did for middle Tennessee. Not a ton of snow, but better. That might be good sign as this current run develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 51 minutes ago, jjwxman said: Lights out for me 15 miles south of GSO. Anyone have access to the Euro freezing rain accumulation maps? I’m about 50 miles south of GSO so not that far. Cold rain here but at least it’s something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Y’all are going to like the 18z HRRR. Wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Y’all are going to like the 18z HRRR. Wow! Wow is right. Maybe not actual @Wow though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Lol, HRRR might be a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Y’all are going to like the 18z HRRR. Wow! Sign me up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Lol, HRRR might be a snowstorm For real. Drives the snow line well south of FAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 RAH has boosted up their snow map estimates for Thursday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 HRRR with a nice 2-3 inches for a good chunk of central NC. When was the last time we saw nearly every model evolve "into" a storm within 60 hours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The HRRR is the Oprah of models. You get snow and you get snow and you get snow and you get snow... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Looks like ~5 inches on the HRRR for RDU: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, kvegas-wx said: HRRR with a nice 2-3 inches for a good chunk of central NC. When was the last time we saw nearly every model evolve "into" a storm within 60 hours? Heck, I end as snow in Rockingham. I would run naked through the streets for this. I’m not biting though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Snowing 10z Thursday morning on the entirety of the NC Coastline from Corolla to Calabash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: The HRRR is the Oprah of models. You get snow and you get snow and you get snow and you get snow... ...unless you are in the immediate lee of the Apps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Anyone have EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: The HRRR is the Oprah of models. You get snow and you get snow and you get snow and you get snow... I swear I'm looking at the same 18z on TT and only seeing 3 inches across most of the state. It's almost like I'm missing the last frame or something. Either way, impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Anyone have EPS? Which event? it pretty much agrees with the OPs assessment of both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: I swear I'm looking at the same 18z on TT and only seeing 3 inches across most of the state. It's almost like I'm missing the last frame or something. Either way, impressive! You're probably looking at the more likely (though still debatable) Kuchera output rather than the 10:1 output that was posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, calculus1 said: You're probably looking at the more likely (though still debatable) Kuchera output rather than the 10:1 output that was posted above. Yea that Kuchera ratio burned in earlier this month constantly showing 3 to 6 inches plus when we both got less than an inch. I do hope the central NC and eastern NC folks get a surprise though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, Grayman said: Heck, I end as snow in Rockingham. I would run naked through the streets for this. I’m not biting though . I hope you get something this time. You just never know with these things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, calculus1 said: You're probably looking at the more likely (though still debatable) Kuchera output rather than the 10:1 output that was posted above. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021012618&fh=48 I'm filtered for 10:1 output. I'm sure I'm screwing something up but after looking at models until midnight last night, I have model fatigue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Doesnt look like the NAM will look anything like the GFS or the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Doesnt look like the NAM will look anything like the GFS or the HRRR It looks slightly better than the last NAM to me, but only at the frame I’m at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: It looks better to me, but only at the frame I’m at. I'm at 39 and it just doesnt get there. You'd think the mesoscale features you'd need to see the totals of the GFS and HRRR would be visible to the NAM unless they are both drastically wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18 minutes ago, calculus1 said: ...unless you are in the immediate lee of the Apps. My plan to create a barrier and hold the snow ransom is almost complete! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I'm at 39 and it just doesnt get there. You'd think the mesoscale features you'd need to see the totals of the GFS and HRRR would be visible to the NAM unless they are both drastically wrong. The 18z NAM gives me 2” IMBY. (I’d be shocked to get that much.) You’re right though. It’s anemic compared to the recent GFS, para, and HRRR runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I would lean toward the NAM at this point. Given thermal profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, PackGrad05 said: I would lean toward the NAM at this point. Given thermal profiles NAM has trended wetter and wetter each run. I think it has a dry bias recently. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Oh my god, the hrrr. I'm thinking I put in my "doc, he's dead" comment way too early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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