BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Should be noted the euro digs Fridays low 150 miles SE of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: Should be noted the euro digs Fridays low 150 miles SE of the GFS. But very limited with moisture and cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 35 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Should be noted the euro digs Fridays low 150 miles SE of the GFS. Pretty crazy how both the events at 144 and 210 in N AL and N GA are basically both rain due to lack of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 After looking at the EPS members for next weekend , it actually isn't to bad for my neck of the woods... right many members show a decent accumulation... still a long ways to go on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 59 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: What is this showing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 One heck of a high latitude ridge that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 54 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: What is this showing?? You’ve got pretty much a perfect pattern. -NAO, +PNA, -AO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: You’ve got pretty much a perfect pattern. -NAO, +PNA, -AO. The EPS and GEFS look spectacular in extended and it is moving up in time. At the time stamp you posted it’s almost a textbook Miller A composite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 You are all forgetting one big issue- The vodka cold is all in Siberia. Canada is well above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: You are all forgetting one big issue- The vodka cold is all in Siberia. Canada is well above average. We don’t need Canada to be vodka cold. Would it be necessary for heavy snow and temps in the teens? Probably. If Canada was full of extreme cold, we’d be talking about an I-10 snowstorm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 So we've got a ULL on the 8th that might make some mischief on the 8th and then a s/w to watch following up on the 12th that could deliver a gulf low 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: We don’t need Canada to be vodka cold. Would it be necessary for heavy snow and temps in the teens? Probably. If Canada was full of extreme cold, we’d be talking about an I-10 snowstorm. Well-stated. NC and VA tend to not cash out in vodka cold outbreaks. Suppression is not our friend. We tend to excel when it’s moderately cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 25 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: We don’t need Canada to be vodka cold. Would it be necessary for heavy snow and temps in the teens? Probably. If Canada was full of extreme cold, we’d be talking about an I-10 snowstorm. We don't need vodka cold but this is marginal cold even for favored locations. If you are south of 85 and 40 it's going to be tough to get any wintry IMO. Mountains are prime spot as per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 hours ago, BullCityWx said: I’ve been waiting for this to arrive since November. Just a little more patience 37 minutes ago, Wow said: So we've got a ULL on the 8th that might make some mischief on the 8th and then a s/w to watch following up on the 12th that could deliver a gulf low Oh the possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 At the very least, we have no torch for the foreseeable future. Tomorrow will be the warmest day for at least 10 days, and it will still only be around 50 in the Triad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: We don't need vodka cold but this is marginal cold even for favored locations. If you are south of 85 and 40 it's going to be tough to get any wintry IMO. Mountains are prime spot as per usual. I mean you can’t argue that but that’s true almost every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Eric Webb: EPS is consistently showing signs of a strong mid-level ridge north of Alaska late in the 2nd week of Jan as the SSWE begins to directly impact the arctic troposphere. Once this occurs, colder air masses will enter N America, & w/ it, better chances of snow in the southern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The euro control was on its way to a very nice solution at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 31 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The euro control was on its way to a very nice solution at 18z. Images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said: I’ve been waiting for this to arrive since November. Just a little more patience Oh the possibilities That's actually a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Here is the Euro Control run at 500mb and at the Surface. Wave enters the west coast in Oregon and is forced to slow down and dive down into the SE as the flow backs up over the Canadian Maritimes and North Atlantic with the developing blocking. Simply put, you want this wave to be as strong as possible, and tracking a bit south of you as the temperatures needed for snow would come on the N and NW side of that track as heights crash. Stronger wave = stronger temperature crash. Surface temps would be the last to fall, so things like time of day could be a factor in a marginal temp setup. You could make the case that the small wave tracking thru the Great Lakes toward the end of the loop is disrupting flow so that the surface high above the Great Lakes isn't allowed to build in to help the low level temperatures out ahead of the storm (2nd loop)....but on the prior run, that small wave wasn't there and it didn't make a difference. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just had to mention the GL low didn't you Grit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Just had to mention the GL low didn't you Grit. Don't think it matters much in this setup though as I don't think the setup is going to allow for low level cold air to move in with a well positioned sfc high to the north, but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The 18z GFS v16 has an abrupt ridge going up out west from day 10 on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, griteater said: Here is the Euro Control run at 500mb and at the Surface. Wave enters the west coast in Oregon and is forced to slow down and dive down into the SE as the flow backs up over the Canadian Maritimes and North Atlantic with the developing blocking. Simply put, you want this wave to be as strong as possible, and tracking a bit south of you as the temperatures needed for snow would come on the N and NW side of that track as heights crash. Stronger wave = stronger temperature crash. Surface temps would be the last to fall, so things like time of day could be a factor in a marginal temp setup. You could make the case that the small wave tracking thru the Great Lakes toward the end of the loop is disrupting flow so that the surface high above the Great Lakes isn't allowed to build in to help the low level temperatures out ahead of the storm (2nd loop)....but on the prior run, that small wave wasn't there and it didn't make a difference. Great to see the block doing work and putting storms where we would need them to be. Just a bit hard to get excited about these storms though with surface temps so marginal. GEFS temps are warm through the whole run. Waiting hopefully and patiently for something to change that will inject cold air into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just another reminder the GFS is trash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Just another reminder the GFS is trash. Para GFS looked better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 0z CMC is a southern VA/Northern NC snowstorm next weekend.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 GFS Para coming in with the GULF LOW... taken Verbatim , widespread snowstorm for around the 12th.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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