BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS shows a ton of frontogenesis in the upper right quadrant of the low(from GSO to east of RDU). A LOT of lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 That would be some limb cracking paste if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 So what are we to believe ? The GFS or the NAM. The NAM isn't much but all of a sudden the GFS is smoking us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: So what are we to believe ? The GFS or the NAM. The NAM isn't much but all of a sudden the GFS is smoking us. Who knows at this point. Starring watching HRR later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 One thing I noticed on this run of the GFS is it has cooled off by nearly ten degrees tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Up until ten minutes ago, no one thought a call map was necessary for Thursday’s early morning event. (Still might not be.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Strange times these are with model runs... strange times indeed. GFS trends through multiple runs now to a snowy solution, para remains rock solid on its snowstorm solution, and were inside 36 hours. NAM suites say no go and euro says enjoy your token flurries. CMC has had snow most of its runs. Would hate to be a forecaster tomorrow night. Literally could be a localized rate driven 4-5 inches with a forecast of nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: One thing I noticed on this run of the GFS is it has cooled off by nearly ten degrees tomorrow afternoon. It’s not going to get as warm today as the modeling was predicting originally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: It’s not going to get as warm today as the modeling was predicting originally. Not even close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Should be noted that the RGEM has the same area of heavy precip, it's just further south where it's warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Up until ten minutes ago, no one thought a call map was necessary for Thursday’s early morning event. (Still might not be.) Love how everyone’s held off on starting a thread for it. No one wants to get blamed for another lackluster cold rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Canadian has remained fairly consistent. Widespread light accumulation from triad east through triangle. Maybe slightly more in NE N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Love how everyone’s held off on starting a thread for it. No one wants to get blamed for another lackluster cold rain Maybe we should ban event-specific threads. LOL. We’ve been jinxing ourselves for years and didn’t even realize it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Love how everyone’s held off on starting a thread for it. No one wants to get blamed for another lackluster cold rain Nobody wants to jinx it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I think the GFS will be renamed the WTF model soon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Solid ensemble agreement. What is life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 FWIW....Sref mean is .086 QPF and .28 snow at GSO for the Thursday event.Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Literally every member of the GEFS... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: Solid ensemble agreement. What is life In any other storm I’d say this has legs. Trending correctly inside 36 hours. In this situation, it’s more of a WTH is happening feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Solid ensemble agreement. What is life Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Step away from the keyboard now if you are even thinking about starting a thread for this one. Just leave it here, just this once, and see what happens. Then we'll have conclusive proof of our jinx. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: In any other storm I’d say this has legs. Trending correctly inside 36 hours. In this situation, it’s more of a WTH is happening feeling I figured it was just the OP gone rogue but this is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, kvegas-wx said: Step away from the keyboard now if you are even thinking about starting a thread for this one. Just leave it here, just this once, and see what happens. Then we'll have conclusive proof of our jinx. Exactly! No thread for this! If we get nothing, so be it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Canadian has our mixed bag weekend storm. Would be lights out for some 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 13 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Folks in the RAH and RNK offices right now... or this... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 This is the craziest thing I've seen. (well, not really since I've lived in central NC my whole life). Local meteorologists must be going crazy.... You also have to remember that most of these model outputs assume 10:1 and combine sleet/snow, etc... Looking at soundings, it really doesn't cool off enough until the end, and then barely if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I'm Supposed too be at or around 65 F + by now,, still setting @ 53F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 13 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Exactly! No thread for this! If we get nothing, so be it. We can do an obs thread if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, frazdaddy said: We can do an obs thread if need be. But only after the entire I85 corridor has at least 2" on the ground. We'll need a running start to truly overcome the jinx. Edit - how cool would it be to end up with back to back surprise events only 3 days apart! I love model suspense. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Ukie still looks promising for the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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